There’s a particular writer at the Athletic who isn’t a believer in the 2024 San Francisco 49ers.
After naming the 49ers an offseason loser because they lost Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw, and hired a new defensive coordinator, Mike Jones of the Athletic listed San Francisco among the overrated teams heading into this NFL season.
Again, Jones focuses heavily on the losses on the defensive line:
Kyle Shanahan always gives them a chance, and Brock Purdy again has a talented supporting cast, although Brandon Aiyuk faces an uncertain future. Questions loom over the defense, however, with first-year coordinator Nick Sorensen directing a unit that lost Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw to free agency and must deal with the extended absence of Dre Greenlaw, who is recovering from Achilles surgery. The 49ers hope to put another heartbreaking Super Bowl defeat in the past and make another run at a ring, but doing so could prove more challenging than many expect.
It’s worth noting the 49ers replaced Armstead and Kinlaw with Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott. The fixation on Kinlaw is interesting given the defensive tackle’s general lack of effectiveness last season, but it wouldn’t be Earth-shattering if Elliott was a better rotational DT option for San Francisco this season. Whether Collins and others can replace Armstead in the aggregate remains to be seen and is certainly a sizable question mark for the 49ers to answer this year.
The Greenlaw absence is also a pretty significant blow. San Francisco signed former All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell to replace him. Second-year LBs Dee Winters and Jalen Graham could also be in the mix to start at Will LB, but none of those three are liable to be as effective as Greenlaw is.
Alas, calling the 49ers ‘overrated’ when they were a couple plays from winning the Super Bowl last year seems like a stretch based on the reasoning listed. After all, both Pro Football Focus and ESPN agree San Francisco has the best roster in the NFL.
A better argument would focus more heavily on the 49ers’ offensive line which they made only marginal moves to improve this offseason. There’s a case to be made they could conceivably be worse on the offensive front which would certainly have an impact on Purdy. Last year in his first full season as a starter Purdy had pretty good turnover luck which could wind up coming back to bite him and the 49ers this season.
There are also some questions in the secondary with uncertainty about who will start in nickel packages with cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward. Strong safety Talanoa Hufanga is coming back from an ACL tear which leaves a question mark about whether he’ll return to All-Pro form, and second-year safety Ji’Ayir Brown is an unproven commodity who figures to start alongside Hufanga.
Those are a lot of hurdles for Sorensen to clear in his first season as a defensive coordinator, which are much bigger reasons to have concerns than just the losses of Armstead and Kinlaw.
Injury luck was also, for the most part, on the 49ers’ side last season. They had the injuries to Hufanga in Week 11 and to Greenlaw during the Super Bowl, but outside of that they avoided major injuries and were relatively healthy going into the final game of the season. It wouldn’t be irrational if a person wanted to bet against injury luck for them again in 2024.
For now though on paper the 49ers figure to field one of the best teams in the NFL. Whether they can be just the second team since the turn of the century to return to the Super Bowl after losing it remains to be seen, but saying they’re ‘overrated’ for the reasons listed in the Athletic feels a tad off base.