Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres

Coming off consecutive road series victories in Cincinnati and Baltimore, the Milwaukee Brewers (10-4) will return home on Monday to begin a series with the San Diego Padres (8-9, pending Sunday evening’s results).

The Padres are in an interesting spot as a franchise. After consecutive years of shocking the baseball world with how much they spent trying to build a championship team and coming up short, they trimmed payroll this season, letting Josh Hader leave in free agency and trading Juan Soto to the New York Yankees a year before he is due to hit free agency himself. But the team still has plenty of talent, both in terms of potential all-star level established veterans (Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish), solid role players (Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth), exciting young talent (Jackson Merrill, Luis Campusano), and a player with legitimate MVP potential, if you believe his considerable talent does not require performance-enhancing drugs to be effective (Fernando Tatis Jr.).

On top of that, the Padres made another surprising acquisition this offseason, beating major contenders to an agreement with the White Sox for Dylan Cease, just one year removed from finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting. With the pressure dialed back a bit this season—no one seems to expect them to contend with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West crown, as they have in previous seasons—many observers of the game see a team that could sneak up on people and contend, in a strange inverse of last season.

So far this season, the results have been mixed, as San Diego sits at 8-9 on the young season. They’ve gotten solid offensive contributions from Cronenworth (.277/.333/.508, three home runs, 14 RBI), Tatis (.288/.347/.545, five homers, 12 RBI), and—surprisingly—Jurickson Profar (.321/.419/.528 in 62 plate appearances), but Machado has been disappointing (103 OPS+) and the starting rotation has been hit or miss, with the exception of Cease, who has been excellent in three starts.

For their part, Milwaukee will look to keep their offense humming, as it seems as though it hasn’t really mattered who Pat Murphy pens into the lineup, they’ve (almost) all been hitting. We will await word on Christian Yelich, to see whether he is able to play in this series (I would expect an IL stint if he can’t), and we’ll keep an eye on whether the Brewers stick with a six-man rotation, as they have a “TBD” penciled in on Wednesday that could be Freddy Peralta, could be Aaron Ashby, or could be someone else.

Probable Pitching Matchups:

Monday, April 15 @ 6:40 p.m.: TBD (probably Joe Musgrove, 1-2) vs. Joe Ross (1-0)

Musgrove has one really good start this year, two mediocre ones, and one bad one, though that was back on March 21^st in Seoul, when he gave up five earned runs in 2 2/3 innings. He has not seemingly settled in yet, as his peripherals aren’t up to where they typically are, and he leads the league with five hit batters. He’s a good pitcher, though, and just 31 years old, so I’d expect that he’ll turn it around at some point.

For the Brewers, Joe Ross, who has a 1.80 ERA through ten innings, will look to continue is early-season success. Is he this year’s version of Julio Teheran, who was outstanding through six starts with the team last year but faded quickly after that, or has Ross really found something?

Tuesday, April 16 @ 6:40 p.m.: TBD (probably Dylan Cease) vs. Wade Miley (0-0)

Cease has been one of the NL’s best pitchers in the early going: in three starts, he’s allowed four earned runs and struck out 20 in 16.2 innings. He’s traditionally a high strikeout, high walk pitcher – his K/9 and BB/9 were nearly the same in 2022 (when he was second in Cy Young voting, had a 180 ERA+, and 6.4 bWAR) and 2023 (when he had a 97 ERA+ and 2.4 bWAR).

The Brewers will counter with Wade Miley, who threw 52 pitches in four efficient, one-run innings on Wednesday. He will probably have a slightly longer leash, but expect Miley to remain on a pitch count for at least a couple more starts.

Wednesday, April 17 @ 12:10 p.m.: TBD (probably Michael King) vs. TBD (Freddy Peralta? Aaron Ashby?)

King was one of the big prizes that the Padres got when they traded Soto to the Yankees. King, who turns 29 in May, has primarily been a reliever in his career, but he’s been a good one for three years, and he started nine games last season and finished the year with a 158 ERA+ in 104.2 innings. He’s not off to a wonderful start; he’s 2-0, but he’s also allowed six homers (which leads baseball) and has an ERA of 4.19 in 19 1/3 innings.

Who the Brewers counter with is yet to be determined. Freddy Peralta could start—it would be regular rest for him in a five-man rotation. But the Brewers used Aaron Ashby in this spot last week, and he could conceivably be recalled to start again, or the team could opt for an “opener” situation.

Prediction

The Brewers have been hot to start the season, and while they haven’t been bad, the Padres haven’t really clicked yet. I think Milwaukee will keep it going, get Yelich back, and take two out of three, with Cease out-dueling Miley on Wednesday.