XBB.1.5 COVID subvariant still only on the horizon as Oregon cases and hospitalizations continue to fall

Oregon well being officers reported a 16% drop in newly recognized coronavirus circumstances this week and an 9% drop in COVID-19 hospitalizations, pointing to an obvious lull earlier than the extremely transmissible XBB.1.5 subvariant spreads into Oregon.

Slightly below 240 hospital beds had been occupied with individuals who had examined optimistic for the coronavirus Wednesday, down greater than 100 beds since the latest peak, in late December, and almost 4 occasions lower than the hospitalizations on this date final 12 months. An anticipated bump in occupied beds pushed by the XBB omicron subvariant may drive hospitalizations as much as 367 occupied beds, state officers stated final week, citing Oregon Well being & Science College forecasts.

“Whereas this variant does seem like essentially the most transmissible COVID-19 variants thus far, at the moment, there is no such thing as a proof that it’s related to extra extreme COVID-19 an infection,” state epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidelinger stated at a month-to-month coronavirus briefing Jan. 12. “On the whole, we’re not seeing a major trigger for concern about XBB.1.5 proper now.”

State sequencing information has not recognized any XBB.1.5 infections since a handful had been discovered in mid-December, although that information is delayed a number of weeks and, as of the latest batch, included solely 9 samples. However federal modeling signifies the subvariant accounted for less than about 8% of all circumstances throughout Oregon, Washington and Idaho throughout the week ending Jan. 14, in comparison with greater than 80% in components of the East Coast.

Whereas reported case counts may very well be unreliable indicators as a result of they don’t seize at-home checks, different Oregon Well being Authority information level to an easing of the stress from the present surge. Check positivity amongst identified circumstances is averaging under 10%, and the share of emergency room visits for COVID-like signs has fallen from about 5% a month in the past to 1.8% Tuesday.

Whereas a number of wastewater testing websites in Oregon level to a “sustained improve” of the virus of their communities, these information are in all circumstances not less than two weeks previous. As soon as touted as a possible early warning system that may function a extra dependable measure of the pandemic than reported case counts, wastewater monitoring information takes so lengthy to course of that it may be weeks earlier than it’s obtainable to the general public, Sidelinger stated.

“There’s not that information that we sit on and wait to put up,” he stated, explaining why information on OHA’s wastewater monitoring dashboard is weeks previous. “It’s fairly a prolonged course of, and a few websites may be extra delayed than others.”

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Because it started: Oregon has reported 946,727 confirmed or presumed infections and 9,141 deaths.

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Hospitalizations: 239 individuals with confirmed coronavirus infections are hospitalized, down 22 since Jan. 11. That features 33 individuals in intensive care, down three since Jan. 11.

New deaths: Since Jan. 11, the Oregon Well being Authority has reported 63 extra deaths linked to COVID-19.

— Fedor Zarkhin

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