Recruiting mailbag: Texas, Oregon or Miami? Which program has a brighter future on the trail?

Welcome back to another recruiting mailbag and thank you as always for your questions. It’s hard to believe it’s almost October, but college football season always goes by too quickly. In just two-plus months, the early signing period will be upon us.

Let’s dive in.

Editor’s note: All rankings are from the 247Sports Composite. Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity. 

Of the three major returnees to the realm of national title contention (I’m projecting a bit for the third team but Cam Ward looks realllllly good), which one of Texas, Oregon, and Miami looks like it has the highest chance of joining the top tier of recruiting with Bama, Georgia, and Ohio State? All three programs have had excellent recruiting classes lately and have established, elite recruiting head coaches, but haven’t hit that consistent top-five-class group. They all seem somewhat equal to me, with Oregon having the Lanning+Phil Knight advantage, Texas being well, Texas, and Miami being the only nationally relevant team in all of Florida. Curious on your thoughts. Thanks! — Sam W.

What a fun question to start us off. I could make an argument for all three teams, just as you did. Lanning is a Kirby Smart-Nick Saban protege with Phil Knight’s backing. Sarkisian also learned from Saban and works for one of the biggest brands in sports. And Miami has hit its stride under Mario Cristobal with two straight top-seven classes.

But I’m going with the Longhorns. Of these three schools, Texas is the only one that has a strong conference affiliation and an elite talent pool in its backyard. Oregon has the conference portion down as a member of the Big Ten, and Miami has the in-state talent. But the Hurricanes are stuck in the ACC, and the state of Oregon doesn’t have a single blue-chip prospect in the Class of 2025.

Texas, meanwhile, is also doing its part on the field, which makes the Longhorns even more attractive to top prospects. Quinn Ewers took Texas to its first College Football Playoff a season ago and should have the Horns back again in 2024. And what recruit doesn’t want to play alongside Arch Manning? Texas has all the pieces it needs to join that top tier — if it hasn’t already. The Horns signed consecutive top-five classes in 2022 and 2023 and just missed in the 2024 cycle (No. 6).

How much damage are the Irish doing to their recruitment of wide receivers with the current struggles of their passing game? Who’s going to want to play in that kind of offense? — Andrew R. 

Well, Notre Dame certainly isn’t doing itself any favors.

The Fighting Irish currently rank No. 108 nationally in passing offense with just 173.8 yards per game. They’ve passed for 200-plus yards once all season (against Purdue) and have scored just three touchdowns through the air in four games.

There is some belief at Notre Dame that there are a few potential difference-makers at wide receiver in the current freshman class, but the 2025 class is lacking. The Irish have two commits at the position — Elijah Burress and Jerome Bettis Jr. — and both rank outside of the top 600 nationally.

The Irish must find some consistency at quarterback if they want to convince wide receivers that South Bend is a destination spot for them. In each of the past two years, coach Marcus Freeman has signed a transfer quarterback from the ACC, first rolling with Sam Hartman from Wake Forest and now Riley Leonard from Duke. Current freshman CJ Carr, a top-75 prospect from the 2024 class, could be the quarterback of the future, but he is obviously unproven. Sophomore Kenny Minchey, a top-200 recruit in the 2023 class, has thrown three passes in his career.

Then there’s the Class of 2025 drama. Can you blame top receivers for not being sure about Notre Dame when five-star quarterback commit Deuce Knight continues to flirt with Auburn? It feels as though the Irish need a reset with their entire offense before top recruits get on board.

Considering more education generally leads to higher pay and more professional opportunities, and NIL agreements can provide significant early compensation to students even if the player does not make it to the NFL, how does NIL affect academic schools’ recruiting? — Flavio T. 

I assume you are talking about the “academic” schools that play FBS football. Ivy League schools have a ton of money, but that money is largely part of the school’s endowment, which is separate from an athletic department’s funds or third-party collective.

The explosion of NIL in recent years definitely has not helped schools such as Duke, Stanford, Vanderbilt and Northwestern. While all of these schools have a collective, they don’t have the same type of funds available as the programs they are competing against. With the exception of Stanford (at times), these programs have always had trouble recruiting top-40 classes. So being at a disadvantage in terms of talent acquisition is nothing new. They will do what they can on the NIL front — and some will be more aggressive than others — but these programs will continue to target the types of prospects who are attracted to high-end academics and the overall culture of a school.

Grace, is the current state of NIL recruiting that most top-100 high school seniors are already getting money from the school/collective that they are committed to? Is the expectation for the elite players these days not only to get a guaranteed contract offer but also to start receiving money immediately? — Erik W. 

My sense is that most top recruits aren’t getting NIL money directly from collectives. Yes, that money will eventually come once they are enrolled at their schools and have their contracts set up, but most of the NIL compensation for high school players comes via “true NIL deals” through local businesses or organizations. In some states, it has to. Most state regulations allow high schoolers to earn NIL, but some, such as Florida and Georgia, have specific language that explicitly prohibits it from coming via collectives.

In Texas, high schoolers have to be 18 to earn NIL. Missouri is unique because high schoolers can receive NIL benefits as long as they sign a letter of intent to attend a public university in the state. And in North Carolina, NIL is permitted only for athletes who attend private high schools, which is why the family of 2026 five-star quarterback Faizon Brandon is currently suing the state after he was approached for a deal by a trading card company.

But since it’s such a murky topic with so many unknowns, I took your question to a couple of general managers at Power 4 collectives. They were granted anonymity so they could speak candidly. One acknowledged that the NIL world is fluid but said that his school has never paid a committed prospect NIL money from the collective before the prospect enrolled. This person wasn’t aware of other schools doing it, either. In addition to having to navigate NCAA rules (don’t laugh!) and the legal aspect of the ever-changing NIL space, it’s simply too risky to shell out cash to a recruit who is “not legally obligated to show up and play football for us,” he said. “It would be a horrible business practice. I have not run into that from a competitor, and we would never do that.”

The second GM believes that some schools do hand out NIL benefits to prospects before they enroll but said he “would be stunned if it’s double-digit programs.”

(Photo of Steve Sarkisian and Texas: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)