Outlining No. 1 Oregon’s path to a College Football Playoff championship

The No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff hardly comes with the easiest road to a championship.

Oregon learned its fate Sunday after the Ducks were awarded the No. 1 seed. Oregon’s potential path to winning the CFP title in Atlanta on January 20 could require wins over Ohio State, Texas and Georgia. Those are among the bluest of college football blue bloods.

To put it into context, Oregon (13-0) may need wins over teams that were among AP Top 25′s preseason top four – Georgia No. 1, Ohio State No. 2 and Texas No. 4. Oregon was No. 3.

The biggest perk as the No. 1 seed is a first-round bye. The Ducks know they’ll open the CFP in the quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl on January 1, facing the first-round winner of Ohio State-Tennessee.

Should Oregon survive, it’ll advance to the Cotton Bowl on Friday, Jan. 10. The Ducks’ CFP semifinal opponent is the Peach Bowl winner, where Arizona State faces a first-round winner between Texas-Clemson in the semifinals.

The championship game, Monday, Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, could see the Ducks facing No. 2 Georgia or No. 3 Boise State.

Let’s look at each step:

QUARTERFINALS (Rose Bowl): The Ducks know they’re headed to Pasadena. They could face a familiar opponent in Ohio State (10-2), or in Tennessee (10-2), a team Oregon hasn’t played since 2013.

Oregon defeated Ohio State 32-31 on October 12 in Eugene, a back-and-forth game that the Ducks pulled out on an Atticus Sappington 19-yard field goal with 1:47 remaining.

The Ducks and Buckeyes have played 11 times, with Ohio State leading the series 9-2. However, Oregon has won the last two meetings. This would be the third Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes won both, 26-17 in 2010, and 10-7 in 1958.

Ohio State appeared on a collision to play Oregon in the Big Ten championship game before it was upset by rival Michigan 13-10 in the regular season finale.

It’s far from a sure thing the Rose Bowl will have one of its traditional matchups. Tennessee was a tough out in the SEC this season. The Volunteers’ best wins came over Alabama and Oklahoma, with losses to Georgia and Arkansas.

Oregon is undefeated in the Tennessee series, having won by blowout margins in 2010 and 2013 games.

SEMIFINALS (Cotton Bowl): One of three teams await Oregon should it advance from the Rose Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State (11-2), No. 5 Texas (11-2) or No. 12 Clemson (10-3) at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Tex.

At first blush, the worst matchup is Texas, as the Cotton Bowl means a Longhorns-heavy crowd. Texas’ only two losses this season came to No. 2 Georgia. The Longhorns were dominant at times during their 2024 campaign, including six double-digit wins against SEC competition.

Oregon and Texas have played six times, with the Longhorns leading the series 4-2. The last time they played was the 2013 Alamo Bowl, where the Ducks won 30-7.

Oregon will play a former Pac-12 foe should Arizona State win the Peach Bowl. The Ducks lead the 39-game series 21-18, having split the past four games. The last time Oregon and ASU played was 2023, when the Ducks hammered the Sun Devils 49-13 in Eugene. They’ve never played each other in a bowl game.

Arizona State has been a fan favorite in 2024. Just 3-9 in 2023, second-year coach Kenny Dillingham – a former Ducks offensive coordinator – led a remarkable rebuild as the Sun Devils won the Big 12 championship this season.

Arizona State, led by West Linn High grad Sam Leavitt at quarterback, won its final six games to claim a CFP berth. The Sun Devils had one of the most impressive conference championship game performances, burying Iowa State 45-19.

Clemson, the 12 seed, is the third Cotton Bowl option for Oregon. The Ducks and Tigers have never played. Clemson have the least impressive resume of the three possible semifinal opponents, its best win coming over SMU in the ACC championship game. Among the Tigers’ three losses was a 34-3 defeat to Georgia in the season opener.

CFP CHAMPIONSHIP (Atlanta): If Oregon gets this far, the most likely foe is Georgia (11-2). The No. 2 Bulldogs drew a decidedly easier route to the January 20 championship game than Oregon, as its side of the bracket includes No. 3 Boise State, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 10 Indiana and No. 11 SMU.

Oregon has played two of the six championship game possibilities this season in Penn State (won 45-37 in Big Ten championship game) and Boise State (won 37-34 in Eugene).

With so many potential championship-game opponents, let’s focus on a No. 1 vs. 2 matchup. It won’t be lost on anyone that the last time Oregon and Georgia played, it was Dan Lanning’s 2022 UO debut, where the Bulldogs won 49-3 in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Said Georgia coach Kirby Smart of Lanning, his former defensive coordinator: “He’s going to do a really good job at Oregon. He’s relentless, and they’ll bounce back from this. He knows that we’ve got better players. He’ll never says it, but he knows we’ve got better plays, and I respect how he works.”

Georgia has an impressive resume, with two wins over Texas, and a 31-17 win over Tennessee. The Bulldogs’ losses were 41-34 to Alabama, and 28-10 to Mississipppi.

Of the remaining possibilities, Boise State is most appealing. The Broncos’ only loss this season came to the Ducks, an incredibly competitive game where Oregon had to score the game’s final 10 points to win 37-34. The Broncos have running back Ashton Jeanty, who is battling Colorado’s Travis Hunter for the Heisman Trophy as college football’s most outstanding player.

–Nick Daschel can be reached at 360-607-4824, ndaschel@oregonian.com or @nickdaschel.

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