Oregon’s snowpack is historically poor. That could change in a big way

Weather forecasters are increasingly optimistic that Oregon’s historically low snowpack could start to see a big turnaround beginning in about a week.

State climatologist Larry O’Neill said forecast models are showing a “pattern shift” from warm and dry weather to wet and cool conditions beginning around Feb. 7-8.

This week is forecast to remain far warmer than normal, with temperatures into the 60s. By the weekend, a system arrives with the potential to bring a lot of mountain snow in a season that has been historically bad thus far.   

“It’s still a ways out, but this pattern looks really good and there is a lot of agreement in the forecast models for a setup that historically brings a lot of snow,” O’Neill said.

It’s needed.

Oregon’s mountains have never had this little snow, statewide, as of Feb. 2 in recorded history. In the Cascade Mountains specifically, the snowpack is only slightly better than 2015.

Statewide, snowpack is 30% of normal.

What’s in the forecast for Oregon?

Currently, there is a high pressure ridge across the West Coast that has deflected storms from the Pacific Ocean and kept the weather dry and, this week, very warm.

Forecast models show that ridge breaking down beginning this weekend and opening a “trough” that should allow storms back into Oregon. Often, this sort of trough, when it comes with northwest flow, brings both wet and cool conditions ripe for mountain snow.

Indeed, some of the forecast models are predicting as much as 44-72 inches in the Cascade Mountains by Feb. 18.

O’Neill said that level of snow might not happen, “but it gives you a sense of what’s possible with the system that is coming in,” he said.

Snow badly needed at Oregon ski areas

Mountain snow is badly needed for winter recreation and building up a snowpack that can slow the onset of wildfire season and provide drinking water statewide.

Some of Oregon’s smaller and lower elevation ski areas have announced suspended or scaled back operations.

“Everybody is hoping for snow,” O’Neill said. “And we don’t know the specifics of what we’re going to get — but at this point, this one actually looks pretty good.”

Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 18 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on X at @ZachsORoutdoors and BlueSky at oregonoutdoors.bsky.social