Oregon’s respiratory virus season predicted to remain mild compared to the past two years

Oregon’s 2023 to 2024 respiratory virus season has yielded less hospitalizations than the past two years and is predicted to remain relatively mild, according to Dr. Peter Graven, director of Oregon Health and Science University’s office of advanced analytics.

Since November, hospitalizations due to COVID-19, RSV and flu have been lower than he anticipated, and Oregon has had less cases and hospitalizations than most other states, Graven said.

Though hospitalizations are down from recent years, the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention has said the numbers nationally remain higher than in the 2017 to 2018 season before the spread of COVID-19.

The respiratory illness season, which typically begins in November and runs through March, is marked by increased spread of respiratory viruses and hospitalizations due to illnesses such as COVID-19, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and influenza.

Graven has been putting out regular forecasts since March 2020 detailing past data and predicting respiratory virus cases and hospitalizations for the next month.

By predicting hospitalization rates, he can help medical facilities understand the potential risk for capacity challenges and give Oregonians an idea of what the likelihood of contracting a respiratory illness is.

While the respiratory illness season in Oregon has been mild so far this winter, Graven cautioned people to continue taking necessary steps to protect themselves and others, like staying up to date on vaccines, especially those who are at higher risk of developing serious complications.

“Cautiously, I’d say things look good, but that doesn’t mean it’s over yet,” said Graven.

COVID-19 less widespread in Oregon than in other states

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Oregon started increasing in mid-November 2023 and have continued to slightly increase since then, according to CDC data.

A peak occurred on Dec. 2, with 226 new COVID-19 hospitalizations. The majority of those hospitalized then were infected with the newest COVID-19 strain, JN.1.

JN.1 accounted for about 44% of all cases nationwide as of Dec. 23, according to the CDC. JN.1 appears to be more contagious than other recent strains but is not causing more serious illness.

COVID-19 hospitalizations and test positivity are much lower in Oregon than in most other states, but there is no clear explanation why, said Graven.

RSV hospitalizations in Oregon likely to stay lower than last year

RSV hospitalizations have increased in the past month but are not close to the record levels seen last year, CDC data shows.

In the week of Dec. 23, the rate of RSV hospitalizations in Oregon was 1.2 per 100,000 people, which is lower than the national average of 1.8.

Some states are having equivalent waves like last year, said Graven, but he does not expect RSV rates in Oregon to reach the point they were at last year when they peaked at 4.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 people.

The flu season has been mild so far in Oregon

Flu hospitalizations in Oregon also have increased in the past month, but hospitalization rates are relatively mild, said Graven.

There were less than 100 new flu hospital admissions in Oregon as of Dec. 27, though CDC forecasts predicts these numbers to increase throughout January.

Sydney Wyatt covers healthcare inequities in the Mid-Willamette Valley for the Statesman Journal. Send comments, questions, and tips to her at SWyatt@gannett.com, (503) 399-6613, or on Twitter @sydney_elise44

The Statesman Journal’s coverage of healthcare inequities is funded in part by the M.J. Murdock Charitable Trust, which seeks to strengthen the cultural, social, educational, and spiritual base of the Pacific Northwest through capacity-building investments in the nonprofit sector.