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Oregon vs. Iowa score prediction by expert football model

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Oregon vs. Iowa score prediction by expert football model


A major Big Ten matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 9 Oregon goes across the country in a test against newly-ranked No. 20 Iowa in Week 11 college football action on Saturday.

Iowa broke into the first College Football Playoff rankings on the back of a strong defense and a 4-1 record in Big Ten play, while Oregon is at one loss and with little room for error in this road test.

What do the analytics predict as the Ducks visit the Hawkeyes this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and Iowa compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

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The model likes the Ducks to stand firm in this road test against the Hawkeyes.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Iowa by a projected score of 28 to 20 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.5 points.

The model gives the Ducks a 68 percent chance of outright victory over the Hawkeyes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

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The betting markets are siding with the Ducks over the Hawkeyes, but not by as much as a touchdown.

Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the game lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -240 and for Iowa at +198 to win outright.

Oregon arrives with elite offensive balance and a defense that’s allowed less than 15 points per game, and they need this one to stay on a playoff trajectory.

Iowa brings a stout defense and home-field edge at Kinnick Stadium, aiming to capitalize on the Ducks’ road trip vulnerability.

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Expect Oregon to edge the Hawkeyes, but Iowa could stay close if they dominate time of possession early.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Where Oregon Ducks rank in industry recruiting rankings for 2027 class

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Where Oregon Ducks rank in industry recruiting rankings for 2027 class


With the winter evaluation period of high school football recruiting now behind us, we’ve seen some of the top recruiting sites update their rankings over the past few weeks and start to reset their boards for the 2027 class. In February, On3 shifted players around after getting fresh looks at the class, and 247Sports did the same earlier this week.

So with Oregon’s handful of commits getting new ratings, where does the Ducks’ class rank nationally in this cycle?

If you look at sites individually, it looks different, with 247Sports having Oregon sitting at No. 13 in the nation. At Rivals, though, they take the industry ranking, which factors in their own rankings, plus an average from 247Sports and ESPN.

In the industry rankings, Oregon sits at No. 9 in the nation, with five commitments.

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Going into the summer months, the Ducks are in a great spot, leading or among the top schools for a handful of the top prospects in the nation, like 5-star QB Will Mencl or 5-star WR Dakota Guerrant. We will see what movement Oregon can make in the coming months after official visits take place early in the summer.

Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions. 



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New Data Shows Oregon E-Scooter Injuries on the Rise

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New Data Shows Oregon E-Scooter Injuries on the Rise


Data released by the Oregon Health Authority this week suggests Oregonians are getting hurt on electric scooters more every year.

In recent years, according to OHA, an “e-scooter-specific code” was developed for health care tracking purposes.

From 2021 to 2024, annual injury reports under this code from Oregon hospitals and emergency departments jumped from 211 to 418.

And in just the first nine months of 2025, there had been 509 such reports.

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“These injuries are not minor scrapes,” said Dagan Wright, an OHA epidemiologist, in a written statement. “They often involve head injuries, broken bones, and other serious trauma that requires emergency or inpatient care.”

The city of Portland signed contracts with three e-scooter rental companies in 2018, as the transportation craze spread across the country. But e-scooter injury diagnosis codes are relatively new in health care reporting, Wright said in the OHA statement.

“While the overall numbers remain smaller than for other transportation-related injuries, the rapid increase over a short period of time is a clear safety signal,” OHA added.

The agency highlighted the story of Portland e-scooter commuter Daniel Pflieger, who it says was riding a scooter home when he reportedly slid on ice. He bruised several ribs.

Sometimes outcomes are worse. OHA identified 17 deaths linked to electric or motorized scooters since 2018, and seven of those occurred in 2025.

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OHA says that e-bikes raise many similar safety concerns as e-scooters. The first full year for which e-bike injuries were coded for reporting was 2023. State data shows 392 reported e-bike injuries that year, 683 in 2024, and 760 in the first nine months of 2025.

“Injuries involving e-bikes and e-scooters share common risk factors—speed, lack of helmet use, roadway design, and interactions with motor vehicles,” Wright said.

Oregon E-Scooter Injuries on the Rise (Source: Oregon Health Authority)

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Oregon women’s basketball playing for March Madness seeding vs. Purdue

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Oregon women’s basketball playing for March Madness seeding vs. Purdue


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At times, the Oregon women’s basketball team has certainly made things much harder on themselves than it needs to be. The team has also produced some miraculous comeback victories, putting itself in position to make women’s March Madness for the second straight season.

March 1, in their final regular season game, the Ducks (20-11, 8-10 Big Ten) finished on the wrong end of yet another tight game to Washington, 70-69. It’s the second time this season Oregon has come back from a double-digit deficit, but ended up losing to the Huskies (20-9, 10-8).

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Those aren’t the only times Oregon has come back from a double-digit deficit, like it did in wins vs. Nebraska and USC. The No. 11-seed Ducks are hoping they won’t need heroics in a Big Ten tournament first-round game against No. 14 Purdue this Wednesday.

Watch Oregon basketball on Peacock

“I think our biggest weakness this year has been our inconsistency,” coach Kelly Graves said, “something we’ve battled all year. The great thing is our kids know, regardless of the score, we’ve got a chance. We’ll make it a game at some point. As a coach, it drives you nuts. Hopefully we can figure it out and play more consistent basketball.”

Oregon’s volatility has seen it earn three double-digit comeback wins this year, but also blow several games in the final moments.

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Against Wisconsin, the Ducks held a 6-point lead with less than a minute remaining, but lost in overtime. Against Illinois, Oregon held a 21-point lead at halftime, blew it in the third quarter, trailed by eight with minutes to play and somehow eked out a win.

That makes UO somewhat of a wild card heading into the conference tournament this week at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

“It’s definitely (been) a rollercoaster,” guard Katie Fiso said. “A lot of highs and a lot of lows. But one thing that I try to see through all games is our grittiness and our toughness. One thing that stays consistent throughout the season is our toughness and our grittiness. The game isn’t over until the last bell rings.”

The Ducks will be taking on a Boilermakers (13-16, 5-13) team that has struggled against most of the top competition in the league, but played Oregon tight in a Feb. 25 Ducks win.

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Graves said when the Ducks went throughout the postgame handshake line after, the Boilermakers felt like their season would end after the regular season. Thanks to some upsets, Purdue is in the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 14 seed.

“We’re playing a team that probably feels like it’s playing with house money,” Graves said. “We’ve got to pick ourselves back up and get it done.”

What channel is Oregon vs. Purdue on today in Big Ten tournament?

Oregon will tip off vs. Purdue on Peacock, with no TV option to watch the game.

Oregon vs. Purdue start time in Big Ten tournament

  • Date: Wednesday, March 4
  • Time: Around 5:30 p.m. PT

Oregon and Purdue will play around 5:30 p.m. PT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The first game of the day begins at 12:30 p.m. PT, with the next game 25 minutes after the first game ends, and so on. The Ducks play in the third game of the day, so no official tip time is listed.

Oregon women’s basketball schedule 2025-26

Below are the past five games of Oregon’s 2025-26 basketball season. For the full schedule, click here.

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Feb. 15 Washington 51, Oregon 43
Feb. 19 Oregon 80, Nebraska 76
Feb. 22 Indiana 72, Oregon 65
Feb. 25 Oregon 71, Purdue 65
March 1 Washington 70, Oregon 69
March 4 Oregon vs. Purdue (Big Ten tournament)

Purdue women’s basketball schedule 2025-26

Below are the past five games of Purdue’s 2025-26 basketball season. For the full schedule, click here.

Feb. 14 Purdue 72, Rutgers 57
Feb. 19 Iowa 83, Purdue 74
Feb. 22 Maryland 99, Purdue 66
Feb. 25 Oregon 71, Purdue 65
March 1 Purdue 67, Northwestern 62
March 4 Oregon vs. Purdue (Big Ten tournament)

Alec Dietz covers University of Oregon football and women’s basketball for The Register-Guard. You may reach him at adietz@registerguard.com.



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