Oregon seniors outnumber children for the first time, creating a looming demographic challenge

Oregon has more residents over 65 than it does people under 18, a striking demographic reversal that has enormous implications for the state’s economy.

“We are an aging population,” state economist Carl Riccadonna told Oregon legislators at a committee hearing earlier this month, where he presented figures showing the state’s population has been racking up the years.

As recently as 1985, Oregon had more than twice as many children as seniors. But the state’s birth rate has fallen sharply — it’s among the nation’s lowest — and most baby boomers are now in retirement age.

The result is that the number of older adults has overtaken the number of kids. The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis estimates the state has nearly 900,000 people over 65, compared to 832,000 under 18 in 2024 and an estimated 821,000 now.

State economists expect that the number of seniors will continue rising while the number of children continues falling. By 2035, they forecast Oregon will have 40% more seniors than kids.

“Based solely on the demographics of Oregon, demand for public services geared towards children and young adults will likely decline or increase only at a slower pace, whereas demand for elderly care and services geared towards the elderly will increase rapidly,” state forecasters wrote in their quarterly economic report.

Fewer kids will eventually mean fewer workers, too, unless Oregon can become a more attractive destination for migrants.

Oregon’s aging population mirrors similar trends across the U.S. and in other developed countries. But those trends are especially pronounced in Oregon.

Just 1 in 5 Oregonians is under 18, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s the smallest share of children in any state west of the Mississippi River. The number of school-aged Oregon children has been falling since 2021.

Many factors contribute to Oregon’s relatively aged population.

Migrants who arrived in the 1970s and ‘90s have stayed and grown older. Housing costs are higher than in other parts of the country and so fewer people have families. Oregon’s education rates are high and college-educated people tend to have fewer kids. Oregon also has a less diverse population than other West Coast states, and white people tend to have smaller families.

Regardless of the reasons, the significance of Oregon’s aging population is clear.

“Demographics are destiny,” Riccadonna told lawmakers. “And if you have a slower growth rate in your population, that means you’re going to have a slower growth rate in your economy, all else being equal.”

This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian‘s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.

— Mike Rogoway covers Oregon technology and the state economy. Reach him at mrogoway@oregonian.com.

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