College football Week 12 odds, picks against the spread: Tennessee-Georgia, Oregon-Wisconsin and more

We are entering the stretch run of the 2024 college football season, and now that we are getting weekly playoff rankings, every game will become even more important.

This week’s biggest game on the schedule is in Athens, Ga., where No. 12 Georgia hosts No. 7 Tennessee. The Bulldogs were the first team out in this week’s rankings, and a third loss might be a dagger for their playoff chances. But a win over a top-10 team would almost certainly push them back in.

The only other game between teams in the top 25 of the College Football Playoff Rankings is in South Carolina, where the No. 21 Gamecocks host No. 23 Missouri.

The top four teams in the rankings are all playing games where they are double-digit favorites, including No. 2 Ohio State (against Northwestern at Wrigley Field) and No. 4 Penn State (at Purdue). Both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions are favored by four touchdowns. No. 1 Oregon (at Wisconsin) and No. 3 Texas (at Arkansas) are both two-touchdown favorites.

There is a sneaky big ACC game in Pittsburgh. Pitt is trying to snap a two-game losing streak and keep its conference title hopes alive when it hosts No. 20 Clemson. Even with a win on Saturday, both teams would need help from SMU or Miami to reach the ACC title game.

No. 17 Colorado controls its path to a Big 12 championship (and, by extension, a playoff appearance) and is a big favorite against Utah.

There is another massive game in the AAC where Navy can play its way back into a top-two spot in the conference if it can beat No. 25 Tulane. A Navy win would put a potential Army-Navy conference championship game back on the table.

—Adam Gretz

All games listed are on Saturday. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the College Football Playoff Rankings. All odds are from BetMGM.

No. 3 Texas at Arkansas

Noon on ESPN

The SEC race is a jumbled mess, but Texas is in the upper portion of that group with one loss in conference play. The Longhorns, favored by about two touchdowns, hope to stay a game ahead of the chasing pack at Arkansas on Saturday.

As it stands, the Texas-Texas A&M game at the end of the regular season could decide which team goes to the SEC title game, but first, Texas must clear another rivalry reborn this weekend. Texas and Arkansas were both in the old Southwest Conference until Arkansas bolted for the SEC in 1992. Texas moved to the Big 12 in 1996, back when the number of teams in a conference actually dictated the conference’s name.

The recent series history between these two is symbolic of why “Texas is back” became a running joke. Arkansas has won four of the six meetings since the Southwest Conference days, including both bowl games between the two. That’s a good reminder that Texas was not back for a lot of years this century.

The Razorbacks haven’t always been an easy out for top teams this season. While LSU (34-1) and Ole Miss (63-31) decimated the Razorbacks, Arkansas shocked Tennessee 19-14 and held a fourth-quarter lead against Texas A&M before falling 21-17.

Arkansas is coming off a bye, while Texas is coming off what might have felt like a scrimmage. The Longhorns left no doubt in a 49-17 win against a Florida team that was on its third-string quarterback. Texas led 42-0 midway through the third quarter before calling the dogs off.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

Utah at No. 17 Colorado

Noon on ESPN

Everything is aligned for No. 17 Colorado to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, starting with the game against Utah on Saturday. The Buffaloes are not only a double-digit favorite, but this is the first time they have been favored against Utah since 2016, the last time they beat the Utes.

If Colorado simply handles its business the rest of the way and beats three teams, Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State (with a combined record of 10-18), the Buffaloes will have a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game and a chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff, completing an incredible turnaround from last year’s four-win season.

The Utes are the first team up in that stretch, and the Big 12 Championship comes down the road.

Utah enters the game having lost five in a row and dealing with major problems on offense. The Utes are on their third quarterback of the season after starter Cameron Rising and replacement Brandon Rose have both been lost for the season. Utah has scored more than 23 points in a game just three times and is averaging 15.5 points per game in Big 12 play.

Utah will need more offense than that on Saturday to keep pace with a Colorado team averaging 32.4 points per game. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders is the focal point of the Buffaloes’ offense, completing more than 72 percent of his passes with 24 touchdown passes to six interceptions.

Two-way star Travis Hunter is also continuing his Heisman Trophy campaign by playing over 100 snaps per game and leading the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns while also being tied for the team lead in interceptions.

—Adam Gretz

Picks against the spread

No. 20 Clemson at Pitt

Noon on ESPN

Clemson at Pitt looked like a marquee game on the ACC schedule just a couple of weeks ago. Since then, Clemson got manhandled by Louisville at home, and the Panthers have dropped two straight. Still, both teams are in the ACC title race but need some help. Clemson is favored by two scores on the road.

This is Clemson’s ACC regular-season finale. The Tigers are 6-1 in ACC play, with a game against The Citadel preceding the in-state rivalry game against South Carolina. A win at Pitt leaves Clemson at 7-1 but in need of help from SMU and Miami to advance to the ACC title game.

Pitt is only 3-2 in the league and still has a trip to Louisville ahead, so the Panthers’ path to the title game is less likely and fraught with danger. On top of that, quarterback Eli Holstein left last week’s loss to Virginia due to injury. He got hit while sliding in the third quarter and did not return. It’s not yet clear if Holstein will play. Junior Nate Yarnell was 4-for-12 for 44 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in Holstein’s absence. Virginia outscored the Panthers 17-6 in the second half of a 24-19 win.

Clemson bounced back from its loss to Louisville with a 24-14 win at Virginia Tech, but the Tigers’ offense once again looked uninspiring. The Tigers were scoreless in the first half.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina

4:15 p.m. on SEC Network

After Missouri beat Oklahoma last week, Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz said the win kept his team in the playoff picture. While Mizzou is a two-loss team in the SEC, making that statement technically true, it doesn’t seem likely for this Missouri team to stay a two-loss team by the end of the regular season. A big reason why is this week’s game at South Carolina, where the Gamecocks are favored by nearly two touchdowns.

The big question for Mizzou is the status of quarterback Brady Cook. Cook suffered a sprained ankle against Auburn four weeks ago. He went to the hospital during that game and returned to lead his team to a comeback victory. He then played against Alabama a week later and left with a hand injury that kept him out against OU.

While Cook returning would seem like the glimmer of hope Mizzou would need in this game, putting in an injured quarterback against this South Carolina defense sounds downright terrifying. The Gamecocks are third in the country in sacks with 33 and handily beat a Texas A&M team that destroyed a healthy Missouri earlier this season.

If Cook doesn’t play, the quarterbacks in this matchup are stylistically very different. Drew Pyne, yes, that’s former Notre Dame starter Drew Pyne, started against the Sooners and threw for three touchdowns in a wild game, but he makes Peyton Manning look fast at times. Meanwhile, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers has nearly 400 rushing yards on the season, including 106 yards in a gem against the Aggies.

Sellers is just one dynamic playmaker in this matchup. Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III is a likely first-round pick and South Carolina running back Raheim Sanders is averaging more than five yards per carry and has 11 touchdowns this season.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia

7:30 p.m. on ABC

The biggest game on the Week 12 college football schedule will take place between the hedges on Saturday night when Tennessee and Georgia square off. The Volunteers are ranked higher than the Bulldogs but are sizable underdogs for this critical SEC contest.

If No. 7 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 SEC) defeats No. 12 Georgia (7-2, 5-2) and then Vanderbilt in two weeks, the Vols will be in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game and should also be in good shape to make the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs need to win out to have a shot at playing for a title of any kind.

The big concern for Tennessee is the status of redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He didn’t play in the second half of last week’s win over Mississippi State and was placed in concussion protocol. There’s optimism he’ll be cleared in time, but backup Gaston Moore could get the start.

The Volunteers’ offense has revolved around a rushing attack ranked second among Power 4 teams and averaging 235.1 yards per game. Dylan Sampson (SEC-leading 1,129 yards and 20 touchdowns) has been the workhorse, but Iamaleava’s role in coach Josh Heupel’s system can’t be overlooked. If he doesn’t play, that could be a big advantage for Georgia’s defense. The Bulldogs rank in the top 25 nationally against the run and are limiting conference opponents to 3.6 yards per carry.

The bigger issue for Georgia is that quarterback Carson Beck has thrown seven interceptions compared to two touchdowns in the last three games, and the team managed just 60 rushing yards on 32 attempts in last week’s loss at Ole Miss. It won’t get any easier for Beck and company against a Tennessee defense giving up fewer than 17 points per game to SEC foes.

Beating the Bulldogs is not something the Volunteers have done since 2016. Since then, Georgia has rattled off seven straight victories in this series. The 2016 season, head coach Kirby Smart’s first, was the last time the Bulldogs lost back-to-back games. Georgia has also won 28 in a row at Sanford Stadium.

—Mark Ross

Picks against the spread

No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin

7:30 p.m. on ESPN

No. 1 Oregon is in the “just don’t mess it up” section of its schedule, which consists of three soft games and a bye over the final four weeks. After easily dispatching Maryland, the Ducks head to Wisconsin as two-score favorites for the second game in this run.

The Ducks haven’t allowed an opponent to get within 21 points since they downed Ohio State 32-31 in Week 7 and have smothered teams in the second half of games. The Buckeyes managed just 10 second-half points, and they were the highwater mark. Opponents are averaging 6.2 points in the final two quarters over the last five weeks and Wisconsin, ranked 81st in total offense, isn’t equipped to buck the trend.

The Badgers aren’t in the top 50 in either rushing or passing and, outside of running back Tawee Walker, feature no individual challengers to Oregon’s defensive personnel.

The Ducks, meanwhile, have a Heisman candidate in quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and his favorite receiver, Tez Johnson, is tied for 11th nationally with eight touchdowns and is eighth in receptions (64). Wisconsin’s fifth-ranked pass defense could give them a fight, but Oregon can always turn to Jordan James on the ground. James has 10 touchdowns to go with nearly 1,000 yards and should have no problem chewing through the Badgers’ 91st-ranked run defense. Wisconsin is allowing 164.6 yards per game on the ground, and James is averaging nearly 95, so the Ducks should be just fine if the passing game is slow to get going.

Oregon should head into their bye week with just Washington between them and a perfect regular season. Then, in December, a likely Ohio State rematch awaits.

Just don’t mess it up.

—J.J. Bailey

Picks against the spread

Wild card picks

Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.

Austin Mock: Navy +7 vs. Tulane

Chris Vannini: Tennessee/Georgia under 49.5
Dan Santaromita: LSU -4.5 at Florida

David Ubben: Michigan State +3 at Illinois

Picks records

(Photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)