College Football Playoff projections: Oregon strengthens its hold as several teams tumble

The first College Football Playoff rankings come out on Tuesday, so it is probably appropriate that this weekend’s slate of games throws one last monkey wrench into the mix.

Clemson seemed like it was heading for a battle with Miami for ACC supremacy but faltered. Now, darkhorse SMU is emerging as the biggest threat.

Texas A&M was the last unbeaten in the SEC and it was throttled by South Carolina, so that one is up for grabs, too.

About the only thing that seems to be a sure thing is Boise State as the Group of Five representative.

BYU, Texas and Notre Dame all were off.

Our top four teams haven’t changed: Oregon, Georgia, Miami and BYU. But there is plenty of movement elsewhere. The top four conference champions earn first-round byes. There has to be a Group of 5 school. This is what our 12-team field would look like if the season ended today.

1. Oregon (9-0, 6-0)

The Ducks got an efficient performance from Dillon Gabriel and coasted to a 38-17 win over Michigan in Ann Arbor. Gabriel went 22-for-34 for 294 yards with a touchdown and sprinted home 23 yards for one that gave Oregon an 18-point halftime lead. Jordan James ran for 117 yards and the Ducks never looked back.

Last week: 1. Next: vs. Maryland on Saturday.

2. Georgia (7-1, 5-1)

The Bulldogs had a tougher-than-expected time with rival Florida but ended up with a 34-20 victory. The contest was even at 20 midway through the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs went ahead for good on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Carson Beck to Dominic Lovett with 4:01 to go. Beck threw for 309 yards but was intercepted three times.

Last week: 2. Next: at Mississippi on Saturday.

3. Miami (9-0, 5-0)

The Hurricanes were challenged early but ended up with a 53-31 win over Duke. The Hurricanes trailed 28-17 but rallied. Miami scored the last 21 points of the contest, two of those coming on touchdown passes by Cam Ward who threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns on the day. Ward now has 29 touchdown passes, tying Steve Walsh’s Hurricanes single-season record set in 1988.

Last week: 3. Next: at Georgia Tech on Saturday.

4. BYU (8-0, 5-0)

The Cougars had a week off to brace for their in-state rival, Utah, which has had the better of the battle of late. This appears to be a season BYU can exact some revenge and keep its conference title hopes alive, not to mention further its cause for a playoff berth.

Last week: 4. Next: at Utah on Saturday.

5. Ohio State (7-1, 4-1)

The Buckeyes held Penn State to 270 total yards and got some timely field goals in hanging on for a 20-13 win in a Big Ten battle of title contenders. Ohio State led 14-10 at the half and neither team was able to score a touchdown in the second. The Buckeyes got field goals of 46 and 39 yards from Jayden Fielding to give them some breathing room.

Last week: 8. Next: vs. Purdue on Saturday.

6. Texas (7-1, 3-1)

The Longhorns had a bye and, with Texas A&M losing, remained in the hunt for a berth in the SEC championship game. Texas A&M was the last unbeaten in the conference.,

Last week: 6. Next: vs. Florida on Saturday

7. Tennessee (7-1, 4-1)

The Volunteers chalked up a 28-18 win over Kentucky with Nico Iamaleava throwing for 292 yards. Kentucky led 10-7 at the half, but Tennessee scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to take the lead for good. Tennessee had 478 yards total offense and benefited from three Kentucky turnovers.

Last week: 11 Next: vs. Mississippi State on Saturday.

8. Notre Dame (7-1)

The Fighting Irish had a bye and will be looking to extend their win streak to seven games next weekend. They had that early loss to Northern Illinois but have slowly crept back into the picture, but as an independent are not eligible for a first-round bye.

Last week: 12. Next: vs. Florida State on Saturday.

9. Boise State (7-1, 4-0)

Sophomore quarterback Maddux Madison threw for a career-high 307 yards and four touchdowns and Ashton Jeanty ran for 149 and two touchdowns as the Broncos cruised to a 56-24 win over San Diego State in Mountain West Conference play Friday. It was Jeanty’s eighth straight game of 100 yards or more, breaking the school record set by Jay Ajayi in 2014. Boise State’s lone loss was a 37-34 setback at now-No. 1 Oregon on Sept. 7.

Last week: 9. Next: vs. Nevada on Saturday.

10. Penn State (7-1, 4-1)

The Nittany Lions were upended by Ohio State 20-13, with their hopes of reaching the Big Ten championship dealt a serious blow. A berth in the the 12-team College Football Playoff still looks to be on solid ground. Penn State’s last win over Ohio State came in 2016. Penn State converted only three of 11 third-down tries and managed only 270 yards total offense.

Last week: 5. Next: vs. Washington on Saturday.

11. Clemson (6-2, 5-1)

The Tigers were soundly beaten by Louisville 33-21 and, with Miami and SMU still unbeaten, that is a significant setback for their ACC championship aspirations. It marked the first win over Clemson by Louisville in nine tries. Clemson saw its six-game win streak snapped, with its other loss being in the season opener against Georgia.

Last week: 8. Next: at Virginia Tech on Saturday

12. Indiana (9-0, 6-0)

Are the Hoosiers for real? It remains to be seen. There is no Penn State on the schedule. No Oregon or USC, either, so they have benefited from a light schedule. Indiana beat Michigan State 47-10 but that’s another mediocre foe at best. We’re pumping the brakes on boosting them too high, and the only reason they’re in is the number of losses by teams previously ahead of them in the pecking order.

Last week: Not ranked: Next: vs. Michigan

Dropped out: Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1, lost to South Carolina 44-20)

Bubble watch: Iowa State (7-1, 4-1, lost to Texas Tech 23-22), Kansas State (7-2, 4-2, lost to Houston 24-19), Pittsburgh (7-1, 3-1, lost to SMU 48-25), Alabama (6-2, 3-2, had a bye).

What the bracket would look like:

No. 12 Indiana vs. No. 5 Ohio State

No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 8 Notre Dame

No. 11 Clemson vs. No. 6 Texas

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Tennessee

That would give us quarterfinals

No. 12 Indiana-No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 BYU

No. 9 Boise State-No. 8 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Clemson-No. 6 Texas winner vs. No. 3 Miami

No. 10 Penn State-No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Georgia