What Trump's presidency could mean for New Mexico's climate

As federal policy shifts more to the right with the election of Donald J. Trump, conservationists are increasingly worried how the incoming administration’s vows to cut climate spending and ramp up oil and gas drilling will change New Mexico’s landscape.

It’s no secret that Trump is skeptical of the science behind climate change, famously calling global warming a “hoax” and pledging to “drill baby drill” as the world braces for one of its hottest years in recorded history.

He’s expected to take a vastly different approach to the climate than the Biden administration – vowing to first roll back “unspent” funds in a landmark climate bill dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

A historic piece of legislation, the bill earmarked $370 billion for decarbonization, the clean energy transition, reducing the cost of energy, and remedying environmental health disparities – all investments New Mexico has been taking advantage of since its passage in 2022.

Though conservationists like Camilla Feibelman, the executive director of the Rio Grande Chapter of the Sierra Club, are optimistic these cuts would backfire on Trump.

“You know, people don’t like having their benefits taken away,” Fiebelman said. “Once people have a benefit that helps them in their pocketbook, not to mention the planet, it’s going to be pretty hard to roll those back.”

But, here in New Mexico, Feibelman is more concerned about new methane pollution fees that would force companies to pay up when they release excessive climate-warming methane into the atmosphere.

“Our oil and gas rules at the state level are pretty good, but the federal rules protect us from states like Texas that leave their oil and gas industry pretty unregulated when it comes to air pollution,” Feibelman said.

The fear is that the incoming Republican government trifecta will weaken or entirely eliminate the fees.

Trump’s vague promises have New Mexico’s lawmakers ready to play defense.

In an interview with KUNM, House Speaker Javier Martínez said he expects lawmakers to make a concerted effort to bolster IRA-funded programs that fund the renewable energy sector in the upcoming regular 60-day legislative session.

“We’re not going to let Trump’s wishy-washiness on these things end the opportunity for families in rural New Mexico who depend on the IRA for those jobs,” Rep. Martínez said.

The state is already falling short of its climate goals as it stands. Back in 2019 Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed an Executive Order laying out a desired statewide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 45% by 2030 compared to levels in 2005. An analysis has found New Mexico will achieve less than one-third of that goal.

That, and there is some precedent for Republicans possibly slashing the size of national monuments to allow for more drilling on federally owned land – a well-known priority outlined in the Heritage Foundation’s controversial Project 2025 policy wish list.

If realized, the consequences would disproportionately affect the American West when compared to the rest of the country. About 92% of all federally owned acreage is located in the 12 Western states.

Others are worried about the impacts to endangered species.

“Some of the agencies that Trump is poised to take control of have frankly been very problematic toward endangered species and their conservation responsibilities, no matter which administration has been in place,” said Michael Robinson, an advocate with the Center for Biological Diversity.

Robinson is specifically referring to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which has been widely criticized for its perennially slow process of placing wildlife on the endangered species list.

With the threat of widespread government spending cuts by Trump’s newly formed “Department of Government Efficiency” Robinson said potential cuts to the Service may trickle down and severely affect the management of vulnerable species like the lesser prairie-chicken.

“We have recently gained legal protection for both the lesser prairie-chicken and the dune sagebrush lizard, but the protection is incomplete because they do not yet have critical habitat designated for them,” Robinson said. “That’s likely to be a flashpoint to anticipate where the Trump administration may try and run roughshod over the law.”

While not always the norm, the Service has, at times, deferred species management to states. The most extreme of these cases has been with the recovery of the Mexican gray wolf in New Mexico and Arizona, where each drafts their very own recovery plans.

Robinson said spending cuts would likely give states more influence in decisions over endangered species – a process that has proven to be political in the past.

While the exact details of the Trump administration’s climate policies are still hazy, there’s no doubt significant changes are on the horizon. Come Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson has said the first 100-days of Donald Trump’s term will be “very aggressive.”