New Mexico
UCSB vs. New Mexico Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-6-2023
The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (4-2) will be in Albuquerque on Wednesday to play at The Pit against the New Mexico Lobos (7-1). UC Santa Barbara defeated Northern Arizona 70-59 a week ago this past Monday for its fourth consecutive victory after opening the season with two consecutive losses. New Mexico defeated New Mexico State 106-62 on Saturday for its sixth straight win. UC Santa Barbara does not have any players listed on its injury report. New Mexico’s G Jamal Mashburn Jr is questionable and has missed each of the previous three games.
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UC Santa Barbara is scoring plenty but giving up too many
The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos are scoring an average of 79.7 points per game which is 86th in the nation and have the third best field goal shooting percentage at 53.2 and are 62nd in 3-point shooting at 37.2%. The Gauchos are hitting 73.8% of their free throws. Ajay Mitchell is the leading scorer for UC Santa Barbara with an average of 23.3 points per game and is shooting 63.5% while hitting 50% of his 3-point attempts and sinking 84.6% of his free throws. Yohan Traore is the second leading scorer for UC Santa Barbara with an average of 15.2 points per game. Mitchell is the leader in assists with an average of 4.3 per game.
On defense, UC Santa Barbara is allowing an average of 74.3 points per game which is 250th. The Gauchos are allowing 44.1% shooting overall and 30.7% shooting from behind the three-point line, which are 244th and 123rd respectively. UC Santa Barbara averages 39 rebounds per game, led by Ariel Bland with an average of 8.5 rebounds per game. Bland is the leader in blocked shots with an average of 1.7 swats per game, while Josh Pierre Louis averages a team best 1.3 steals per game.
New Mexico is tough to stop with the ball
New Mexico is tough to stop as the Lobos are averaging 85.5 points per game which is 24th in the nation. New Mexico is shooting 47.3% overall and 36.5% from 3-point territory which are 73rd and 82nd respectively. New Mexico is shooting 70% from the free-throw line which is 213th. Jamal Mashburn Jr is the leading scorer for Mexico with an average of 18.2 points per game but has missed three consecutive games with an ankle injury, however he could play on Wednesday. Jaelen House is the second leading scorer with an average of 17.3 points per game and Donovan Dent is the third leading scorer with an average of 16.4 points per game. Dent is the leader in assists with an average of 6.8 per game.
New Mexico’s defense is holding opponents to an average of 68.1 points per game which is 119th. The Lobos are holding opponents to 39.9% shooting overall which is 63rd and 31.6% from three point land, which is 153rd. New Mexico is averaging 41.3 rebounds per game led by Nelly Junior Joseph with an average of 7.6 boards per contest. Tru Washington is averaging a team best 1.8 steals per game, while JT Toppin averages a team high 1.6 blocks per game.
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Even though New Mexico leading scorer Jamal Mashburn Jr (18.2 ppg) may not play, the Lobos have two other proven scorers in Jaelen House with an average of 17.3 points per game and Donovan Dent with an average of 16.4 points per game. Two other players also average double figures in scoring for the Lobos. UC Santa Barbara is allowing an average of 74.3 points per game and 44.1% shooting and New Mexico, with an average of 85.5 points per game and 47.3% shooting overall while hitting 36.5% from 3 point land, will take advantage of the weak Gauchos defense. Even though New Mexico plays uptempo which gives opponents plenty of possession, the Lobos are allowing an average of just 68.1 points per game. With both playing very uptempo games, the Lobos have the big advantage, first playing at home and second with such a high field goal shooting percentage. If Mashburn is able to play, things will be even worse for UC Santa Barbara’s defense.
Prediction: New Mexico Lobos
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Full-Game Total Pick
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New Mexico is 20th in adjusted tempo at 74.0 and UC Santa Barbara is 135th at 70.0. The total has finished over in 10 of Santa Barbara’s last 14 games. The total has finished over in four of Mexico’s last six games and in six in the last eight that New Mexico has played on a Wednesday at home. New Mexico is scoring an average of 85.5 points per game while UC Santa Barbara is no slouch, averaging 79.7 points per game.
Prediction: OVER