San Diego State vs. New Mexico Prediction: Aztecs Look to Keep Division Title Hopes Alive Against Lobos

Danny Gonzales must be feeling the warmth in Albuquerque. On his bottom, particularly. 

Now on a seven-game slide, the New Mexico Lobos appear to be waging a dropping battle in making an attempt to maintain their head coach off the recent seat.

And it would not get any simpler for Gonzales and the 2-8 Lobos when the 6-4 — and enhancing — San Diego State Aztecs invade city Friday for a Mountain West affair at College Stadium.

School Soccer Predictions for Each Recreation in Week 12

“There are anticipated outcomes while you make a change at this level in this system, and people anticipated outcomes are to win soccer video games,” mentioned Gonzales, whose Lobos are winless in 4 since putting in Heath Ridenour as offensive coordinator instead of fired coach Derek Warehime. “It is to not rent a man and need to let him alter. We’re a aggressive soccer workforce regardless of a number of the lopsided scores you see and as pissed off as folks get, however we’re nonetheless on the trail to compete for a convention championship.”

Nevertheless, not this 12 months.

New Mexico is winless in six Mountain West video games in 2022 — together with final week’s 35-3 loss at Air Power — so the Lobos are properly out of that playoff image.

The goal now could be to show it round within the ultimate two weeks of the schedule, put a constructive spin on one other irritating season, and — maybe — save Gonzales’ job.

However they will not discover get a lot mercy from the Aztecs, who’ve their very own objectives within the offing. They’d wish to make it 9 straight wins towards New Mexico.

Plus, after changing into bowl eligible with final week’s 43-27 dwelling win over San Jose State, San Diego State stays within the hunt for the West Division title and the convention crown. The Aztecs are 4-2 in Mountain West motion in a bid to make the title tilt.

“Actually happy with the fellows,” head coach Brady Hoke advised reporters after the win over SJSU. “I’m actually happy with how we completed the soccer sport (final Saturday), and we’ve been doing that for the final couple weeks, and we’ve to maintain doing that. We did not begin out the sport the best way we want to have, however I feel all of them got here collectively (final Saturday).”

Sure, it is come collectively simply advantageous recently for the Aztecs.

San Diego State at New Mexico

Kickoff: Friday, Nov. 18 at 9:45 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
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Unfold: San Diego State -14.5
Tickets: As little as $15 on SITickets.com* 

When San Diego State Has the Ball

There are two massive causes for the SDSU’s turnaround from a 2-3 begin. One was the rent of offensive coordinator Jeff Horton after 5 video games. And the opposite was the transfer to quarterback Jalen Mayden, additionally after 5 video games.

Collectively, they’ve helped information San Diego State to 4 wins during the last 5 video games. The one loss got here in a late-game collapse to Fresno State — a 32-28 shut shave — that retains the Aztecs from proudly owning their very own future in chasing a spot within the Mountain West finale.

Behind Horton and Mayden, the offense has been a lot productive, averaging 10 extra factors a sport within the final 5 than it did within the first 4 contests towards FBS foes.

The QB-turned-safety-turned-QB-again ran for 61 yards and handed for 268 and three touchdowns final week towards San Jose State. That effort made him a Mountain West participant of the week.

“I might say ‘hats off’ as a lot as something,” mentioned Hoke of the Mayden’s performances. “I feel it is simply his full dealing with of the offense. While you’re getting all of the alerts from the sideline and the way you current that to the remainder of the offense is big. Once I performed, I used to be an inside linebacker, and I known as the protection, and that was all the time necessary. I sort of relate it to that, and there’s some studying to it, clearly. His composure is one thing that helps him be nearly as good as he’s.”

In simply a short while, Mayden has moved the needle to grow to be one of many convention’s high passers. He is throwing with 65.9 % completion accuracy for 1,253 yards and eight TDs to boast a 155.5 move effectivity ranking.

The senior is making good use of his many weapons, together with high pass-catchers Tyrell Shavers (team-high 477 yards, Jesse Matthew (367 yards and a team-high 32 catches), and Mekhi Shaw (223 yards).

However what’s a Hoke offense with out steadiness with the likes of operating backs Jordan Byrd (76 att., 364 yds.), Jaylon Armstead (47, 308), Probability Bell (46, 204), and Kenan Christon (58, 173)? Mayden himself has 171 speeding yards in serving to to show the workforce’s fortunes round.

And may that proceed this week, it’s going to almost certainly be due to the 1,634 speeding yards San Diego State has racked up this season. New Mexico allowed 428 to triple-option Air Power final week and ranks ninetieth nationally in run protection (164.1 ypg).

“We aren’t good on offense,” lamented Gonzales. “We’re OK on protection, and if we might rating some factors and possess the ball and transfer the ball we might be quite a bit higher on protection. That is my duty.”

When New Mexico Has the Ball

Transfer over, Iowa. You have acquired firm within the offensively challenged division of FBS soccer.

In truth, New Mexico is worse than Iowa. It is dead-last at transferring the ball, counting solely 2,395 complete yards for a median of simply 239.5 yards per sport.

“Clearly, we’re not even near being ok on offense,” Gonzales mentioned. “And even common.”

In truth, the Lobos have gotten worse of their final 4 video games — three of which have come after Gonzales made a quarterback change, placing sophomore Justin Holaday beneath middle as an alternative of senior Miles Kendrick.

In that span, they’ve manufactured only one TD. They’ve scored simply 13 factors of their final two video games. And they’re averaging 11.8 factors per sport towards FBS foes. 

Nothing appears to be working.

An enormous purpose why is New Mexico’s porous offensive line. QBs have been sacked 36 occasions within the season’s 10 tilts.

So Kendrick managed simply 863 passing yards and a 58.7 completion share earlier than he was changed by Holaday, who’s compiled simply 222 passing yards with an unsightly 44.1 completion share.

However Holaday has proven he can run.

“He is athlete,” sophomore huge receiver Luke Wysong, the workforce chief in receptions with 27, advised reporters. “He is aware of how you can make strikes within the open subject.”

Hassle is that is not sufficient.

Final week, the Lobos rushed for simply 44 yards towards Air Power. Mixed with the poor passing assault — solely 4 groups within the nation common lower than the Lobos’ 108.5 ypg, and three of these are triple-option groups the place passing is an afterthought — they amassed simply 172 complete yards in Colorado.

Holaday threw 10-for-21 passing for 128 yards and was sacked 5 occasions. The workforce transformed simply eight first-downs, hardly making for a productive offense.

So all of the scoring has fallen to freshman kicker Luke Drzewiecki, who has eight subject objectives in his final 4 video games, is 9-of-12 on field-goal makes an attempt this season, and has made all 5 additional factors.

Outdoors the kicker, Wysong, and fellow receiver Geordon Porter — with a team-high 303 yards on 19 catches — the intense spot is Nathaniel Jones. He has the one Lobos TD within the final month — a 24-yard run — and a wholesome 4.3-yard common for 466 yards on 108 carries. And he’ll be somebody the Aztec protection will key on.

“What we wish to obtain is to maintain an opponent beneath 100 yards (speeding),” Hoke mentioned. “To this point, we have accomplished job since we began doing that.”

Last Evaluation

It is senior evening in Albuquerque. One ultimate time to say goodbye to these gamers who’ve served the Lobos properly for a very long time. And so they’d wish to exit on a profitable be aware.

“It’s important to go on the market and play the sport prefer it’s your final sport,” New Mexico senior linebacker Reco Hannah advised reporters. “Particularly with the youthful guys, it is construct off of that. We have got to shift the tradition.

“Win, lose or draw, you have to go arduous.”

Which may not be sufficient, nevertheless, towards a staunch San Diego State crew that is trending upward within the Mountain West. They’re on their very own mission to make the season memorable.

“Everyone is aware of that we’ve a brief week this week, however that’s no excuse,” added Hoke. “It is only a shorter week. We’ve work to do, and our guys (need to get) again to it.”

Prediction: San Diego State 35, New Mexico 17

Podcast: Week 12 Preview, Predictions, and Picks In opposition to the Unfold + Response to CFB Playoff High 25 Rankings

– Written by Todd Saelhof, who’s a part of the Athlon Contributor Community and a sports activities editor/author for Postmedia in Canada. Comply with him on @ToddSaelhofPM at #CollegeFootballFrenzy.

*Value as of publication.