New Mexico expert previews the Arizona football game, makes a score prediction

After one of the most tumultuous offseasons in school history, Arizona is finally ready to return to some level of normalcy when the 2024 campaign begins Saturday night at home against New Mexico.

The game will mark the UA coaching debut of Brent Brennan, who spent the previous seven years at San Jose State in the Mountain West. And his first game with the Wildcats just so happens to be against one of his former MWC rivals.

New Mexico is also breaking in a new coach, former BYU and Virginia head man Bronco Mendenhall, and has also played a game. The Lobos led FCS Montana State 31-14 in the second half and were up 10 with six minutes left but ended up falling at home last Saturday.

That result, as well as what is expected of Arizona this season, has resulted in the highest spread for the UA as a favorite since 2016.

To better understand New Mexico, we reached out to Adam Evarts of SB Nation sister site Mountain West Connection. Here are his feisty answers to our lifeless questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: New Mexico certainly didn’t look like a two-score home underdog to an FCS team, that late collapse notwithstanding. Still, what were the biggest surprises from the Lobos in your opinion?

Adam Evarts: “Honestly the biggest surprise was the defense itself. New Mexico had six starters back from last season, and it was supposed to be its most experienced group, yet they allowed 567 yards of offense, including two ball carriers near 200 yards rushing each. That was a surprise that wasn’t a good one.”

Quarterback Devon Dampier, an Arizona native, had a heck of a start to his sophomore year with a couple touchdowns and solid poise. What makes him most effective in this offense?

“Honestly, everything. Dampier can beat you with his arm and legs and he doesn’t turn the ball over at all. He has seen action now in 10 games at UNM and has yet to turn the ball over. When you think you have his receivers covered, he will take off running. Very versatile, he will remind Arizona fans of a light version of Khalil Tate. Khalil Tate-lite if you will. Smaller than Tate, but same abilities.”

New Mexico’s defense was all over the place, returning two fumbles for TDs but also giving up a ton of yards on the ground. Is that going to be an issue all season, and who on that side of the ball should Arizona be most concerned with?

“This was supposed to be the side of the ball with the least amount of worry, and yet they’re the ones who looked inexperienced and young. So, honestly, it may be a big problem stopping the run this season, I am not too sure. With Arizona’s passing attack, Arizona fans will hear a lot of Noah Avinger, the 6-foot corner who will probably take on the Wildcats’ top receivers. Christian Ellis is playing free safety and the Lobo-back position, he will be around the ball a ton as well.”

Being able to solve Montana State’s offense is one thing, but how do you expect the Lobos to deal with the combo of quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan?

“The 3-3-5 defense that the Lobos run has a lot of plays where the blitzes come late, they come from everywhere, and they come fast. New Mexico ended up with three sacks, four tackles for loss, and of course, as you mentioned, the two fumble returns for touchdowns that were both hits on the quarterback. Expect a lot of blitzing on Fifita and for McMillan to go up against Avinger like mentioned above. That will be a fun battle to watch.”

What are your first impressions of Bronco Mendenhall? Is he capable of turning around one of the worst programs in FBS?

“So, I remember when Bronco was the defensive coordinator here (1998-2002). I liked him then, and I still like him now. His coaching style is making the players earn their way. He took the numbers away from them in fall camp and made them earn them throughout camp, and left it up to the players to figure out who worked the hardest week-to-week to earn those numbers back. I like that it allows the players to take control of their own work and makes everyone dig harder. He is definitely capable of turning around the program, but the one downside about New Mexico will be NIL. Not a lot of NIL money is rolling through the school, so it will be difficult to keep players around for many years here. However, while here, he will get the most out of his players.”

Prediction time. Can New Mexico shock the world and upset a ranked team on the road or will Arizona win as expected? Give us a score prediction.

“If one were to take away the two defensive touchdowns that the Lobos scored, that means the offense only put up 17 points. Not good in this day and age of explosive offenses in college football. The Lobos are very young on offense. Talented, but very young. Arizona’s defense is experienced and that spells doom for this Lobo offense taking a step back this season. I think the Lobos defense can keep it close for a half, but then the Wildcats take over in the second half and get a 45-10 victory.”