New Mexico
Middle Tennessee State vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 11-4-2023
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On Saturday, the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders will visit the New Mexico State Aggies for a clash between Conference USA foes. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. MT.
MTSU (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-3-1 O/U) lost 42-35 to Liberty last week. It is 1-3 in conference play this season.
NMSU (6-3 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U) defeated Louisiana Tech 27-24 last Saturday. It is 4-1 in CUSA competition.
The Aggies are three-point spread favorites and the game total is 56.5 points.
Injury Report
Blue Raiders: RB Frank Peasant (undisclosed) and WR Kellen Stewart (concussion) are questionable.
Aggies: No injuries to report.
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Middle Tennessee sports an explosive passing attack
Middle Tennessee State lost a close game to Liberty last week. The Blue Raiders’ offense stalled in the fourth quarter, failing to score any points. They were outgained 541-428 despite passing for 322 yards, as Liberty dominated on the ground (61 carries for 401 yards).
Sophomore QB Nicholas Vattiato paces the Middle Tennessee offense with 2,156 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. His top receiving threats are Elijah Metcalf (40 receptions for 483 yards and five TDs), Holden Willis (31 receptions for 473 yards and two TDs), and Justin Olson (35 receptions for 395 yards and one TD). MTSU’s ground game is led by sophomore RB Jaiden Credle (71 carries for 366 yards and two TDs).
The Blue Raiders score 23.8 points per game (95th) and average 393.9 total yards (66th), including 275.4 passing yards (34th) and 118.5 rushing yards (107th). They convert 42.4 percent of their third downs (43rd) and score on 80.9 percent of their red zone trips (84th).
The MTSU defense surrenders 33.1 points (118th) and 416.4 total yards (111th), including 247.6 passing yards (103rd) and 168.8 rushing yards (100th). They have 14 sacks and five interceptions this season. Middle Tennessee State’s opponents have converted 47.0 percent of their third-down attempts (120th) and scored on 93.1 percent of their visits to the red zone (116th).
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Can anyone slow down the Aggies’ ground game?
New Mexico State edged Louisiana Tech in its last game, as the Aggies’ ground game led the way with 232 rushing yards. NMSU was outgained 371-327 but held the Bulldogs to 3-for-11 on third down and forced two turnovers.
The Aggies are paced by junior QB Diego Pavia, who leads the team in passing (1,896 yards, 17 TDs, and five INTs) and rushing (592 yards and five TDs). New Mexico State also relies on contributions from sophomore RB Monte Watkins (41 carries for 459 rushing yards and two TDs), junior RB Star Thomas (77 carries for 409 yards and four TDs), sophomore WR Jonathan Brady (23 receptions for 388 yards and three TDs), and junior WR Trent Hudson (16 receptions for 319 yards and six TDs).
The NMSU offense scores 29.4 points per game (60th) and averages 427.3 total yards (43rd), including 221.7 passing yards (75th) and 205.7 rushing yards (15th). It converts 36.9 percent of its third downs (84th) and scores on 84.6 percent of its red zone trips (62nd).
The Aggies surrender 21.4 points (43rd) and 375.7 total yards (69th) per game, including 246.7 passing yards (100th) and 129.0 rushing yards (48th). They have 23 sacks and two interceptions this season. New Mexico State’s opponents have converted 35.6 percent of their third downs (41st) and scored on 78.7 percent of their red zone visits (43rd). The Aggies rank 48th in stop rate (65.5%).
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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In a battle between contrasting offensive styles, I’m backing New Mexico State.
The Aggies’ rushing attack has demoralized their opponents, rushing for over 200 yards per game. Slowing down NMSU’s ground game is crucial to keeping it off the scoreboard, as its passing attack is just 75th nationally in yards per game. That said, I doubt the Blue Raiders (100th in rushing yards allowed per game) will be the team to slow them down.
Middle Tennessee can move the football through the air, but can it keep pace with New Mexico State? The Aggies will run the football with ease on Saturday, controlling the game clock and limiting MTSU’s possessions. That should shrink the Blue Raiders’ opportunities, putting additional pressure on them to succeed on third down and in the red zone — two areas the Aggies defense excels.
Bet on the home team to win and cover on Saturday!
Prediction: Aggies -3
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Full-Game Total Pick
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This total is too high, as the slow-paced Aggies (101st in plays per game) will limit the fast-paced Blue Raiders’ (29th in plays per game) offensive opportunities and make enough stops on key plays to keep MTSU from hitting its expected points total. NMSU’s rushing attack will break the Blue Raiders’ defense down, helping the Aggies win the time of possession battle. Middle Tennessee State’s only chance at keeping it close will be through the air, but I’m doubtful it will have enough big chunk plays to get the job done.
At 56.5 total points, I am comfortable betting five units on the under.
Prediction: Under 56.5