Friday morning forecast: Storms could bring flooding to eastern NM this weekend

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – Eastern New Mexico faces flood and severe storm risks through the weekend, with Sunday bringing the best chance for more widespread rain statewide.

A small active stretch begins today and continues through the weekend across the Land of Enchantment. For your Friday, things are quiet to start off, just a bit breezy for the metro as the front had finally reached our area late last night.

Our winds will come down over the course of the morning, but may ramp back up in the afternoon with mainly gusty showers/storms nearby or ones that are able to make it into the metro. We have a 10% chance of rain in the metro this afternoon and evening.

By the early afternoon, storms will start building along mountainous terrain – favoring the central mountain chain and western mountains. Storms will move in a generally east-northeast direction. Eastern New Mexico has both marginal risks of severe weather and flooding threats for Friday. Primary threats concerning the severe weather will be strong damaging wind gusts and large hail.

A slightly higher severe threat across far Northeast New Mexico includes all modes of severe weather possible. However, the tornado threat is very low, only a 2% chance of an isolated spin up or two. Based off of this morning’s high-resolution model guidance, timing for storms will begin roughly between 11 a.m. -1 p.m. for the Sacramento Mountains, and just a couple of hours later for western mountainous areas and the rest of the central mountain chain.

If a storm forms upstream or over the burn scars near Ruidoso, rainfall rates could be potentially heavy, leading to the concern of burn scar flooding. No Flood Watches have been issued as of this morning. A low-end risk of flash flooding is spread across nearly all of eastern New Mexico.

The weekend is still looking fairly active, with Sunday seeing the highest overall coverage of rain thanks to a slow-moving cold front entering northeast New Mexico starting late Saturday afternoon/evening, clearing the state by midday Sunday. Each afternoon/evening throughout the weekend will also feature a flood and severe threat.

The flood threat will encompass nearly all of eastern New Mexico again on Saturday (low-end marginal threat) which then expands to all of eastern New Mexico on Sunday (also low-end, but most of Lea County is in a slighter higher risk). Concerning the severe threat, both Saturday and Sunday will be low-end potential as well. For Saturday this will include most of northeast and east-central New Mexico, just bordering the northern portions of Roswell. For Sunday, this shifts to far southeast New Mexico, including Hobbs. Both will have the same primary threats: hail and winds.

Another round of severe weather is looking likely as we kick off the first day of monsoon season on Monday for eastern New Mexico.