Forecast: Reduced wildfire risk in New Mexico in August, as much of the West burns

The National Interagency Fire Center predicts New Mexico will have typical wildfire risk in August, but it could increase in September and October. (Photo courtesy NIFC)

New Mexico’s respite from wildfires will likely continue through August, according to a new forecast, but experts warn the already long fire season here could stretch into September and October. 

The National Interagency Fire Center publishes monthly fire risk outlooks across the country. Early monsoon rains in early July blunted what forecasters had predicted would be elevated wildfire risk across the state, particularly in the central mountain chain and in southern New Mexico. 

But the new forecast released Aug. 1 shows that average temperatures and substantial precipitation mean New Mexico won’t have high fire risk for August, either. But that doesn’t mean New Mexico is out of the woods. 

“An uptick in large fire activity very well could re-emerge by late August or early September, then linger much longer than usual,” forecasters wrote in their predictions for the Southwest area.

Fire season in the Southwest typically lasts until monsoon season. The forecasts this year have said hot, dry conditions might persist well into October, bucking that typical trend. 

At the moment in New Mexico, there are two active fires, according to the Southwest Coordination Center, including the Tanques Fire in the Southwest Fire, which has burned about 6,500 acres. In the Gila National Forest, the Ridge Fire has burned about 4,200 acres. 

The forecast is released as major wildfires burn elsewhere in the West. There are 94 large, uncontained wildfires across the country, according to the NIFC.

Four fires that began last month in Oregon and California each have burned more than 100,000 acres, including the Park Fire in northern California that has reached nearly 400,000 acres. That’s already bigger than New Mexico’s biggest-ever wildfire, which burned about 340,000 acres, and it’s just 24% contained, according to the NIFC. 

So far in New Mexico this year, 580 wildfires have been detected that burned more than 84,000 acres.