UNLV research: fewer Californians moving to Las Vegas and Nevada

LAS VEGAS, Nev. (FOX5) – UNLV research shows a decline from the pandemic surge of Californians moving to Nevada.

FOX5 told you how UNLV researchers have been tracking migration trends for years, using the number of driver’s license surrenders as a metric to measure relocations.

From 2020 to 2021, record numbers of people moved from California to Nevada and Las Vegas. From 2022 to 2023, researchers noticed a decline and a further drop last year.

Professor Stephen Miller tells FOX5 that the trend is mainly tied to interest rates. Though housing is far more affordable in Las Vegas than Los Angeles, many people have either reconsidered their move or are holding off until interest rates drop once again.

“A lot of people have a low mortgage interest rate loan. So their monthly payment is pretty low. They couldn’t match that in the current market,” Miller said.

Researchers also found that fewer “work from home” opportunities limit the options for relocation. Cities such as Austin have also noticed a considerable decline.

Moving company Muscle Movers has first-hand experience with the rise and fall of residents relocating from California.

“As soon as the lockdown hit, people started bailing out of California left and right. We saw a huge boom during the lockdown for about two years and people couldn’t get out of there fast enough,” said Jeff Stelter, manager of business development. “We saw a big drop recently. This last winter was worse than the crash of 2006, 2007. It’s gotten a lot better now recently,” he said, noting that movers nationwide experienced a similar trend due to mortgage rates.

UNLV researchers also note that people are bypassing a Nevada move for other states—Texas in particular.

Muscle Movers also sees more Californians and Nevadans moving to southern states with relatively affordable real estate prices.

“Most of the people that we move out of California are moving to Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Carolinas and Georgia. Those states above any others are where all the Californians are moving to,” Stelter said.

How many Nevadans are moving to Texas? UNLV researchers are still working to track those numbers through Census data.

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