Nevada vs. San Jose State, Arkansas State vs. South Alabama picks: CFB odds, predictions

Now that paycheck games are largely behind the Group of Five teams, it’s time to identify a few schools flying under the national radar in college football.

This week I’m setting my sights on star passers who are primed to tear up the Mountain West and Sun Belt conferences.

Nevada at San Jose State (7:30 p.m. ET, truTV/Max)

Non-public teams have a better chance of ending a season as a gambling darling, compared to, say, an Alabama or Notre Dame.

You’re not paying a premium for the helmet, so to speak, when you back a team like San Jose State.

The Spartans are 4-0 ATS this season, easily covering by an average margin of 10.8 points per game.

So why are sportsbooks still hanging generous numbers when SJSU plays?

Well, there was reasonable skepticism surrounding the SJSU program just a month ago.

Brent Brennan was one of the last coaches to nab a major job during the offseason, leaving SJSU in the lurch late in the process.

AD Jeff Konya turned to Ken Niumatalolo, a proven winner at the Naval Academy (109 wins, 10 bowl bids).

But a big question remained: What kind of offense would the option-centric Niumatalolo implement in the Bay Area?

He quickly put that concern to rest by hiring Craig Stutzmann as his coordinator.

Stutzmann’s “Spread n’ Shred” offense has been a revelation.

Nick Nash, SJSU’s go-to receiver, leads the nation in receptions and receiving touchdowns.

And you’d never know that Niumatalolo coached up triple-option quarterbacks for two decades in Annapolis when you watch Emmett Brown spin it.

The undersized sophomore is thriving, averaging more than 320 passing yards per game with a stellar 13-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This might be the last week to play the Spartans before the secret is out on this MWC contender.

Nevada will put up a good fight, but Brendon Lewis will likely wilt in a shootout when facing SJSU’s pressure defense.

The Spartans rank 30th in both pass-rushing grade and defensive havoc.

I expect a few costly turnovers from Lewis in a comfortable win for the Spartans.

Recommendation: San Jose State -6.5 (-115, FanDuel).

Arkansas State at South Alabama (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

This game features two up-tempo offenses with dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks who are facing defenses ranked in the bottom 20 of the FBS.

Casual observers might see two inconsistent offenses, but there are simple explanations for that.

In the case of Arkansas State, it has drawn two elite Power Four defenses in the past two weeks (Michigan, Iowa State).

South Alabama, likewise, played on the road in Death Valley last week and was manhandled by LSU.

Additionally, USA played a game earlier in the season with star quarterback Gio Lopez sidelined with turf toe.

Betting on College Football?

When Lopez and Arkansas State’s Jaylen Raynor are operating against lousy G5 defenses, they fill up the stat sheet.

In games against Central Arkansas and Tulsa, Raynor performed like an all-SBC quarterback, racking up 694 total yards and five total touchdowns.

With the exception of the LSU game, Lopez has accounted for three or more touchdowns in each of his starts this season, guiding South Alabama to a scoring average of 57.6 points per game across those three games.

He’s flanked in the backfield by Fluff Bothwell, one of the best-kept secrets in college football.

The breakout freshman is averaging more than 8 yards per carry and will be running into a lifeless ASU defense that ranks 130th in tackling, per Pro Football Focus.

Recommendation: Over 61 total points (-110, Caesars).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.