Montana’s housing market experiences a summer cooldown

Warmer summer weather has brought cooler housing market conditions to Montana.

“The market right now just feels like it’s a bit lukewarm,” said Brian Huskey, a Billings, Montana-based ERA American Real Estate agent. “There is still moderated demand from buyers, but there are a lot of people just sitting on the sidelines right now because housing affordability and rates are playing a big role in people’s decisions.”

In Billings, the 90-day average Altos Research Market Action Index score as of July 19, 2024, was 38.77, down slightly from the 44.48 a year prior and the 51.72 recorded in July 2022. At the height of the pandemic market in June 2021, however, the Billings metro area reported a Market Action Index score of 75.42. Altos considers anything above a Market Action Index score of 30 to be a seller’s market.

While the market has cooled since then, Billings’ drop in Market Action Index score is fairly moderate compared to other pandemic housing hotspots like Austin, Texas, whose score has dropped from a max of 100 in June 2021 to 33 as of mid-July 2024.

Huskey attributes the relative stability of Billings’ housing market to the fact that it is more of a working class community with a stable job market.

“We’ve got a lot of stable jobs at the big refineries and in the medical field, and with that comes stability for the housing market,” Huskey said. “We don’t see the same size of market swings as they do out in the more luxury second home markets like Bozeman.”

Charlotte Durham, the leader of the Bozeman-based, Sotheby’s International Realty-brokered Charlotte Durham Team, wouldn’t necessarily say that her local housing market has experienced a massive swing, but she said it’s certainly cooled down.

“This was the slowest June we’ve seen in many years in our market,” Durham, a luxury-focused agent, said. “We saw things pick up a little after the Fourth of July, but it is still slower than we’ve seen in our market since probably pre-COVID.”

Overall, the Bozeman housing market’s Market Action Index score has dropped from a 90-day average of 32.38 in mid-July 2024 from 66.88 in early June 2021. In the upper quarter of the market, which Altos defines as homes priced between $1.38 million and $2.835 million, it has dropped to 37.93 from a high of 72.75 in Dec. 2021. For properties priced around $2.835 million, the Market Action Index score has dropped to 29.74 from 44.75 in Dec. 2021

This slowdown has been a boon for buyers who are still in the market.

“Especially in the $2 million to $5 million range, there is quite a bit of inventory now sitting on the market and it is great property,” Durham said. “So, I think we are going to have to see prices come down a little, especially in that price range.”

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Compared to a year ago, the 90-day average median list price is down $300,000 to $1.2 million, according to Altos data. In the top segment of the market, which is anything above $2.835 million, list prices have fallen in recent weeks, dropping from $3.6 million in mid-April to $2.9 million in mid-July.

Agents say the lower list prices have been a hard bill for sellers to swallow.

“The market is definitely better than it was the summer of 2022, but it is still similar to the summer of 2022,” Austin Baumgartner, who leads the Keller Williams Northwest Montana-brokered team Hidden Homes Montana, said. “Prices had been going up and up and now they are starting to come back down. We are seeing more price reductions in the market, but some folks are freaking out a little and if a property is sitting for 90 days instead of 45 days like most were, they cut the price to get ahead of other properties.”

However, Baumgartner said the uptick in days on market doesn’t really bother him.

“It is a more normalized market,” he said. “Inventory is rising a little bit, it isn’t as high as in 2019, but it’s better than it has been and it’s still slightly a seller’s market, so we are just moving to a levelized market.”

Statewide, Altos data supports Baumgartner’s assertions. The 90-day Market Action Index score was at 33.66 in mid-July, a very slight seller’s market and 90-day average for active single-family listings has risen to 3,258 listings, its highest level since mid-March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But while the uptick in inventory is good news for buyers, there is no hiding the fact that home prices in the state have risen drastically over the past five years. In the late summer of 2019, Altos data shows that the 90-day average median list price in Montana hovered around $390,000. As of mid-July 2024 it had risen to $725,000.

Statewide, agents attribute this massive jump in home prices to the pandemic homebuying boom and the rapid influx of out-of-state buyers who flocked to Montana. While the influx of out-of-state buyers certainly helped increase property values in the state, agents say it has made thing challenging for locals looking to buy a house.

“It is a more than controversial issue,” Baumgartner said. “It is bad. Montanans have a lot of pride in the state and in owning property here, but most people can’t buy  houses right now. Inflation is too high and with the amount most people make for in state jobs, you’d have to have like three jobs to buy a house, unless you are in a higher paying industry.”

Robyn Erlenbush, an ERA Landmark Real Estate agent in Bozeman, has also witnessed the rapid home price appreciation take a toll on her local clients.

“When Bozeman was discovered again, if you will, there was a big influx of people with cash,” Erlenbush said. “So, you all of a sudden had more competition driving prices up and then you had interest rates go up and it was a perfect storm of ingredients that made it difficult for the local buyer. I know of people who ended up buying 90 miles away from their jobs here in Bozeman because they couldn’t afford to purchase anywhere closer.”

If interest rates were to fall in the next few months, local agents say some buyers may gain an advantage. But it might be short lived.

“It is an election year and people tend to get a little skittish because they don’t know what is going to happen. But if interest rates fall just a little bit, we are going to have a gangbusters fourth quarter, no matter what happens with the election,” Baumgartner said. “There are just going to be a ton of people who want to buy and sell. The stuff above $1 million might still be a bit slower, but the stuff below, I think we’ll see some multiple offer situations. It is going to be interesting to watch.”