FCS Championship Game: Montana St vs NDSU Tale of the Tape | Opta Analyst

It’s a dream matchup, with No. 1 seed Montana State considered a slight favorite over No. 2 seed North Dakota State heading into the 2024 FCS championship game. As they build off rousing semifinal-round wins, we preview what to expect when each finalist has the ball.

If it feels like Montana State and North Dakota State are standing in opposite corners staring across at each other, you have it right.

The 2024 FCS championship game is a heavyweight bout between the top two seeds from an original 24-team field that embarked on the Road to Frisco.

Come the night of the Jan. 6 at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, Montana State (15-0) will have spent over two months as the FCS’ last unbeaten team. But the No. 1-seeded Bobcats’ last defeat occurred against NDSU – a 35-34 overtime thriller in the 2023 playoff second round.

The No. 2-seeded Bison (13-2) are back where most of their recent seasons have gone. They’ve already captured nine FCS championships prior to their 11th appearance in Frisco since the 2011 season – both all-time highs for the Division I subdivision.

A tale of the tape suggests a lot with this season’s FCS championship game. Maybe Michael Buffer should be brought in for pregame introductions.

When Montana State Has the Ball

Incredibly, the Bobcats have scored in 54 of their 60 quarters this season while averaging an FCS-high 41.3 points per game. They want to pound the run – plain and simple.

Coach Brent Vigen’s squad ranks No. 2 in the FCS in rushing yards per game (301.0), with their devasting attack set up by an offensive line whose five starters are all listed as being at least 6-foot-4, 300 pounds (right tackle Marcus Wehr is a two-time first-team All-American).  

North Dakota State rarely surrenders 85 rushing yards to an opposing quarterback, but that’s what Tommy Mellott needs for the Bobcats to gain a third 1,000-yard rusher along with their standout running backs, the physical Scottre Humphrey (1,360 yards, 15 touchdowns) and the big-play Adam Jones (1,134, 14). Mellott has 15 career games of 100+ rushing yards, including in their last two playoff wins.

Ty McCullouch is by far Montana State’s top pass catcher over his two seasons in the program, but fellow wide receiver Taco Dowler has been the go-to target of Mellott (2,564 yards, 29 TDs to just two interceptions) during the playoffs, catching four touchdowns across the three wins.

The NDSU program has long subscribed to the concept that field goals won’t beat it, and the Bison have done well to defend their red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 57.9% of their opponents’ opportunities.

The defense, anchored by tackle Eli Mostaert, allows 119.3 rushing yards per game. The Bobcats, though, have been over 200 rushing yards in each of their playoff wins.

When North Dakota State Has the Ball

NDSU’s offense is different in coach Tim Polasek’s first season from many recent years.

Oh yes, the Bison still flex their muscle with a ground game that’s paved by a huge starting offensive line (it’s a little bigger than Montana State’s, with tackles Grey Zabel and Mason Miller as anchors).

But Bison quarterback Cam Miller, whose 44 career wins as a starter include against the Bobcats in the 2021 FCS championship game, has set career highs in most passing statistics, including completions (239), completion percentage (72.6), passing yards (3,052) and TD passes (31).

NDSU’s 225.9 overall passing yards per game mark their highest average since 2007 and are nearly 26 more per game than in any other season since then. The breakout season of wide receiver Bryce Lance (66 receptions, 964 yards, NDSU-record 16 TD catches) has contributed significantly to it happening.

Make no mistake, the Bison’s 192.7 rushing yards per game are excellent, ranking 20th out of 129 FCS teams. However, in a program that’s been ground and pound over time, it’s the lowest average since the first FCS title season in 2011.

A recent toe injury has slowed top rusher CharMar Brown (1,104 yards, 14 TDs), but Barika Kpeenu has over 1,200 yards the last two seasons and Miller’s been over 500 rushing yards in three straight seasons.

NDSU’s six turnovers are the fewest in the FCS, but Montana State’s defense is disruptive. Half of the Bobcats’ 36 sacks have come in their last five games – defensive ends Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV have a combined for 16.5 this season – and 12 different players have at least one takeaway.

And Then There’s the FCS National Awards

Montana State and North Dakota State also will see a lot of each other at the Stats Perform FCS National Awards Banquet – two nights before the FCS championship game.

Vigen will receive the Eddie Robinson Award as the FCS coach of the year and Brown will receive the Jerry Rice Award as the FCS freshman player of the year (Jones was second in the voting). Additionally, the Walter Payton Award for FCS offensive player of the year is down to Mellott, Miller and Southern Utah running back Targhee Lambson.

Top Photo: Montana State vs. NDSU in 2023 FCS playoffs. (Garrett Becker/MSU Athletics)

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