There was no bigger game on the Week 2 schedule than No. 2 South Dakota State traveling to No. 3 Montana State on Saturday night.

As we do each week, we go behind the numbers of the biggest FCS matchups, using success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what happened in the game. We will still analyze games from across the FCS later this week, but we had to take a deeper look at the biggest FCS non-conference matchup of the year.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is “successful” if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

We take a look behind the numbers from South Dakota State’s thrilling overtime victory over Montana State.

Success Rate: SDSU (41.5%), Montana State (40.8%)

South Dakota State won the most exciting game of the weekend, which spanned two overtime periods in a nationally-ranked matchup. Almost every statistic you can find will tell you this game was played about as evenly as a game can be played. SDSU barely edged Montana State in success rate, while the Bobcats edged the Jackrabbits in yards per play (4.9 to 4.6).

Both teams missed a field goal and lost two fumbles, which led to crucial points for the other team. Montana State was 5-for-15 on third down, while South Dakota State struggled, finishing 1-for-13 on those opportunities. More importantly, Montana State failed to convert its only fourth-down attempt, ultimately sealing the win for SDSU. The Jackrabbits converted on a crucial fourth down in Montana State territory on a scoring drive in the fourth quarter, finishing 1-for-2 for the game.

What’s interesting is that each team only produced one drive over 55 yards. Montana State had two promising drives that ended in a fumble, while South Dakota State was able to capitalize on a blocked punt early in the game for a two-play touchdown drive.

Montana State found more success on the ground compared to SDSU. The Bobcat running backs averaged 5.23 yards per carry and generated 94 yards before contact, compared to SDSU’s running backs, who averaged 4.15 yards per touch and 75 yards before contact. Despite this, Julius Loughridge led all rushers with 99 yards on 23 carries.

Both defensive lines were excellent. Montana State generated four sacks and eight tackles for loss, making several big stops down the stretch. Defensive ends Kenneth Eiden IV and Hunter Parsons led the way for the Bobcats. Eiden had a 17.4% stop-rate, while Parsons posted a 12.5% stop-rate.

South Dakota State had six tackles for loss and was excellent at generating pressure on quarterback Justin Lamson. The Jackrabbits generated 17 pressures on 38 dropbacks and made Lamson uncomfortable all day. Logan Green led the way with five pressures, while Kobe Clayborne and Dawson Ripperda combined for six pressures. Ripperda led the defense with a 14.3% stop rate.

The main difference in the game was Chase Mason’s connection with wide receiver Lofton O’Groske. O’Groske finished with 12 catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns. No other SDSU wide receiver had more than two receptions. The statistic that really changed the game was O’Groske’s ability to win 1-on-1 matchups. He had four contested catches on five contested targets, posting an 80% contested catch rate. Taco Dowler and Dane Steel were the only other players in the game to record a contested catch, combining for three.

Chase Mason did a great job avoiding turnovers while making plays in key moments when they needed to be made. The negative to this game is that he continued to struggle when under pressure. Montana State was able to turn 50% of its pressure into sacks, while Justin Lamson faced more pressure, but did a much better job avoiding the negative play with only 21.4% of his pressures ending with a sack.

Both of these teams flashed a lot of potential while showing they have a long way to go before they hit their ceiling. South Dakota State certainly has to feel good, moving to 2-0 with two ranked wins, giving the Jackrabbits an early advantage to earn one of the top seeds in the FCS playoffs.

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