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Behind The Numbers: South Dakota State Wins Overtime Thriller Over Montana State

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Behind The Numbers: South Dakota State Wins Overtime Thriller Over Montana State


There was no bigger game on the Week 2 schedule than No. 2 South Dakota State traveling to No. 3 Montana State on Saturday night.

As we do each week, we go behind the numbers of the biggest FCS matchups, using success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what happened in the game. We will still analyze games from across the FCS later this week, but we had to take a deeper look at the biggest FCS non-conference matchup of the year.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is “successful” if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

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We take a look behind the numbers from South Dakota State’s thrilling overtime victory over Montana State.

Success Rate: SDSU (41.5%), Montana State (40.8%)

South Dakota State won the most exciting game of the weekend, which spanned two overtime periods in a nationally-ranked matchup. Almost every statistic you can find will tell you this game was played about as evenly as a game can be played. SDSU barely edged Montana State in success rate, while the Bobcats edged the Jackrabbits in yards per play (4.9 to 4.6).

Both teams missed a field goal and lost two fumbles, which led to crucial points for the other team. Montana State was 5-for-15 on third down, while South Dakota State struggled, finishing 1-for-13 on those opportunities. More importantly, Montana State failed to convert its only fourth-down attempt, ultimately sealing the win for SDSU. The Jackrabbits converted on a crucial fourth down in Montana State territory on a scoring drive in the fourth quarter, finishing 1-for-2 for the game.

What’s interesting is that each team only produced one drive over 55 yards. Montana State had two promising drives that ended in a fumble, while South Dakota State was able to capitalize on a blocked punt early in the game for a two-play touchdown drive.

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Montana State found more success on the ground compared to SDSU. The Bobcat running backs averaged 5.23 yards per carry and generated 94 yards before contact, compared to SDSU’s running backs, who averaged 4.15 yards per touch and 75 yards before contact. Despite this, Julius Loughridge led all rushers with 99 yards on 23 carries.

Both defensive lines were excellent. Montana State generated four sacks and eight tackles for loss, making several big stops down the stretch. Defensive ends Kenneth Eiden IV and Hunter Parsons led the way for the Bobcats. Eiden had a 17.4% stop-rate, while Parsons posted a 12.5% stop-rate.

South Dakota State had six tackles for loss and was excellent at generating pressure on quarterback Justin Lamson. The Jackrabbits generated 17 pressures on 38 dropbacks and made Lamson uncomfortable all day. Logan Green led the way with five pressures, while Kobe Clayborne and Dawson Ripperda combined for six pressures. Ripperda led the defense with a 14.3% stop rate.

The main difference in the game was Chase Mason’s connection with wide receiver Lofton O’Groske. O’Groske finished with 12 catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns. No other SDSU wide receiver had more than two receptions. The statistic that really changed the game was O’Groske’s ability to win 1-on-1 matchups. He had four contested catches on five contested targets, posting an 80% contested catch rate. Taco Dowler and Dane Steel were the only other players in the game to record a contested catch, combining for three.

Chase Mason did a great job avoiding turnovers while making plays in key moments when they needed to be made. The negative to this game is that he continued to struggle when under pressure. Montana State was able to turn 50% of its pressure into sacks, while Justin Lamson faced more pressure, but did a much better job avoiding the negative play with only 21.4% of his pressures ending with a sack.

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Both of these teams flashed a lot of potential while showing they have a long way to go before they hit their ceiling. South Dakota State certainly has to feel good, moving to 2-0 with two ranked wins, giving the Jackrabbits an early advantage to earn one of the top seeds in the FCS playoffs.

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Forstag secures democratic nomination for Western Montana Congressional District

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Forstag secures democratic nomination for Western Montana Congressional District


MISSOULA — Sam Forstag edged out Ryan Busse to secure the Democratic nomination in Montana’s 1st Congressional District.

Busse conceded the race to Forstag on Wednesday morning. Forstag had trailed behind Busse Tuesday evening, but he made up ground as the votes were counted into the early hours of Wednesday morning. The other two candidates in the race, Russl Cleveland and Matt Rains, are sitting at third and fourth, respectively.

Forstag leads in close race for Montana’s 1st Congressional District

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Forstag spent eight years as a wildland firefighter, including four as a smokejumper, and he’s been vice president of the local National Federation of Federal Employees union. Last week, U.S. House of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, held a rally in Missoula to support Forstag’s campaign.

He told MTN on Tuesday that his campaign has been for the working class.

“We got a whole lot of people here that have been working their tail off to finally get some working-class representation in Washington,” Forstag noted. “So proud of everything we’ve done and so grateful.”

Forstag further noted he wants Montanans to be able to afford groceries, have universal free childcare and restore and expand Affordable Health Care Act subsidies.

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“Hearing people’s stories and struggles and commonalities in the ways that we’re all fighting in the system that does not serve us so often, and the government serves corporations and the richest people in this country more than working people. It has been frustrating and saddening, but it has also inspired so much hope in me, like the fixes we can actually make,” he told MTN.

The 1st Congressional District covers much of western Montana, including Kalispell, Missoula, Butte and Bozeman. It is currently held by Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Montana, who chose not to seek reelection.

By securing the nomination, Forstag is slated tol face off against Libertarian candidate Nick Sheedy and Republican candidate Aaron Flint in November. 





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In eastern Montana, Brian Miller wins Democratic primary for U.S. House • Daily Montanan

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In eastern Montana, Brian Miller wins Democratic primary for U.S. House • Daily Montanan


Brian Miller won the Democratic primary Tuesday for the U.S. House seat in Montana’s eastern district.

The Associated Press called the race for Miller, an attorney in Helena, who fended off a challenge from state Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy, a longtime legislator from Box Elder, and Sam Lux, a farrier from Great Falls.

In the Republican and rural eastern district, any Democrat will be an underdog, and Miller will face off against incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Troy Downing, who was unopposed Tuesday.

Libertarian Patrick McCracken is also running.

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In the primary, Miller took 58% of the vote. Lux took 27% and Windy Boy took 16%, according to the Montana Secretary of State’s website.

In April, Windy Boy paused his campaign amid “serious sexual abuse” allegations raised by the Montana Democratic Party — but Windy Boy restarted his campaign and later called the allegations “political attacks.”

Miller is representing the victim of the alleged abuse and her mother, although he said he didn’t take on the role until after Windy Boy initially suspended his campaign.



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Western Montana Food and Farm launches new agritourism trail – Bitterroot Star

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Western Montana Food and Farm launches new agritourism trail – Bitterroot Star


The Western Montana Food and Farm Trail, a new agritourism initiative led by Farm Connect Montana, launches May 30, offering locals and visitors a new kind of food and farm adventure across Western Montana.

Running June 1 through October 31, the self-guided Trail spans more than 200 miles and features more than 100 farms, ranches, farmers markets, restaurants, breweries and food businesses across the Missoula, Bitterroot, Flathead and Mission Valleys. Along the way, participants are invited to meet growers and makers, taste what’s in season and experience the culture and care behind Western Montana’s local food community.

At the center of the experience is the passport-style Trail Field Guide, illustrated by Missoula-based artist Courtney Blazon. The guide features illustrated maps, curated itineraries, seasonal highlights and more than 100 local food destinations throughout the region. The guide also includes more than $130 in special offers from participating farms and businesses.

Participants can collect stamps at Trail stops along the way to qualify for prizes, giveaways, or simply as a way to document their journey. End-of-season prizes include raffles for three CSA memberships valued at over $600 each, as well as local food and farm gift certificates, product bundles and Courtney Blazon-designed market totes.

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The Trail is a regional collaboration led by Farm Connect Montana in partnership with Land to Hand Montana, The O’Hara Commons and Sustainability Center and Abundant Montana, organizations working to strengthen local food systems across Western Montana. The project aims to support local farms and food businesses through expanded visibility and agritourism opportunities while reconnecting locals and visitors with the people, places and stories behind their food.

“In creating the Western Montana Food & Farm Trail, we hope to inspire both residents and travelers to discover the stories behind their food and connect with the people cultivating a more vibrant, resilient and locally rooted food community,” said Bonnie Buckingham, Executive Director of Farm Connect Montana. “Participation in the Trail is a win for everyone. It creates new opportunities for farms and local food businesses to reach wider audiences while encouraging participants to explore new places, support local producers and experience Western Montana in a more meaningful way.”

“Land to Hand is thrilled to partner with Farm Connect on the Food and Farm Trail to highlight the robust agricultural heritage of Western Montana,” said Gretchen Boyer, Executive Director of Land to Hand Montana. “This initiative is more than just a guide – it’s an invitation to celebrate and support the local farmers who nourish our communities every day. By connecting residents and visitors directly to the source, we’re strengthening our local food system and honoring the people and landscapes that sustain the Flathead Valley.”

To celebrate the launch, regional Trail launch parties will take place in Missoula, the Bitterroot Valley and the Flathead Valley throughout early June, featuring Field Guide distribution, local food vendors, giveaways and opportunities to learn more about the Trail.

Trail Field Guides ($10) will be available for purchase beginning May 30 both online and at participating businesses, farmers markets and community locations throughout the region. A full list of Field Guide purchase locations and details, as well as a digital map and Trail listings, special events and more information is available at farmconnectmontana.org/trail.

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Funding for this project was made possible through the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service.

Regional launch events
• Missoula Launch Party — LaLonde Ranch, Sun., June 7, 1-4 p.m.
• Bitterroot Launch Party — O’Hara Commons Market, Wed., June 10, 4-6 p.m.
• Flathead Launch Party — Backslope Brewing, Tue., June 16, 4-7:30 p.m.





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