Secretary of State: Idaho’s rapid growth is reshaping state politics

Rapid population growth is reshaping Idaho’s politics and creating new tensions across the state, Idaho Secretary of State Phil McGrane said Wednesday to the Boise business community. 

“If there’s anything to reflect on, it’s just how much Idaho is changing, the rate of growth that we are seeing, and the rate of growth we’re going to continue to see,” McGrane said at an event hosted by the Boise Metro Chamber. 

According to data by the U.S. Census Bureau, Idaho had the second-highest population growth in 2025, which was the largest nationwide in the past five years. With a 10.4% increase comes people from all walks of life.  

McGrane pointed to Boise’s evolving skyline and with that comes new business. Idaho business filings have increased from 425,000 in 2020 to roughly 650,000 in 2025 — a 50% increase.  

But it isn’t just the economy driving these newcomers. Natural disasters and people exhausted from their home state’s politics are also a force. 

Look no further than California: the largest group of migrants to Idaho. McGrane noted that northern Idaho farmers picture them as “blue-haired hippies from the Bay Area.” In fact, it’s the exact opposite.

Seventy-seven percent of Californians moving to the Gem State are registered Republicans. 

“When you see the fires in LA, what I see is people moving to Idaho,” McGrane said. “Your home burned down, you’re probably not going to build it where you’ve just burned down, you’re going to find someplace else to move.”

It isn’t just California refugees contributing to the significant increase in Idaho’s Republican makeup. Migrants from all across the country are sharing similar sentiments, highlighting the 58% to 62% increase of registered Republicans since McGrane first took office in 2023.

Migration patterns are creating more of a divide within the Republican Party of Idaho, he said. Multi-generational Idahoans are concerned with agriculture and water rights, while newer residents are fixated on social and policy debates. 

Voter turnout has been an issue nationwide, spilling into the Gem State. According to data from Idaho.gov, about 73% of its voting-age population is registered to vote. That means over a quarter of Idahoans who are eligible to vote aren’t registered.

To emphasize the importance of voter participation, McGrane pointed to a phrase often expressed by Gov. Brad Little: “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.” 

Just 12% of Idaho’s voting-age population participated in the primary election to select a party nominee for governor. That figure underscores how primaries carry lots of weight in Idaho.

“The overwhelming majority of decisions were just made on the May 19 election,” McGrane said.

Consequences of low voter turnout are often visible in tight-knit elections, he added. In 2020, there was a race for the Ada County Highway District commission, featuring Rebecca Arnold vs. Alexis Pickering. 

The contest ultimately came down to two votes out of roughly 40,000 ballots cast. Around 10,000 voters skipped the race entirely, which illustrates how a small number of ballots can determine elections.

McGrane said those dynamics will continue shaping the fast-growing state’s political sphere.

“One of the biggest decisions that we have as a state is just who gets engaged, who participates and who votes in our elections,” McGrane said.