New genetics model to estimate wolf numbers in Idaho, shows 13% population decline

The Idaho Department of Fish and Game is rolling out a new way to estimate the number of wolves in the state using a genetics-based statistical model.

The Department estimates there were 1,150 wolves in the state in the summer of 2023, or a 13% decline in population from the previous year.

Wildlife Bureau Chief Shane Roberts explained the model starts by calculating the age of harvested wolves.

“There’s a certain tooth that we can pull, and that tooth we send to a lab in Montana that does a cross section of it and dyes it and counts it kind of like a tree ring,” he said. “At the same time, from that same tooth, we can wash it and get the DNA off so all in one sample, a tiny little tooth, we get both the age and the genetic information.”

The DNA samples establish relationships between wolves and are used to estimate reproduction rates.

“The new genetic based method relies on a data source that we’ve been collecting for years, so we can actually go back in time and produce estimates for prior years with the new method,” Roberts said.

In prior years, the department used cameras to estimate wolf density, but according to Roberts, that technique is likely to become obsolete.

”If there’s fewer wolves, we’ll likely get fewer pictures,” he said. “Modeling suggests that as that number declines, that method is probably going to become less reliable. That’s why we started down the path of finding this alternative method that’s genetic based, that does not require us to get pictures of wolves.”

This new genetics method uses a statistical approach similar to one developed in Sweden and Norway, but Idaho is the first state in the U.S. to develop its own model.

The Western Watersheds Project conservation group said it was still reviewing the methodology but Director Greg LeDonne said wolf numbers from Idaho Fish and Game should be taken with caution.

“Past experience with IDF population estimates gives us reason to believe that the new estimate is also flawed, and does not accurately count the state’s wolf population, and in fact, would overstate the actual population of wolves in Idaho,” he said.

These latest numbers are on track with the Department’s controversial 2023 plan to reduce the number of wolves in the state to 500.

“One thing that we need to keep in mind when reviewing any data or other information coming from Idaho Fish and Game concerning wolves is that we are dealing with a state government and a wolf management plan that are dedicated to driving the wolf population down to a level that would once again threaten to extirpate wolves in Idaho,” LeDonne said. “The state government has demonstrated its preference for lethal control of wolves over other non-lethal and more effective methods.”

In the past 12 months, 420 wolves were killed in Idaho, mostly by hunters and trappers.