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Rockies Journal: Nolan Arenado trade has failed to produce what Cardinals hoped
Time brings perspective, even in the hot-button world of contemporary sports.
So it is with the Rockies’ 2021 trade of star third baseman Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals.
As word of the trade leaked out, Sports Illustrated wrote: “Years from now, what transpired in the baseball world on Jan. 29, 2021, will be remembered as the Friday Night Heist. The Cardinals held up the aimless Rockies for their best player, made Colorado fork over $50 million to cover their tracks and left behind an undisclosed bundle of mid-tier prospects for their troubles.”
That was the nearly universal sentiment at the time. And while the trade will forever symbolize missteps by Colorado’s ownership and front office, its consequences are no longer black and white. More than three years later, there are multiple shades of gray.
Arenado appears to have peaked, and now, at age 33, his career is on the downside. And while it’s true that he escaped the losing culture in Colorado, the postseason dreams he longed for in St. Louis seem far away.
The Rockies lost their best and most dynamic player when the trade went down. Believe it or not, they still pay part of Arenado’s salary. Last year, they forked over $16 million for him to play for the Cardinals. This year, the Rockies are paying only $5 million.
The Rockies have yet to replace Arenado’s star power. They tried and failed when they signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million contract before the 2022 season. Plus, many Rockies fans have never forgiven the organization for the Arenado trade and turned their backs on the team, perhaps forgetting that the star third baseman forced his way out of LoDo.
Still, 3 1/2 years removed from that dark day in Colorado sports history, the trade is not the complete bust it was predicted to be, largely because of left-hander Austin Gomber, who’s emerged as Colorado’s best starter. Over his last 23 starts since June 25, 2023, he’s 6-5 with a 3.36 ERA and has posted 12 quality starts over that span (entering this weekend). Gomber was sensational in May, going 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in five starts.
Gomber is eligible to become a free agent after next season, so if he stays healthy, there is a possibility the Rockies could trade him for a decent return. Or, if the Rockies can begin turning things around in 2025, perhaps the lefty remains a cog in the rotation.
Elehuris Montero was also part of the Arenado trade. He was a bust as a third baseman, but with Bryant spending more time in the trainer’s room than on the diamond, Montero has emerged as a decent first baseman. At the plate, however, Montero stands in no-man’s land. It’s doubtful he’ll ever be an impactful major league player over the long haul. Although he’s reduced his strikeout rate from 36.2% last season to 22.0% currently, he’s hitting just .209 with a .570 OPS and a meager three home runs.
But the deal will forever be known as “The Arenado Trade.” When it went down, the storyline was that the 10-time Gold Glove third baseman had found greener pastures. But unless the Cardinals rediscover their winning ways, the trade will ultimately be viewed as a disappointment.
Before Arenado’s bitter feud with former general manager Jeff Bridich, before the trade that Arenado forced, and before the Rockies stumbled to five straight losing seasons (and counting), Arenado told me something that has stayed with me.
In January 2018, he said: “The opportunity to play in October every year is what I want. I want a team that tries as hard as it can to make the playoffs every year.”
Arenado stressed that he didn’t want his career to play out as Todd Helton’s did. Helton played all 17 of his seasons in Colorado, had his number retired and will be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame on July 21. But Helton’s Rockies qualified for the playoff just twice, going to the World Series in 2007 and getting beat in the National League division series in 2009.
“There is something to be said for being with an organization for your whole career; I definitely believe in that,” Arenado said. “I admired Todd, and I admired (Yankees Hall of Famer) Derek Jeter, guys who stick with one team their whole career. So, I have a lot of respect for what Todd did. But at the end of the day, I don’t want to be in Todd’s shoes where I only go to the playoffs twice in my career.”
Still, in the spring of 2019, Arenado signed what was then the biggest contract in Denver professional sports history — eight years, $260 million. Less than two years later, he was gone.
“As a kid, you dream of winning a World Series, and that’s still the dream now,” he said on the day he was officially traded to St. Louis. “To join this organization, they care about winning and about getting things done, and that’s really exciting.”
The reality is that Helton went to a World Series. Arenado has not.
In fact, the Cardinals have yet to win a single playoff game since Arenado came on board. In 2021, they went 90-72, finished second in the National League Central and lost the wild-card playoff game to the Dodgers. In 2022, they went 93-69 and won the NL Central but were swept in the wild-card series by the Phillies.
The irony is that Arenado wanted out of Colorado because he didn’t believe the team was doing enough to build a winning team. But in St. Louis, the Cardinals didn’t do enough on the pitching side to build around Arenado and fellow star Paul Goldschmidt.
That’s haunting the Cardinals now. Arenado and Goldschmidt’s stars have dimmed, and the Cardinals had a 30-32 record entering Saturday as they continued their four-game series with the Rockies in St. Louis. Arenado is slashing .248/.309/.370 with six homers and 29 RBIs. After winning a Gold Glove 10 consecutive years, Arenado did not win one last season. He’s still a terrific fielder, but he’s not the favorite to win a Gold Glove this year.
Meanwhile, Goldschmidt, 36, is slashing .227/.303/.353 with seven homers and 24 RBIs.
The Cardinals’ lackluster start to this season follows a 2023 in which they tumbled to last place in their division with a 71-91 record. That did not sit well with Arenado, who decided at the end of the 2022 season that he would remain with the Cardinals through 2027.
“We have to take a huge step,” Arenado told The Athletic before this season. “I don’t think it’s OK to have another bad year. When you think of the Cardinals, you think of extended greatness and constantly winning. We don’t have time to not be good again.
“I don’t think the fans expect that. We, as individuals, don’t expect that. There is no other expectation other than we need to go win. But that hasn’t changed. I think people think it has changed because of the year we had last year, but the expectations stay the same. It’s just a matter of us taking that leap forward.”
But Arenado is struggling to regain the swing that enabled him to launch at least 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs for seven straight seasons from 2015 to ’22.
“It’s bad. The swing is not good, my swing is not good,” Arenado told reporters at the end of May after going 0 for 4 in the Cardinals’ 3-1 loss at Cincinnati. “I’ve been working on it and trying to figure this thing out, but my swing is not good.
“I’m a guy that pulls the ball in the air and I haven’t done that all year. I don’t know what the answers are. I’ve got to continue to try to find it. I can see the difference of when I was good and when I’m not, but trying to apply it in games right now is really hard for me.”
Arenado’s 2.4% home run rate pales compared to the 6.3% he put up in 2015 when he hit a career-high 42 homers for the Rockies. In 2021, during his first season with the Cardinals, Arenado’s home run rate was 5.2%, and he put the ball over the fence 34 times. So, his decline is not simply a Coors Field thing.
Arenado, the best third baseman I’ve ever seen and one of the most competitive people I’ve ever met, deserves to be enshrined in Cooperstown someday. He has Hall of Fame credentials.
I don’t believe he regrets being traded to the Cardinals, a team rich with a winning tradition and a fan base that lives and breathes baseball. But if the Cardinals don’t rediscover those winning ways soon, with Arenado leading the way, one of the biggest trades in Colorado sports history won’t turn out like anyone projected. Least of all, the man at the center of it all.
The Trade
On Feb. 1, 2021, the Rockies traded All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado and approximately $51 million to the Cardinals for left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, right-handers Tony Locey and Jake Sommer, and infielders Mateo Gil and Elehuris Montero.
Where are they now?
• Gomber: The 30-year-old lefty has become a mainstay in the Rockies’ rotation. He’s 24-28 in three-plus seasons with a 4.92 ERA in 94 games (78 starts). Gomber is 1-3 with a 3.06 ERA this season in 11 starts.
• Montero: With Kris Bryant sidelined by injury, he’s become the Rockies’ primary first baseman this season. In two-plus seasons, the 25-year-old has hit .231 with a .671 OPS and 20 home runs. This season, he’s slashing .213/.279/.303 with three home runs in 52 games.
• Sommers: At 27, Sommer has pitched in relief for Double-A Hartford and Triple-A Albuquerque this season. In three games for the Yard Goats, he posted an 11.47 ERA and has a 7.36 ERA in two appearances with the Isotopes.
• Locey: The Rockies traded Locey, 25, to Tampa Bay in March 2023. He reached Double-A with the Rockies and is now pitching for the Bowling Green Red Hots, the Rays’ High-A team. In 16 relief appearances, he’s 3-0 with a 4.74 ERA.
• Gil: The 23-year-old shortstop reached High-A with the Rockies organization in 2022 but was waived after the season. He now plays for the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets’ High-A team. He’s hitting .237 with three homers in 22 games.
— Patrick Saunders, The Denver Post
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Factors such as declining birth rates and families moving out of the city are contributing to declining enrollment at Denver Public Schools. In turn, it’s reshaping the district’s future.
“I think we’re in a good position, but it’s responsible for us to always be looking in the future and knowing we have to make some adjustments,” said Chuck Carpenter, the district’s CFO.
In a two-year span between this past school year and next, DPS expects a decline in enrollment of around 1,700 students.
“We haven’t really seen anything like this,” said Carpenter in response to the consistent decline.
Because of this trend, the district is facing a $28 million structural deficit over the next five years.
“We have a balanced budget now, and we’re not predicting that we’ll have an unbalanced budget in three years,” said Carpenter. “We’re saying we need to make adjustments over the next three, four years, so that our budgets are balanced.”
DPS’s Director of Campus Planning, Andrew Huber, told CBS Colorado in an interview last month that those adjustments will likely include closing down more schools.
“Additional school closures will be necessary in the upcoming years. When exactly that would be is hard to forecast right now,” said Huber.
The district’s CFO says his biggest takeaway from a recent round of closures is to make sure to give families options for what’s next.
“No one wants their school closed, but the second-best option isn’t going to be the same for every family,” said Carpenter.
This issue could be one Denver faces for years to come.
“We sort of say, how many kids are born here? Because in five years, those kids will be kindergartners,” Carpenter added.
The city’s birth rate peaked in 2005, meaning those babies have already graduated high school. And, according to the Colorado Department of Local Affairs, more young families move out of Denver and into surrounding counties than move into the city.
“I think school consolidation is very — I understand why people want to talk about it, but I think it’s more about, like, how do we make sure that the programs that are offered are rich programs,” said Carpenter.
Carpenter also says the district is closely monitoring some potential cuts to federal grants for students of poverty and language learners. He says those decisions will be made by October for the start of the new fiscal year, and cuts would have a “terrible” impact.
The Denver Broncos hosted eight tryout players at mandatory minicamp this week, including quarterback Sawyer Robertson. It sounds like the team has made decisions on those tryout players, and Robertson won’t be signed (at least not right now).
Instead, the Broncos are signing offensive lineman Reid Holskey (according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler) and cornerback Blake Cotton (according to the Denver Post‘s Parker Gabriel). Holskey (6-6, 306 pounds) spent time on the Houston Texans’ practice squad in 2025 before joining the New York Giants in January. He was cut by New York last month. Cotton (6-2, 195 pounds) is a rookie who spent last fall at Utah, totaling 30 tackles and seven pass breakups in 13 games.
The two moves came one day after Denver wrapped up minicamp. The 91-man offseason roster was already full, so the Broncos will need to make corresponding moves to make room for Holskey and Cotton on the roster.
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Sean Payton has seen enough. The Denver Broncos’ third practice of mandatory minicamp, which was set to happen on Thursday, has been canceled.
“Just schedule-wise, today will be our last day,” Payton said after Wednesday’s practice. “I just finished telling them that. It’s unusual because there’s a lot of packing, a little bit more than normal when you’re moving into another facility. So when we’re back here, we’ll be in the new building.”
The Broncos are moving into their new state-of-the-art facility, but the decision to cancel the final practice of the offseason was motivated primarily by what Payton has seen thus far and how the team is shaping up.
Thus concludes the Broncos’ offseason training program, which featured eight total practices as a team, four of which were open to the media. There was more on-field activity than that, including walkthrough practices unseen by the press, but in essence, we’re talking about eight sessions.
Some players have already begun to separate themselves in their respective competitions. Others have really popped, while some have failed to really stand out in any meaningful way.
By way of a Broncos stock report, let’s get to the biggest winners and losers of mandatory minicamp.
Winner: Bo Nix | QB
Nix finally returned to the practice field on Tuesday, the first day of minicamp. He was limited to individual drills only, but it was still great to see him out there.
On Day 2, though, Nix took another big step forward, participating in a 7-on-7 drill that included a highlight-reel touchdown pass to RJ Harvey. Just getting Nix back on the field was a big win for the Broncos, but seeing him progress over two days and look overall very sharp was more than a little encouraging.
Winner: Jaylen Waddle | WR
Waddle has been a lightning rod since the practices were opened to the media. He just looks different. That speed and explosiveness really add an element to the Broncos’ offense that has been lacking.
It’s been palpable. But arguably just as exciting is what Waddle’s teammates and coaches have been saying about him. Payton has called him a “force multiplier,” which is another way of saying that he makes everyone around him better.
Not that we really had reason to doubt it, but Waddle has been as advertised thus far, and then some.
Loser: Marvin Mims Jr. | WR
Mims is not listed as a loser because of any specific negative plays, like a dropped pass or a mental miscue. It’s just that, with other receivers, including Waddle, shining, generating buzz, and earning plaudits from Payton, Mims didn’t really.
Mims is a similar receiver type as Waddle, but the newcomer made it clear how much separation exists between them in practice. Now, Mims is still important to the Broncos, especially as a returner, and Payton did compliment his clutch gene and contributions in big games, but you have to wonder how he fits into the game plan on offense. That question still hasn’t been answered.
Winner: J.K. Dobbins | RB
Dobbins was his usually talkative self at minicamp, but the fact that he was healthy and out there doing his thing is a major win for the Broncos. It’s good to have him part of the daily process at Broncos HQ again because he’s one of those veterans that takes players under his wing, and elevates them.
Winner: Que Robinson | OLB
With the recent off-the-field drama the Broncos have dealt with, some extra attention was paid to the Broncos’ outside linebackers. Robinson, in particular, separated himself during minicamp.
His get-off is something else, and he was dispruptive during the Broncos’ team periods. Vance Joseph has said he views Robinson as a “future starter.” Pending Cooper’s situation, the future could be now, though Elliss will also have something to say about that.
Robinson had one heck of an offseason. I’m really looking forward to his second year.
Loser: Jonathon Cooper | OLB
After being arrested twice in the span of a week, the Broncos excused Cooper from mandatory minicamp. It would seem the Broncos want to create some distance from Cooper until his legal troubles are resolved, one way or another.
It’s a shame, in more ways than one. Beyond what legal ramifications might await Cooper, he’s very likely to be suspended by the NFL, and the Broncos releasing him at some point is not outside the bounds of the plausible. It’s a good thing that rush linebacker room is stacked.
Winner: Matt Henningsen | DL
None of these winners has been quite as surprising as Henningsen. He made a huge play on Day 1 of minicamp, tipping a Sam Ehlinger pass and returning it to the house.
Henningsen followed that up with another disruptive Day 2. He’s gone from being an after thought in the Broncos’ defensive line conversation to establishing himself as a bona fide threat for the roster.
Loser: Jahdae Barron | CB
Like Mims, Barron wasn’t bad during the offseason; he just didn’t pop, really, in any way. He broke up one pass on Day 2 of minicamp, but beyond that, there wasn’t much to see.
It will be interesting to see how Barron performs in training camp. We know the Broncos have high expectations for him, and a role on defense, even if as a depth piece, will be created for him, but I was hoping to see more signs of a Year-2 leap by now.
Winner: Jonah Coleman | RB
Another as-advertised player. Coleman has proven he’s ready for the NFL, which was partly what attracted the Broncos to him in the draft.
Coleman stood out in a major way at minicamp and made it clear that the Broncos have more than just a J.K. Dobbins insurance policy on their hands. Coleman is a force to be reckoned with.
Winner: Tyler Onyedim | DL
Like Coleman the Broncos’ first pick in the 2026 draft has looked NFL-ready. The Broncos still haven’t signed Onyedim, but that didn’t stop him from participating in the offseason program, which is a good harbinger.
Rocking the No. 98 jersey, it’s easy to mistake Onyedim for the guy he was drafted to replace: John Franklin-Myers. That’s especially true when the rookie is out there making plays like JFM. Onyedim has earned praise from his teammates, including the All-Pro Zach Allen.
Winner: Evan Engram | TE
Engram looked very good in minicamp this week. He looked like a big, athletic, smooth, explosive receiver, which is what he’s been in the NFL.
Engram wasn’t really all those things in his first year with the Broncos, but I’m hopeful that Year 2 will be different for the two-time Pro Bowler. He’s had a good summer.
Winner: Troy Franklin | WR
Franklin seems like the obvious No. 3 receiver in the pecking order. That doesn’t mean he’ll get the No. 3 snaps on an exclusive basis, though.
As the Broncos’ No. 2 last year, Franklin wasn’t able to fully live up to that, although he took some big steps forward in his second year. As the No. 3, it’s more his natural spot and that should allow him to continue to thrive in the offense, especially with the connection he has with Bo Nix dating back to Oregon.
Winner: Sam Ehlinger | QB
Ehlinger had a great offseason. He looked way more comfortable and far sharper in the offense in what is his second go-around in Payton’s offense.
Ehlinger was sharp this summer, and if he can continue to build on the foundation he’s created, it could create some uncomfortable conversations at Broncos HQ.
Loser: Jarrett Stidham | QB
Stidham has been less noteworthy this summer, but that doesn’t mean he’s been bad. In comparison to Ehlinger, though, Stidham wasn’t as good, which is curious, considering his standing as the team’s primary backup since 2023.
If Ehlinger ends up leapfrogging Stidham, what do the Broncos do? They’re holding a competition for QB2, and they have to be prepared for the possibility of Ehlinger winning it, especially after his strong summer.
If Ehlinger forces this issue, Stidham could become expendable. Stidham is very unlikely to be a cut candidate because of his contract, but as a trade piece? There’s a reason the rumor mill has been active on the Stidham topic this offseason. It’s something to watch.
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