Nuggets Journal: Timberwolves no longer Denver’s matchup nightmare after blockbuster Karl-Anthony Towns trade

There are about 220 million valid ways to dissect the shocking trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to New York on the eve of NBA training camp.

There’s the unusual timing on both sides. For the Timberwolves, it was an abrupt severing of a core that lifted the franchise to new historic heights five months earlier. For the Knicks, it was a sudden change of direction shortly after plotting a clear strategic course that involved roster flexibility and a bunch of dudes who went to college together.

Then there’s the immediate impact on two title contenders to consider. The long-term ramifications for each team’s window. The questionable fit of Julius Randle in Minnesota. The substantial depth sacrificed by New York. The scoring punch of Donte DiVincenzo for a middling Timberwolves offense. The enormity of Towns joining a Knicks starting lineup that only needed a center. The financial uncertainty in Minnesota as an ownership war wages. The $220 million owed to KAT by New York as his supermax contract ages.

The list goes on. Seriously, it does.

This was a bonafide plot twist to the 2024 NBA offseason, worthy of M. Night Shyamalan. Now that the blockbuster trade is unofficially two weeks old, there’s been abundant time to process all the basketball and financial layers. And still, it feels like there’s just one aspect that matters in Denver.

The Timberwolves are no longer a nightmare matchup.

That doesn’t mean they can’t still beat the Nuggets in a series. And it doesn’t mean Denver is completely free of the matchup problem they presented in the first place. Nonetheless, the team that conquered the Nuggets is no longer the same, and that should lift a huge weight off the shoulders of Nikola Jokic.

Towns has been roundly critiqued over the years for his lapses in defensive maturity and propensity for committing avoidable fouls, but he was everything Minnesota needed him to be in the playoffs. He was often Jokic’s man-to-man matchup in the post, holding his ground against Jokic’s attempts to back him down and allowing Rudy Gobert to maximize his defensive prowess as a backside helper and rim protector. The double-big lineup was instrumental in Minnesota’s seven-game triumph over the defending champions.

The Nuggets’ starting lineup had averaged 125.9 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, in 958 minutes of playing time. No other five-man lineup in the NBA posted a higher offensive rating in more than 220 minutes. But against the Timberwolves, that same unstoppable Denver lineup was shockingly stifled in 136 minutes, finishing the second-round series with a 102.6 offensive rating.

Towns wasn’t the Wolves’ best individual defender by any stretch. But he was inseparable from the defensive identity that allowed them to prevail.

Now their double-big lineup options are limited to the duo of Gobert and Naz Reid, the league’s Sixth Man of the Year in 2023-24. Reid is an outstanding player in his own right, but Jokic has devoured him in the post. Minnesota might be better off guarding the three-time MVP more traditionally with Gobert, but that matchup historically hasn’t gone well for him either.

“We’re worried about us,” Nuggets coach Michael said when asked about the trade last week in Abu Dhabi. “We don’t concern ourselves with what’s going on outside of our gym. We’re just worried about the Denver Nuggets and what we try to do on a daily basis.”

Smart answer. Malone wasn’t about to step on a land mine and give Minnesota free bulletin board material. Jamal Murray took that line of thinking one step further when he was asked about the trade the day after it was first reported.

“What trade?” he responded.

“I’m not on social media,” the point guard went on to say after receiving the update. “… I just worry about us. I don’t really care about everybody else.”

Towns was also a problem on his better side of the floor, obviously. When Kentavious Caldwell-Pope struggled to contain Anthony Edwards, Malone responded by cross-matching the immensely versatile Aaron Gordon against Edwards. With the Timberwolves playing two centers, that often left Denver with a smaller defender stuck guarding KAT in the paint. His 23-point, 12-rebound Game 7 performance won’t soon be forgotten in Minnesota.

Throughout last season and especially during the playoffs, much was made of the notion that ex-Nuggets GM Tim Connelly constructed the Timberwolves to be a perfect antithesis to Denver. It strains credulity to some extent, simply because the timelines don’t add up. Connelly’s original trade for Gobert that established the center tandem took place in 2022, a year before the Nuggets went on their championship run.

Perhaps he possessed a greater understanding than most executives, owing to his close proximity to Denver, of what the Nuggets were about to become. But if that was truly the driving force behind the Timberwolves’ roster moves, they’ve suddenly abandoned it awfully fast.

Randle is Minnesota’s starting power forward. Connelly’s frontcourt is smaller.

Enter Sam Presti, whose unfinished product of a roster last season already accomplished something intimidating. The Thunder were the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history. Then they threw $87 million at Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. That philosophy on how to neutralize Jokic? It didn’t disappear from the league entirely. It just moved south.

Now it’s official. Oklahoma City has seemingly replaced Minnesota as the Western Conference contender that’s most threatening to Denver from a matchup standpoint. That’s the real plot twist of this offseason, accentuated by the KAT trade.

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault is in a flexible position. Hartenstein might not start most nights. There’s just too much talent to justify using a double-big lineup every night, regardless of matchup. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and now Alex Caruso are standing by. (Dort and Caruso should be even more horrifying for Murray to deal with than Minnesota’s elite wing defenders.) And Chet Holmgren proved himself to be more than capable of holding down the fort as a center last season.

But some opponents might demand a different approach. A proven approach. If a defender as wobbly as Towns managed to help wreak so much havoc against Jokic, imagine what OKC can accomplish with two 7-footers who both have excellent reputations at that end of the floor. Hartenstein is the muscle. Holmgren is Gobert. The Nuggets could get an early look at that coverage next week when they host the Thunder in a preseason game — or a week later, for the season-opener at Ball Arena.

But, hey, at least Minnesota shouldn’t be able to effectively execute that coverage anymore.

Originally Published: October 13, 2024 at 5:45 a.m.