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Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-1-2024
The Charlotte Hornets (7-23; 13-17-0 ATS) are still on the road to ring in the new year. Their journey takes them to Ball Arena on Monday, home of the defending champion Denver Nuggets (23-11; 15-19-0 ATS). The January 1, 2024 contest is scheduled to start at 9:00 p.m. EDT. The Nuggets have won four in a row against the Hornets. Is the streak going to continue, or are the Hornets ready to take steps forward in 2024?
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Hornets are Grounded
Charlotte ended 2023 with 10 straight losses, the longest active streak to close the year. The last three came on the West Coast, as the most recent was a 14-point defeat in Phoenix. All of them have come without LaMelo Ball, while Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams are also out for Charlotte. Those absences are an issue for a team that’s 26th in offensive rating. The Hornets average the fewest free throw attempts per game and rank 25th in true shooting percentage. Their efficiency is below average in all areas of the floor. Along with that, Charlotte is subpar with ball security and offensive rebounding. They’ve only reached 110 points four times during the losing streak, and Monday presents another tough test.
Charlotte is ranked last in defensive rating, so don’t expect them to make up for offensive deficiencies on the other end of the floor. They allow the highest three-point percentage and effective field goal percentage in the NBA. They’re 24th in defensive rebounding percentage, so teams often get extra chances too. If there’s any silver lining, the Hornets held Denver to 102 points on December 23. It was their best performance during this losing streak. Still, things are ugly on the defensive end in Charlotte.
Nuggets’ Nasty Loss
Meanwhile, the Nuggets got embarrassed by the Thunder at home on Friday, falling by 26 to snap a six-game winning streak. Denver has three home losses all season, and two came against OKC. Since December 11, the Nuggets are 9-2, with the only losses coming against the Nuggets. This team that’s eighth in offensive rating thanks to Nikola Jokic should be ecstatic that the Thunder are out of the way. The Nuggets are only 16th in true shooting percentage, but the fourth-best turnover percentage and eighth-highest offensive rebounding percentage optimize most possessions. Denver is eighth in three-point percentage. Getting to the free-throw line and converting those chances is an issue, yet the Nuggets are still a well-oiled machine offensively.
Denver is also tough defensively, ranking eighth in defensive rating. That’s even with a subpar turnover percentage and Aaron Gordon (questionable) missing a few games lately. At all three levels of the floor, the Nuggets are a top-10 team at forcing missed shots. They’re also decent at defensive rebounding and keeping foes off the free-throw line. Thanks to a slow pace, they allow the third-fewest points per game. Defense wins championships, and the Nuggets won it all last season for a reason.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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With the way Denver is playing against everyone not based in Oklahoma City, there shouldn’t be any questions about who wins this game. Considering that Charlotte has dropped 10 straight, the Nuggets winning is a given. The question is, by how much?
Well, Denver only shot 43.3% in the first meeting, well below their season average of 49.0% (4th). That number should drastically improve against a Hornets defense that is the NBA’s worst and allows the 27th-highest field goal percentage this season. The Nuggets can hold the Hornets offense to fewer than 110 points again, even if Charlotte outperforms the 95 they scored against Denver a few weeks ago. This will be a blowout win for the Nuggets.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets -14.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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The last game didn’t manage to reach 200 total points. Denver plays at the NBA’s second-slowest pace, and the Hornets are also below average. This will be a game with limited possessions, which will keep scoring in check.
Charlotte’s losing streak has included six games with less than 110 points, including only 95 against the Nuggets. That trend should extend into this game, which leaves the total in Denver’s hands. The Nuggets will score plenty, but not reach 120. This game will remain under the total when it’s finished.
Prediction: Under 227.5