Can the Browns defy historical trends in Denver against the Broncos?: Ashley Bastock predictions

DENVER — The Browns head west for their second straight prime time game in two weeks as they prepare to take on the Denver Broncos on Monday night football.

Cleveland is coming off of a thrilling 24-19 Thursday night win over the Steelers at home. Denver has won its last two against the Falcons (38-6) and the Raiders (29-19).

Cleveland heads to Denver, however, without one of their key offensive weapons available, preparing to face an aggressive pass rush, and with history not on their side in this matchup.

Here are several storylines for the game, as well as predictions for how I think each might go:

The pass game options with one key player out

With Cedric Tillman (concussion) ruled out, the Browns pass game took a major hit.

In 11 games this season, Tillman has 29 catches for 339 yards and three touchdowns, almost all in the last five games — he’s a player who’s really gotten to shine post-Amari Cooper trade.

Tillman left last Thursday night’s game against the Steelers after a helmet-to-helmet hit he took from linebacker Patrick Queen on the final play of the third quarter.

So who might Cleveland need to rely on with Tillman out?

My prediction: His absence very likely means more playing time for rookie receiver Jamari Thrash, a fifth-round pick who has one catch for 11 yards in four games.

Thrash has played only 38 offensive snaps this season, but has put in extra time before and after practices this year with Jameis Winston in the hopes of staying ready for any opportunity that might come his way.

“You’ve got to prepare like you’re a starter,” Thrash said on Friday. “You never know when your time is here, when it’s your moment.”

Of course, Winston will have to rely heavily on Jerry Jeudy, who will certainly be looking for revenge in this game going against the team that drafted him, and the team he asked to be traded from. The Browns will also need a big game from tight end David Njoku, who had just one catch for 9 yards against the Steelers last week.

The Broncos’ pass rush

The Broncos have one of the better defenses in the NFL right now.

They lead the league with sacks (44), and have nine players with 1.5 sacks or more. Fourteen players have at least half a sack.

They have the third-best overall defense (296 yards per game) and the third-best run defense when it comes to yards per play (3.82). They also have the third-best scoring defense (16.8 ppg)

Nik Bonitto leads the way with 10 sacks, and Jonathon Cooper isn’t far behind with seven.

On the interior they also have Zach Allen, who has the most pressures of any interior D-lineman (52) in the NFL, according to Pro Football Reference tracking data, to go along with his five sacks.

My prediction: This is going to be the most pressure Jameis Winston has faced in a start yet this season — especially when you consider that T.J. Watt was basically a non-factor last week in Cleveland’s win over the Steelers.

Will that make Winston prone to mistakes against his former head coach Sean Payton? You could argue there are few opposing coaches across the league more equipped for game-planning for the gunslinger after their time together in New Orleans.

I’m predicting at least one turnover for Winston in this game, especially when you consider how well Denver’s rush and coverage work together.

Two-time Pro Bowler Pat Surtain is in the secondary, and he’s got three picks this year including a pick-six. According to PFF, he’s surrendered only 25 catches and 177 yards to opposing pass catchers this season.

A tough history in Denver

There’s no ignoring how bad the Browns have been in Denver historically.

Going back to 1970, the Browns are 4-14 playing in Denver (4-12 in the regular season).

Cleveland has won only once there since 1990, a 17-16 victory in 2018. Last year, they came away with a 29-12 loss.

My prediction: Maybe this is simply a weird correlation and there’s no causation.

But it’s hard for me to pick against history here, especially knowing how bad the Browns played at Mile High Stadium a year ago.

With the pass rush and Payton at the helm, I think this is a bad matchup for Cleveland.

I wouldn’t put it past the Browns to surprise us in prime time, but I would rather be incorrect picking with history. I’m going with the Broncos, 23-18.