Denver, CO
Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up with Cleveland and predictions
Browns (3-8) at Broncos (7-5)
When: Monday, 6:15 p.m. MT
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/ESPN, KMGH-7
Broncos-Browns series: Denver is 22-7 in 29 regular-season games dating back to 1970; the Broncos won 29-12 in the last meeting, on Nov. 26, 2023, at home, and have won three of the previous five games against Cleveland.
In the spotlight: Garett vs. Garrett should be must-see TV on MNF
The most intriguing matchup of Denver’s prime-time game against the Browns will take place in the trenches.
Broncos veteran Garett Bolles has been one of the best left tackles in the league this season, and Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett (10 sacks, third in NFL) has been among the best at his position since the day he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2017.
When both teams faced each other last year, Bolles had the upper hand, allowing just two pressures in 13 matchups, according to NFL’s Gen Stats. After the Broncos had their hands full containing Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby last week, they hope Bolles can repeat that performance on Monday night.
“(Garrett and Crosby are) both elite at their position,” head coach Sean Payton said. “They’re both Pro Bowl, All-Pro-type caliber players that can take over a game. We have a ton of respect for those guys. It forces you to have a really good plan for them. That requires a little bit more work, a little bit more calories during the evening meetings, but it’s necessary.”
Bolles and Garrett are set to face off for the fifth time in their careers. In the previous four meetings, Bolles gave up 10 pressures and 1.5 sacks in 49 snaps. Garrett was effective against Bolles in 2021, collecting five pressures and 1.5 sacks in 14 snaps.
When both players squared off for the first time in 2018, Bolles delivered a strong impression, giving up two pressures in 20 matchups.
But Garrett enters this week’s game on a bit of a roll. The Texas A&M product absolutely dominated the Steelers offensive front in the Browns’ 24-19 upset in snowy Cleveland, totaling eight pressures, three sacks and a forced fumble. It was Garrett’s 21st career game with eight-plus pressures, according to Next Gen Stats, as well as his second three-sack game in November.
Garrett had actually been struggling before his recent run of success.
Starting with a 34-13 loss at Washington in Week 5 that saw him fail to record a single defensive statistic despite playing 78% of the team’s snaps on defense, Garrett was held without a sack for four straight games. That marked the second-longest sackless streak of Garrett’s career. But after terrorizing the Chargers and Steelers in two of the Browns’ last three games, it appears he’s back to his disruptive self — and back to being the focus of Denver’s pass protection game plan.
At the same time, Bolles has helped the Broncos be one of the top offensive lines in the league in the final season of a four-year, $68 million contract signed in November 2020.
He has allowed a 5.0% pressure rate — fourth-lowest among left tackles with at least 150 pass block snaps. He is also one of only three left tackles — Baltimore’s Ronnie Stanley and Philadelphia’s Jordan Mailata are the others — to allow only one sack. And he’s done that while starting all 12 of the Broncos’ games without a single bye week in between.
Of course, the latter will finally arrive for the Broncos after Monday night’s game. It will be a welcome break, but one Bolles, in particular, will have to earn.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Denver has had five different players lead the team in rushing so far this season, most recently Jaleel McLaughlin against the Raiders last week. The second-year running back had seven carries for 44 yards while logging his second-highest yards-per-carry average of the season (6.29). Cleveland has generated 67 run stuffs, third-most in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. But the Browns are near the back of the pack in yards allowed per game. Edge: Even
When Broncos pass
In Bo Nix’s last five starts, the rookie quarterback has generated the fourth-best pass EPA against single-high coverage (+30.8) in the league, according to Next Gen Stats. The Browns have played single-high coverage on 63.4% of opponent dropbacks, giving up 10 touchdowns and 8.9 yards per attempt. Broncos second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr. has five catches for 93 yards during Denver’s two-game win streak. And nobody is playing better than receiver Courtland Sutton (36 catches, 467 yards last five games) right now. Edge: Broncos
When Browns run
Browns running back Nick Chubb has recorded 73 carries for 222 yards and three touchdowns in five games since returning from a severe knee injury. He had 20 carries for 59 yards and two scores last week in Pittsburgh. Denver has given up 3.8 yards per carry — fourth-best this season. Edge: Broncos
When Browns pass
Former Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has recorded 12 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II has given up less than 20 receiving yards in four of the last five games. There’s a very real chance those two will line up opposite one another several times on Monday. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
The memories of the blocked kick in Kansas City are long gone for the Broncos. Kicker Wil Lutz was named the AFC’s special teams player of the week after he made all five of his field goal attempts and both extra points against the Raiders. Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins has converted 71.4% (15 for 21) of his field goal attempts in 11 games. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
There’s still a lot of football left, but Broncos head coach Sean Payton has made a case for coach of the year. Despite limited cap space and key departures in the offseason, Payton has found a way to help his team be two games over .500 through 12 weeks. Part of that is because defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has orchestrated one of the best defenses in the league. Kevin Stefanski is one loss away from securing his third losing season as the Browns head coach. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 313.5 (23rd) | 292.5 (29th) |
| Rush offense | 111.6 (21st) | 88.2 (29th) |
| Pass offense | 201.9 (22nd) | 204.3 (21st) |
| Points per game | 22.0 (19th) | 16.9 (30th) |
| Total defense | 296 (3rd) | 345.0 (21st) |
| Run defense | 96.2 (6th) | 130.6 (23rd) |
| Pass defense | 199.8 (9th) | 214.4 (15th) |
| Points allowed | 16.8 (2nd) | 24.3 (22nd) |
(Click here to see chart in mobile.)
By the numbers
10: Sack total for Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto.
361: Receiving yards for Broncos rookie Devaughn Vele.
38: Catches resulting in a first down for Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton.
301: Punt return yards for Broncos returner Marvin Mims Jr.
128: Interception return yards for Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II.
Bet on it
Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown scorer (+130): Sutton has recorded three touchdown receptions in the last three games, including two against the Raiders in Week 12. He and Nix’s connection has grown each week, producing one of the most productive stretches of Sutton’s career. The SMU product is always a threat to make contested catches in the red zone, and that will be no different against Cleveland.
Jameis Winston over 230.5 passing yards: The Florida State product has averaged 295.8 passing yards since taking over as the Browns’ starter in Week 8. He has thrown for more than 300 yards in two starts, including a 395-yard outing at New Orleans in Week 11. Denver’s pass defense is good but expect Winston to be able to air it out.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 23, Browns 17
The opportunity staring Denver in the face is enormous. Get to 8-5. Hit the bye week knowing you’ll hit mid-December no less than two games clear in the playoff race. Turn a late off week that drew groans early in the season into a force for good, a re-set, and a launching pad into the final four games. This team’s taken advantage of most of its opportunities this year. No way they want to let this one slip by. This much seems like a good bet, though: Jameis Winston, Myles Garrett and the Browns won’t make it particularly easy.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Browns 16
The Browns are bad, but shouldn’t be taken lightly. Just ask the Ravens and Steelers, who watched themselves get upset by Jameis Winston and company. Denver has done a good job of beating the teams that it should beat. Expect that narrative to continue on Monday night.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 24, Browns 17
The Bo Show goes prime time, offering a chance for Bo Nix to strengthen his case for offensive rookie of the year honors. The Browns have struggled all season with top receivers, meaning Courtland Sutton will extend his streak of posting at least 70 receiving yards to six games. But look for a play-action touchdown to Troy Franklin to key the victory as Denver takes over in the second half, turning everybody’s favorite backup, Jameis Winston, into a turnover machine.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 26, Browns 18
This one’s for Jerry. Some divorces are healthy, and the Broncos and Jerry Jeudy splitting probably helped both parties long-term. Speaking of help, Jeudy ended up being flipped for two picks, one of which got flipped into another that turned into Troy Franklin. Jameis Winston’s found a rapport with Jeudy, which is cute, but the former’s also been sacked 12 times in his last four starts, including six takedowns by the Chargers. The Brownies have been giant killers at home, but they’ve also produced some giant stinkers on the road. This oughta be another.
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