Broncos Mailbag: Why can’t Sean Payton figure out a way to run the dang ball?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

I’m not worried about Bo Nix. I doubt he’ll threaten Peyton Manning’s rookie record for interceptions. But the failure of the run game is puzzling. There seems to be a decent hole maybe three times a game. Are the blockers inadequate? Or the blocking scheme? Or the runners? KC, for example, seems to regularly use blocking angles to open holes, but I don’t see those in Denver. Payton is right, of course. They need a better running game to help Nix. So why aren’t they getting one?

— Fred Waiss, Prairie du Chien, Wis.

Hey Fred, good question and thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. The bottom line with the running game early on is something of a frustrating answer: It’s not just one thing to get cleaned up before the Broncos are off to the races. It really does seem like it’s a bit of everything.

One play it’s a missed assignment. Or the back maybe makes a cut a tick too late. Or a well-timed run blitz ruins an otherwise productive-looking play.

Then there’s the fact that the Broncos spent all this money on their offensive line — including particularly for players like right tackle Mike McGlinchey and left guard Ben Powers, whose calling cards are in the run game — and they haven’t run the ball all that much. Denver’s 35.2% run rate is fourth-lowest in the NFL through two weeks. And yes, they’ve been chasing points in games, but their first-half run rates are not dramatically different than the overall numbers so far.

A couple of other considerations: The first is that the Broncos have faced a couple of quality defenses, particularly Pittsburgh’s. Not every team is going to be that stout.

More concerning, though: Defenses aren’t yet scared of Denver’s passing attack, so they don’t feel the need to play on their heels or stress about making sure they can take away every blade of grass down the field. That’s manifested in the Broncos facing eight defenders in the box 27.3% of the time so far, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.

Now, some teams are capable of still being productive on the ground in those scenarios. The L.A. Chargers (no surprise under new coach Jim Harbaugh), New Orleans and New England are among the teams running the ball well despite facing eight-man boxes more frequently than almost everybody in the league.

One more trend that I’ve got a few questions about this week is the Broncos pass/run splits between shotgun and under center.

Denver’s 78% pass from shotgun (fifth-highest) and only 22% pass from under center (No. 25) through two games, according to NGS. If you factor in six Bo Nix scrambles so far this season, those numbers tilt to 86% pass out of the gun and 25% pass from under center. Obviously it tracks that teams throw more out of the gun than from under center, but those rates are a little bit extreme.

Here are the Broncos’ past couple of seasons for comparison (not scramble-adjusted):

2023

Gun pass rate: 77% (No. 9)

UC pass rate: 27.8% (T-15)

2022

Gun pass rate: 73.1% (No. 17)

UC pass rate: 33.8% (No. 10)

I am amazed at the criticism Bo Nix is getting after one start. I thought he played well considering he was playing against a very good team in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL. I believe he got better as the game went on and it would have been interesting last two minutes if Denver had gotten the ball back. Remember how bad Peyton Manning was in his rookie year. This type of fan and press reaction is how quarterbacks fail. Just give him time.

— Tim Eitel, Orlando, Fla.

Hey Tim, thanks for the note and generally speaking, the thought holds true after two starts as well.

Multiple things can be true at the same time: Nix has had several rough moments in his first two starts, the Broncos offense has been bad and it’s certainly not all his fault. Nor is two games the time to make sweeping proclamations about what Nix can or can’t be in the NFL.

It’s fair to wonder if some of the struggles through the first couple of outings portent limitations for Denver this year. It’s fair to wonder if Nix was quite as ready as the Broncos’ coaching staff thought he was. But there’s also a lot of conjecture out there.

Development takes patience and there’s very little of it in the NFL across the board.

Generally speaking, that’s true of front offices and coaching staffs but also of the media landscape.

People writing Nix off as a bust already are doing the same disservice to their audience that those who raced to paint him during camp as if he could do no wrong and play great from the start did to theirs. It’s just guessing in hopes that you’re right so you can look back at some point and say, “See, I was right.”

Are there some issues that catch your attention through two games? Yes. They figured to be coming, but they’ve jumped off the screen. Are there also things worth building on? Definitely.

Can Bo Nix actually, over not just the next couple of weeks but beyond that, eliminate some of the issues, build on the foundation and then from there further grow his game? We’ll all find that out together.

Whose bright idea (sarcasm) was it for the Broncos to wear white at home? The downplaying of our color, which is orange, is beyond stupid by the management.

— James Doughtry, Denver

Hello Parker! Hidden behind the team’s bad performances lies an interesting plot. Counting the preseason, the Broncos already played five games, including three at home. And yet they only played in their white jersey, which is not supposed to be their primary color! They mixed it up with different pants colors, almost as if they’re looking for something. Are they trying to pull something? Are they testing something for further rebrand? Or is my brain trying to protect me from the product on the field that I focus on this kind of detail?

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Oh man, two uniform questions! You know it’s a rough start to the season when…

James and Yoann are an ocean apart but share the sentiment.

It’s not trying to pull something or testing for a further rebrand, Yoann. Once you make a change to the jersey, you’re locked in for a minimum of five years.

It seems to me to be more about showcasing some of the varieties after the major offseason uniform update. They’ve got 10 different jersey/trouser combinations and they probably want to see a few of them in action to get a feel for what sticks and what looks best.

Over the course of time I would guess you’ll see it trend toward a more normal home/road split, though who knows, maybe they’ll continue showcasing a variety of combinations for a bit here.

One thing is certain: It’ll be cool when they break out the 1977 replica retro uniforms.

So yeah, Yoann, it’s been noticeable so far this season, but it might also be your brain diverting your attention.

Parker, Tyler Badie was the one running back who actually popped for a big run on Sunday and then he was taken out the very next play. Why? Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for 23 yards on 14 carries. Why take out the one guy who did something when you’re trying to establish a run game. Also, do you expect Lil’Jordan Humphrey to have a bigger role in Week 3? He looked pretty good out there.

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, great question. Payton got asked about Badie specifically on Monday after his one carry, 16-yard performance, so I’m putting part of his answer here. In general, Payton said it’s difficult to really, truly get solid numbers of reps for three backs and that Badie had some red zone and situational work that Denver just didn’t get to because its offense was so poor overall.

“Getting the third back involved, sometimes it’s special teams, sometimes in the passing game,” Payton said. “And it was a good run by him. It’s something we’re — you take notice of it though. It’s something as a play caller, as someone who’s looking at the game, I’ve got to be able to see that.”

It’ll be interesting to see if Badie works his way into a bigger role going forward. He can be called up from the practice squad two more times before the Broncos would have to sign him to the 53-man roster, but Estime has to miss at least three more games.

As for Humphrey, he’ll keep getting targets, but I don’t think you’ll see a major role change. He’s the kind of guy Payton likes in part because Payton knows exactly who he is and how he wants to use him.

It’ll depend a little bit on availability, like always. We’ll see as the week goes along if rookie Devaughn Vele is trending toward returning this weekend at Tampa. He had eight catches, mostly underneath, in Week 1. Seemed like Humphrey collected a few of those against Pittsburgh.

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