Analysis: How these seven top Denver mayoral candidates could make the runoff

Simply days earlier than Denver’s mayoral election, not a lot is clearer than it was a month in the past.

Thousands and thousands of {dollars} have been spent by the campaigns and their outdoors supporters. Dozens of boards and debates have given the 16 energetic contenders an opportunity to distinguish themselves. They’ve touted a great deal of endorsements.

But because the first-round election approaches on Tuesday, no clear frontrunners have emerged to depart the remainder of the sector of their mud. Undecided voters nonetheless appear to make up the most important bloc, as evidenced by the glacial tempo of poll returns. Lower than 14% of mail ballots had been returned as of Friday, in response to the Denver Elections Division.

“Persons are on the lookout for a standout candidate, they usually’re on the lookout for a cause to vote,” mentioned James Mejía, a Denver civic chief, former metropolis official and mayoral candidate in 2011. “This one has thrown folks for a loop. It’s unprecedented in Denver historical past in so some ways.”

The big discipline, a operate of each the primary open race for mayor in 12 years and a brand new public financing program, has been powerful for a lot of voters to slender down as additionally they make selections for Metropolis Council, different places of work and poll questions. There’s additionally been a dearth of public polling to verify which candidates may be catching traction within the weeks since a pair of February polls reported that no candidate had registered help above the only digits.

It’s doable some voters will throw up their arms and look forward to the runoff on June 6. For now, a number of outstanding elected officers and main unions have stayed on the endorsement sidelines.

However the race isn’t all a muddle. Seven candidates have the perfect shot of constructing the runoff, in response to a spread of outdoor political observers and marketing campaign insiders who shared their reads of the race primarily based on each clear floor indicators and extra refined components. As long as no person receives greater than 50% of the vote — the requirement to win outright on Tuesday — the highest two finishers will advance to the following spherical.

Mejía suspects they doubtlessly may make the runoff with as little as 15% of the vote.

“It’s anyone’s race — it’s going to be whoever will get out the vote” amongst these prime contenders, mentioned Jeff Fard, a 5 Factors neighborhood activist, often known as Brother Jeff, who’s carefully adopted the election.

Right here’s a take a look at which candidates are finest positioned and the components, moreover robust fundraising, that would propel them to the runoff.

Kelly Brough

The reasonable candidate has attracted a raft of multinational endorsements, together with from former Gov. Invoice Ritter, previous Denver Metropolis Council members and present suburban mayors. Huge backing from the enterprise neighborhood has helped make her the highest fundraiser. A former chief of employees to then-Mayor John Hickenlooper earlier than she led the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce, Brough lacked a recognizable title amongst most voters. However she’s met that problem with a continuing stream of TV adverts introducing herself, alongside along with her compelling private story.

An out of doors group has spent almost $1 million backing her up with a separate advert marketing campaign and floor sport. Brough earned the endorsement of the Denver Gazette’s editorial board, together with the backing of former candidate Kwame Spearman.

Mike Johnston

After operating unsuccessfully for governor and U.S. senator, Johnston has mounted a powerful marketing campaign for mayor, outlined by a optimistic outlook. The previous educator and state senator from northeast Denver has relied on robust ties inside his former district — together with within the Black neighborhood, regardless of a marketing campaign flyer misstep — whereas tapping a large donor community that was buttressed by his time main Gary Neighborhood Ventures, a philanthropic basis.

His allies are on observe to spend greater than $2 million independently on mailers and the race’s most sturdy advert marketing campaign by far, dwarfing the Johnston marketing campaign’s personal adverts buys. Johnston additionally earned the endorsement of The Denver Submit’s editorial board (which is separate from The Submit’s information operation).

Leslie Herod

The state consultant entered the race with a powerful base of supporters, owing to years of outstanding work within the legislature on felony justice reform and different points. TV adverts haven’t figured strongly in her marketing campaign technique, which was targeted on constructing a community of neighborhood-level grassroots supporters early on. She attracted the early endorsement of former Mayor Wellington Webb, together with backing from notable figures in native and state politics, together with former Colorado first girl Dottie Lamm.

Herod has benefited from an outdoor group that’s spent almost $170,000 in help of her candidacy, together with on modest TV advert buys and canvassing.

Lisa Calderón

Although she hasn’t held elected workplace, Calderón has constructed on her help base from the 2019 mayoral election, when she gained 18.5% of the vote to complete third. She additionally has robust neighborhood ties from activist work on felony justice and Latino points. Lately Calderón, the chief of Emerge Colorado, gained the backing of a trio of progressive teams, together with the Colorado Working Households Celebration and the Denver Democratic Socialist of America, that are also working to elect progressive Metropolis Council candidates — although that coordination has prompted current marketing campaign finance complaints.

That backing, together with assured debate performances, ought to assist Calderón compete with Herod for progressive voters. Although Calderón hasn’t purchased any TV advert time, she gained one energy, by luck, that no different candidate has: the highest poll place.

Chris Hansen

It might be simple to depend out the state senator from east Denver. He took a threat by being the primary candidate to air marketing campaign adverts, beginning in mid-February, however was unable to maintain the preliminary tempo of advert buys after fundraising didn’t sustain. However Hansen has a base of help and title recognition from six years within the legislature, together with endorsements from a number of present and former legislators and former Gov. Roy Romer. He’s additionally drawn modest outdoors spending help in current weeks.

Deborah “Debbie” Ortega

The three-term at-large Metropolis Council member is the one candidate that voters have seen on their ballots in every of the final three municipal elections — and she or he led the sector of at-large candidates citywide every time. Ortega, who earlier represented a council district in west and northwest Denver for a number of phrases, has deep ties within the Latino neighborhood. She’s drawn a raft of endorsements from political figures from the town’s previous, together with state Sen. Lucía Guzmán, and has been endorsed by a number of unions, together with these representing Denver sheriff’s deputies and firefighters; the latter union has reported spending greater than $120,000 independently in help of Ortega.

Andy Rougeot

The entrepreneur and Military veteran may very well be the most important stretch on this listing, since he’s a Republican operating in a metropolis with simply shy of 10% of voters sharing his affiliation. However the largely self-funding candidate — he’s reported loaning his marketing campaign $850,000 up to now — has hammered messages targeted on getting powerful on crime and cracking down on homelessness in a 12 months many are annoyed with these issues. His advert, connecting his army service in Afghanistan to his mission for Denver, has been a fixture on TV for weeks.

Stranger issues than a Republican breaking by may occur, however as political analyst Eric Sondermann factors out, it’s doubtless {that a} reasonable similar to Brough will siphon off conservative voters who see her as extra viable in a runoff.

The remainder of the sector

A number of different candidates have damaged $100,000 in fundraising, demonstrating wholesome bases of help, even when they have been aided by public matching funds. Ean Thomas Tafoya and Terrance Roberts, particularly, entered the race with expertise in grassroots activism.

Don’t write off the possibility {that a} lesser-known candidate would possibly break by to complete among the many prime names, particularly with six of the seven main candidates — all however Calderón — clustered within the second half of the poll order.

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