Unaffiliated voters this year cast more ballots in Colorado Republican primaries than ever before

Unaffiliated voters in Colorado, who make up 45% of the state’s voters, have been capable of solid ballots in partisan primaries for 3 election cycles. 

However they’ve by no means voted in a Republican major as they did in 2022.

Greater than 231,000 unaffiliated voters solid Republican major ballots this 12 months, about 100,000 greater than selected to vote within the GOP major in 2020 and 130,000 greater than voted within the 2018 GOP major.

Ben Engen, a conservative political strategist, stated the script flipped this 12 months from 2018.

Engen stated that may very well be a sign that unaffiliated voters are leaning towards GOP candidates heading into November. “Everyone knows how Republicans fared amongst unaffiliated voters and within the elections of 2018,” he stated.

Ian Silverii, a Democratic political strategist whose spouse, state Sen. Brittany Pettersen, is working within the seventh Congressional District, disagrees with Engen’s evaluation. 

Silverii factors on the market had been no contested statewide Democratic primaries this 12 months, whereas there have been fierce battles for the Republican nominations for U.S. Senate, governor and secretary of state. Merely put, the GOP primaries had been extra aggressive, and that may very well be why so many extra unaffiliated voters determined to solid Republican major ballots this 12 months.

“There’s no proof in any respect that major votes with an uncontested Democratic poll and an virtually utterly contested Republican poll could have any bearing on the final election in anyway,” he stated. 

The variety of unaffiliated ballots solid for Republicans is predicted to rise as extra ballots are processed within the coming days. There have been about 40,000 unaffiliated ballots throughout the state that also needed to be tabulated as of Friday morning, in keeping with the Colorado Secretary of State’s Workplace.

In the meantime, it seems to be like 2022 would be the 12 months with the bottom variety of Democratic major ballots solid by unaffiliated voters. 

Solely about 161,000 unaffiliated voters’ ballots processed by means of Friday morning had been solid within the Democratic major. The earlier low was in 2018, the primary 12 months unaffiliated voters might solid ballots in partisan primaries, when 179,742 voted Democratic ballots.

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In some counties, unaffiliated voters solid greater than half of all GOP major ballots

Unaffiliated voters had been the deciding think about some counties’ GOP primaries, accounting for greater than half of all of the Republican major votes solid.

San Miguel County, for example, had the very best proportion of Republican major ballots solid by unaffiliated voters, at 70%. Of the 1,191 GOP major votes solid this 12 months within the county, 836 had been solid by unaffiliated voters.

Ouray County got here in second at 60% of the GOP major votes being solid by unaffiliated voters, whereas Pitkin and Gunnison counties weren’t far behind, at 59% every.. 

All of these counties are within the third Congressional District, the place there was a loosely organized effort to get Democrats to change their voter affiliation to unaffiliated to solid ballots within the Republican major for state Sen. Don Coram as a part of an unsuccessful effort to dam U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert from successful a second time period.

In Denver, a liberal stronghold,48% of all of the Republican ballots solid had been solid by unaffiliated voters.

Even Boulder County, thought-about probably the most reliably Democratic a part of Colorado, noticed a big portion of its unaffiliated voter voters — 44% — solid ballots within the Republican primaries.

Turnout was uneven in congressional districts

A complete of 1,204,528 ballots had been solid on this 12 months’s primaries, leading to a 32% turnout amongst energetic, registered voters. 

The congressional major this 12 months with the most important variety of ballots solid was the Republican contest within the third Congressional District. Greater than 128,000 ballots had been solid within the race through which Boebert simply fended off Coram.

The 4th District GOP contest got here in second, with greater than 120,000 ballots solid. In that race, U.S. Rep. Ken Buck secured a giant victory over Bob Lewis, an Elbert County actual property dealer.

Curiously sufficient, the Republican major with the fewest ballots solid was within the new, extremely aggressive eighth Congressional District. Roughly 57,000 ballots had been solid in that race.

The eighth District isn’t a ruby pink district just like the third and the 4th districts, so there have been fewer Republicans voting within the major race.

The Colorado Solar has heard from some voters within the eighth District who had been unaware they stay in a brand new battleground. The district additionally has the fewest variety of registered voters of all eight congressional districts in Colorado.

The low quantity is additional indication that the eighth District basic election race will probably hinge on turnout. There may be count on to be a really large voter registration and get-out-the-vote push within the district over the summer time and within the fall.