Four Reasons BYU Can Win the Alamo Bowl Over Colorado

Let’s be honest, if this was an independence era bowl game, BYU fans would be throwing a parade down Center Street. A standalone Saturday night game on ABC against a ranked Colorado team and Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter might be a top five BYU bowl game. Of course everyone wanted to face Colorado in a Big 12 title game, but I guess fans will have to settle for this. Bummer (heavy sarcasm).

A BYU win over Colorado would go a long way to take the sting off a disappointing end to an otherwise magical season. A win tonight secures an 11-win season, a top-15 ranking, and enough offseason momentum to likely earn BYU a preseason ranking that unfortunately matters a lot more than you think. Here are four reasons I think BYU gets that done.

Advanced analytics think this is a good matchup for BYU. BYU’s offense is 22nd and expected points added (EPA) per rush compared to 43rd for Colorado’s defense against the run. Meanwhile, BYU’s defense ranks 27th in EPA per rush and 12th in EPA per drop back compared to 73rd and 25th respectively for Colorado’s offense. The only EPA edge Colorado holds is their 24th national ranking in defensive EPA per drop back compared to 36th for BYU’s offense. BYU is also 14th nationally in net yards per play compared to 27th. In less data nerd speak, BYU generates bigger plays than Colorado on average on a per-play basis. The task then becomes whether Jake Retzlaff can continue to generate the big plays without the costly mistakes that plagued BYU in the month of November.

You would be hard pressed to find a quarterback who has been under more pressure this season than Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Colorado ranks 124th nationally in sacks allowed (3.5 per game) while allowing QB hurries on over a third of Sanders’ drop backs. When pressured, Sanders’ completion percentage drops from 80% to 54% while his turnover play rate nearly doubles. Most alarmingly for Colorado, over 20% of pressures allowed turn into sacks. That is welcome news for a BYU defense that has been able to put pressure on quarterbacks all season, but has struggled to get home on opposing quarterbacks. If BYU can get Colorado off schedule with QB pressure on early downs, Colorado’s 39% 3rd/4th down conversion rate won’t be enough to keep Colorado’s high-flying offense on the field.

You may not like it, but sometimes the easiest way to play defense is to never let an opposing offense get on the field. If any team is good at that, it’s BYU. BYU is the 3rd best offense in the country at generating drives that reach scoring position and 23rd in available yards gained per drive. Translation: BYU moves the ball as well as anyone in the country. The struggles have come with red zone execution over the last month with boneheaded mistakes and turnovers. BYU will be able to keep Colorado’s offense off the field for long stretches with a consistent run game. Whether they win or not will come down to whether they can capitalize with touchdowns on those long drives like they did early in the season.

Colorado ranks dead last nationally in rush yards per game (71) and third to last in yards per rush (2.6). I don’t think that gets any better against a BYU defense that ranks top 50 in both. Instead of the run game, Colorado has relied on the quick passing game to fill the void left by an ineffective run game. Over 60% of Sanders’ passes travel 10 yards or less with a nearly 20% screen rate. These throws are incredibly efficient for Colorado, as nearly 90% of these throws are completed to a plethora of elusive wide receivers led by Heisman trophy winner Travis Hunter with space to work.

BYU’s ability to tackle in space on the edges will be vital. BYU is stronger in this regard than you think. BYU’s linebacking trio of Jack Kelly, Isaiah Glasker, and Harrison Taggart all have exceptional speed while 3 of BYU’s top 4 cornerbacks all have tackling grades above 70 on PFF. If BYU can limit the screen game and force Colorado into higher risk throws down field, there will be more opportunities for an elite BYU secondary to make the game changing plays they have made all season long.

If BYU’s pass rush can’t get to Shedeur Sanders and BYU turns the ball over multiple times, this game could snowball in the wrong direction. On the flip side, if BYU plays successful and clean run-centric football, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders won’t be on the field enough to do any real damage.

Teams that beat Colorado are teams that run the football. Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State combined to run for 665 yards and were +40 in combined time of possession. That is BYU’s path to victory. BYU won’t run for 330 yards like Kansas did, but they can match the 150-mark put up by Nebraska. BYU has averaged 172.5 yards rushing per game over their last 8 games and with at least 2 9+ play drives in every game over that span. Don’t overcomplicate it. Run the [redacted] ball and let Jay Hill and LJ Martin take BYU to their second 11-win season in the last 15 years.

BYU 27 – Colorado 24