Since U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert opted to change her address to one clear across the state late last year, the race for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District has fallen out of the media glare that seemingly shines on the controversial Republican congresswoman wherever she goes.

But Colorado’s largest district by land mass — taking in Grand Junction, Gunnison, Durango and Pueblo — may prove a critical contest in a closely divided Congress where the major parties are always hungry to flip a seat. That’s true, a political observer said, even if a Democrat hasn’t represented the district since John Salazar lost the 2010 election to Scott Tipton.

One big reason: Adam Frisch.

The Democrat who came within 546 votes of unseating Boebert two years ago on the Western Slope now possesses solid name recognition, including outside Colorado, and “a massive advantage in campaign finance,” said Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at Colorado State University.

Even since Boebert announced her decision to switch to the open race in the 4th Congressional District on the Eastern Plains, Frisch — who’s unopposed in the June 25 primary — has outraised every other congressional candidate in the state.

“With the margin of control of the House of Representatives being so very close, every competitive seat should — and no doubt will — be contested vigorously,” Saunders said. “While CD3 is not the most competitive seat on that list, I still expect both sides to fully engage in fighting hard for it.”

In the generally L-shaped district, which stretches from lonely Kleins Hill in the northwest corner of the state to the tiny town of Kim in Las Animas County, southeast of Pueblo, the district’s biggest voter group — at nearly 230,000-strong — are those affiliated with no party.

But with the polarizing Boebert out, it’s possible the political dynamics will revert closer to normal. That would mean, Saunders said, that “a generic Republican beats a generic Democrat by seven points” in the 3rd District, which boasts 35,000 or so more active GOP voters than Democrats.

In November, Frisch, 56, a former Aspen city councilman, will face one of a half dozen candidates seeking the Republican nomination in June — including attorney Jeff Hurd, Colorado Board of Education member Stephen Varela and ultra-conservative former state lawmaker Ron Hanks.

The other GOP contenders are Russ Andrews, a Carbondale financial adviser; Curtis McCrackin, a Delta County businessman; and Lew Webb, a former car dealership owner who lives in Durango.

Frisch’s performance in 2022 revealed the second-term congresswoman’s vulnerability among voters who had grown tired of her antics and penchant for generating unflattering headlines.

“Frisch has an experienced organization now,” Saunders said.

His financial advantage adds up to nearly $6 million on hand as of the end of March. It’s money Frisch can use to run ads and blanket the district with his name and face on yard signs. It’s more than what the six Republican candidates battling it out in the primary have in their war chests — combined.

For his part, the Democratic candidate knows he likely has a tough fight ahead without Boebert as a powerful foil.

“I am confident that the 50,000 miles driven and speaking in front of Democrats, independents and Republicans, I’ve earned the trust of a lot of people,” Frish said in an interview. “But it’s going to be a close race, without a doubt.”

He has laid out positions on border security, energy and other issues that set him apart from many in his party — though the Republicans vying to run against him question whether he could escape the larger philosophical grip of the Democratic Party.

“Adam’s running like he’s Ronald Reagan incarnated, but his party doesn’t tolerate dissent,” Andrews said. “He’s not going to be able to be nearly as conservative in Congress as he is on the campaign trail.”

Will Trump be a factor?

Widely considered the GOP frontrunner by way of his fundraising and endorsements — at least so far — is Hurd, a Mesa County native and attorney who represents electric associations. The mild-mannnered political novice entered the race last summer as an alternative to Boebert on the Republican ticket.

“I’m viewed as the guy who has the target on his back a little bit,” he said.

Hurd, 44, has raised appreciably more money than his Republican opponents and has picked up some high-profile endorsements from the likes of former Gov. Bill Owens and John Suthers, the former Colorado attorney general and Colorado Springs mayor. But he needs to do better in the money game versus Frisch, and he knows it.

Frisch took in $1.4 million in the first three months of 2024 compared to Hurd’s $241,000.

“We’re going to have a formidable and well-funded candidate to face. As Republicans, we need to take it seriously,” Hurd said. “I’m motivated to raising more money in the next quarter.”

He lists the flow of immigrants across the southern U.S. border in recent years as a “massive political failure” at the top of the issues page of his campaign website. Energy extraction, important in the 27-county 3rd District, is also a priority for Hurd. Those two issues form a nexus between Hurd and former President Donald Trump, who will be the Republican presidential nominee at the top of November’s ballot.

“His top two issues are my top two issues — securing the border and energy independence,” Hurd said.

Beyond that, Hurd is tight-lipped about the former president, declining to say even whether he voted for him in the last two elections — “I’m not focused on 2016 and 2020,” he said — or whether he will vote for Trump this fall.

“I don’t talk about who I vote for,” Hurd said.

Trump could be a volatile factor for the district’s Republican nominee, Saunders said. Colorado voters gave President Biden a more-than-13-percentage-point edge over Trump in 2020.

“So, how close can Hurd get to Trump without cost is an interesting question in this cycle,” Saunders said. “Likewise, will Frisch try to tie the Republican nominee as closely as possible to Trump in order to alienate those unaffiliated voters again?”

On the other hand, the party standard bearer at the top of the ticket could mobilize the GOP base in the 3rd Congressional District. After all, Trump won the district by more than 8 percentage points over Biden four years ago, according to calculations by the progressive political site Daily Kos that take redistricting into account.

“The problem Frisch faces is just one of numbers,” Saunders said. “He can absolutely win, but it remains an uphill climb when there are so many more Rs than Ds in the district, even with this name recognition and big-money advantage.”

Andrews said that could open a more conservative path for him.

“I fill that lane that people want,” said Andrews, who proudly declares himself the owner of 19 firearms and a strong defender of gun rights.

The 66-year-old father of three takes a hardline position on immigration, calling for finishing the border wall, implementing “national security tariffs” on goods and services from China and Mexico, changing the nation’s asylum laws so that applicants must apply from outside the country and deporting all migrants who entered the U.S. illegally since Biden’s “first day in office.”

He calls Hurd a “nice guy” but part of the Republican “old guard.”

“I’m on Team CD3”

Frisch, who has spent a dozen years in the homebuilding business and another dozen in international finance, has a mantra he likes to repeat: “I’m not on Team Blue, I’m not on Team Red — I’m on Team CD3.”

“They want to hammer that I’ll be beholden to the (Democratic) party,” he said of his political opponents. “I’m going to say what I believe and that frustrates a lot of people. I’m called a DINO (Democrat In Name Only) all the time. But my message is not changing, my work ethic is not changing, my independence is not changing.”

The border, he said, is “out of control.”

“We need to figure out how to secure the border and reduce the number of people coming here illegally,” Frisch said. “We’re a nation of immigrants but we’re also a nation of laws.”

He’s also a critic of efforts by some in his party to restrain domestic fossil fuel energy production.

But on abortion, Frisch is firmly in favor of protecting access, an issue that has hampered Republican successes at the ballot box since the U.S. Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

“It will be an important part of the conversation,” Frisch promised for the fall.

Varela, who will get top-line billing on the Republican primary ballot in June because of his dominant performance at this month’s GOP assembly, said he is a former Democrat and against abortion. Voters, he said, respect a candidate for staying true to a position even if it’s controversial.

“They don’t want the wishy-washiness,” he said.

In February, The Denver Post reported that Varela faces a federal investigation into his past management of a government employees union in southern Colorado, including improper spending; Varela called the allegations baseless.

Though Varela, 39, has only $23,000 cash on hand as of the end of March, his Latino roots and military combat experience in Iraq should resonate with voters, he said.

“People in CD3 aren’t for sale,” he said. “They want to know you’re going to represent them.”

Stay up-to-date with Colorado Politics by signing up for our weekly newsletter, The Spot.