Colorado backcountry experts warn of increasing avalanche danger and ‘real winter’ conditions this weekend

Colorado avalanche officials are warning that avalanche danger will increase this weekend as one of the first major storms in several weeks delivers fresh snow to the mountains.

Colorado Avalanche Information Center Director Ethan Greene said that snow lovers should be excited about the winter storm but shouldn’t let allure of fresh snow override careful consideration of terrain options and avalanche risk.

“We have a storm moving through that is going to bring a bunch of snow to the mountains, (which is) super exciting,” Greene said. “It’s definitely going to increase the avalanche danger statewide, but the amount of that increase is going to be really different in different places.”

Anyone heading out into the backcountry should check the avalanche forecast before leaving, carry an avalanche transceiver, probe and shovel, and travel with a partner who is carrying the same gear and is also trained to use it, according to avalanche experts.

The avalanche danger will be impacted largely by how much snow areas receive, as well as the existing snowpack conditions, Greene said. Many zones across the state could reach considerable avalanche danger, or level 3 of 5, with some places reaching high avalanche danger, level 4 of 5, he said. 

Avalanche danger has remained at low or moderate across much of the state over the past several weeks, but Greene said there have been several human-triggered avalanches during that time, including close calls where people have been caught and carried in slides. 

Last week, when parts of the state saw about 6 inches of fresh snow, there were 27 human-triggered avalanches, including five incidents where people were caught and carried, according to the CAIC.

“Even those small avalanches, like we saw last weekend, can be pretty dangerous, if they bury you in a gully or if they drag you over trees or rocks,” Greene said. “So the main thing I think we’re worried about is just how excited people could be this week, and we definitely don’t want to do anything to dampen that enthusiasm but also just want people to be smart.”

In the Elk Mountains west of Aspen and Crested Butte, the CAIC is warning that avalanche danger is expected to rapidly increase to high by Saturday. High avalanche danger means human-triggered avalanches are likely and avalanche officials recommend staying out of avalanche terrain, or terrain steeper than about 30 degrees, altogether.

Throughout much of the rest of the state, including near the Maroon Bells Wilderness Area and  the region including Summit County, Vail and the Interstate 70 corridor could see avalanche danger reach considerable avalanche danger, which means conditions are dangerous and changing, and people can trigger avalanches on many slopes.

In general, southerly slopes, slopes at lower elevations and low angle slopes will be the safest this weekend, Greene said, adding that it is important for  backcountry travelers to familiarize themselves with forecasts for their specific region.

As is often the case in Colorado, persistent slab avalanches are listed in the forecast as the primary avalanche concern throughout much of the state. Persistent slab avalanches are difficult to predict and can be triggered remotely, or from a distance, including from flat ground below steeper terrain, according to the CAIC. Persistent slab avalanches are caused by a cohesive slab of heavier snow overlaying a persistent weak layer, or a structurally fragile layer of snow, that can remain for weeks or months.

Wind slab avalanche problems, which occur when wind deposits snow on downwind slopes, forming a dense, cohesive layer over a weaker layer of snow, could also develop in places over the weekend, especially Sunday, as winds pick up, according to the CAIC.

With stormy weather and temperatures that could drop below zero this weekend, Greene noted that this will be one of the more wintry storms of the season, so being prepared for the conditions will be extra important.

“It’s been kind of a frustrating winter for snow lovers and this is going to be kind of a real winter this weekend,” Greene said. “So snow lovers should do their thing, get out there in the snow, but making that transition is sometimes hard.”

To check the avalanche forecast visit Colorado.gov/avalanche.