Can Colorado make CFP? How Iowa State, Kansas State losses open door for Buffaloes

Colorado football may have been idle this week, but Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes picked up two big wins for their postseason playoff picture.

With Texas Tech and Houston pulling off upsets against No. 10 Iowa State and No. 15 Kansas State, respectively, there is a legit path for Colorado to make not only the Big 12 championship game, but also the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. The losses for the Cyclones and Wildcats move Colorado into a tie for second place at 4-1 in the Big 12 Conference with ISU.

The Buffaloes, who became ranked in the AP Top 25 poll last week, are currently in the midst of their best season since 2019 when they finished with five wins. Last week, Colorado became bowl-eligible for the first time under Sanders.

Here’s the path that is now presented for Colorado to make the College Football Playoff as Iowa State and Kansas State both lost in Week 10:

REQUIRED EADING: Travis Hunter discusses two-way play, Heisman Trophy chances on ESPN’s ‘College GameDay’

Can Colorado make College Football Playoff?

Yes. Barring any drastic falloff for the Buffaloes in their final four games, Colorado has a path to make the College Football Playoff — likely through the Big 12 championship game.

A big reason for Sanders’ squad playing in the CFP has to do with the expansion of the field from four teams to 12 teams this year. The expansion also comes with an automatic bid and first-round bye for the four highest-ranked conference champions, which almost certainly will include the Big 12 Conference.

But for the Buffaloes to make the playoff, they would not only have to win out in the regular season, but also, most likely, need to win the Big 12 championship. ESPN’s Football Power Index had Colorado with an 8.8% chance of winning the Big 12 entering Saturday.

Looking at Colorado’s remaining schedule — which includes contests against Texas Tech, Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State — winning out the regular season seems like a reasonable feat. Of the four teams that the Buffaloes will face to end the season, three of them are at the bottom of the Big 12 standings.

Additionally, if Colorado wins out, the Buffaloes’ odds of finishing as a top-two team in the conference can be also helped from the outside. If Iowa State loses to Kansas State during Rivalry Week on Nov. 30, Colorado would be in the Big 12 championship game.

ESPN Analytics currently has Colorado winning each of its final four games, which would mark the first time the Buffaloes would finish the regular season with 10 wins since 2016. But if this season of college football has shown anything, you can’t rely on win-loss probability analytics.

All told, get the popcorn ready for a potential fun playoff push over the next four weeks for Colorado and Coach Prime.

Big 12 football tiebreakers

The Big 12 announced in September that if two teams are tied in the conference standings, the following tiebreakers will be used until a determination is made on who makes the Big 12 championship game:

• A — The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record during the season.
• B — The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against all common conference opponents.
• C — The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference) proceeding through the standings.
• D — The tied teams will be compared based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents.
• E — The tied teams will be compared based on total number of wins in a 12-game season.
• F — The representative will be chosen based on highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
• G — The representative will be chosen by a coin toss.

Big 12 football standings

Here’s a look at the Big 12 football standings as of Saturday, Nov. 2 at 7:30 p.m. MT:

Records listed indicate Big 12 play

• 1. BYU: 5-1
• T-2. Iowa State: 4-1
• T-2. Colorado: 4-1
• T-4. Kansas State: 4-2
• T-4. Texas Tech: 4-2
• T-6. Arizona State: 3-2
• T-6. Cincinnati: 3-2
• T-6. TCU: 3-2
• T-6. West Virginia: 3-2
• T-10: Houston: 3-3
• 11. Baylor: 2-3
• 12. UCF: 2-4
• T-13. Utah: 1-4
• T-13. Kansas: 1-4
• 15. Arizona: 1-5
• 16. Oklahoma State: 0-6

Colorado football schedule 2024

Here’s a look at Colorado’s football schedule in 2024:

• Thursday, Aug. 29: vs. North Dakota State (W, 31-26)
• Saturday, Sept. 7: at Nebraska (L, 28-10)
• Saturday, Sept. 14: at Colorado State (W, 28-9)
• Saturday, Sept. 21: vs. Baylor* (W, 38-31, OT)
• Saturday, Sept. 28: at UCF* (W, 48-21)
• Saturday, Oct. 5: BYE
• Saturday, Oct. 12: vs. No. 20 Kansas State* (L, 31-28)
• Saturday, Oct. 19: at Arizona* (W, 34-7)
• Saturday, Oct. 26: vs. Cincinnati* (W, 34-23)
• Saturday, Nov. 2: BYE
• Saturday, Nov. 9: at Texas Tech*
• Saturday, Nov. 16: vs. Utah*
• Saturday, Nov. 23: at Kansas*
• Friday, Nov. 29: vs. Oklahoma State*

* Denotes Big 12 game