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'Path to 218 runs through California': State races pivotal in fight to control the House

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'Path to 218 runs through California': State races pivotal in fight to control the House


(Jim Cooke / Los Angeles Times)

Barring divine intervention or the West Coast falling into the sea, President Biden will handily win California in the November election.

But should he — or presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump — secure a second term in the fall, the future of either’s policy agenda rests heavily on which party controls Congress, where Republicans currently hold a wafer-thin majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

With the Golden State home to some of the most hotly contested swing districts in the country, the House’s fate will almost certainly come down to California.

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The battle for the next two years of partisan political control will be waged door-to-door, from California’s beachside suburban cul-de-sacs to the tiny farm towns in the state’s fertile Central Valley.

Those battlefields will look a lot like Bridgecreek Plaza — a sun-bleached shopping center a few hundred yards from a freeway onramp in Orange County’s Huntington Beach. The mall is home to a crystal store, several insurance brokers, a dentist and the local Republican Party headquarters.

It’s also where about two dozen GOP faithful gathered on the morning of election day, bowing their heads for a quick prayer and pledging allegiance to a portable flag before turning their attention to Jessica Millan Patterson, chair of the California Republican Party.

Patterson was in a very good mood.

When she was first elected to lead the party, in 2019, California Republicans were “essentially the third-largest party in the state,” having sunk below the share of voters registering “decline to state” under party preference.

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But Patterson had presided over a massive voter registration drive over the last five years, and the party had moved back into second. People across the country liked to dismiss “blue California,” she said, but they were forgetting that California has more registered Republicans than any other state.

“California Republicans are the reasons why we have a House majority,” she added, to raucous cheering.

That majority was what they hoped to hold on to, and the group would spend the morning of the March 5 primary election canvassing for Scott Baugh, a Republican attorney and former state Assembly member vying to push Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s soon-to-be-open congressional seat back from blue to red.

Scott Baugh, in a red-and-white plaid shirt and white baseball cap, holding a mic as he speaks in front of campaign postersScott Baugh, in a red-and-white plaid shirt and white baseball cap, holding a mic as he speaks in front of campaign posters

Scott Baugh is trying again to flip Orange County’s 47th District back to the red column. The seat is a chief target of state and national Republican efforts to maintain control of the House. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

The latest round of redistricting put more conservative enclaves such as Huntington Beach and Newport Beach into California’s 47th Congressional District, and Baugh lost to Porter only narrowly in 2022 despite being vastly outspent, making the coastal Orange County district one of the most competitive in the nation.

The charismatic Porter will be out of the House picture after a failed Senate run; her seat is one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s three offensive targets in California and top priorities. And it’s equally prized by Democrats.

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Read more:How Trump propelled Schiff to the general election — and likely a Senate seat

In a country where enmity and distrust separate the two major political parties on most issues, California’s utmost importance to any November House strategy is one of the few things on which Republicans and Democrats can agree.

California is home to 10 races rated as competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report — five of them in districts that are represented by Republicans but that President Biden won in 2020. In the months to come, both parties will beinvesting significant resources in those races, as national attention inevitably turns west.

With an expected Biden-Trump rematch, voter turnout in 2024 is also likely to be supercharged compared with the 2022 midterm election. That could give an edge to Democrats, given the registration advantage that they hold in many of the competitive districts. Republicans gained one California House seat in the 2022 midterms, a nonpresidential election when turnout was substantially lower than when Biden and Trump topped the ballot two years prior.

“At the end of the day, the path to 218 runs through California,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Dan Gottlieb, referring to the number of seats needed to garner a House majority.

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Dave Min, seen from the shoulders up in a blue suit jacket, looking up to his left against a backdrop of dark-wood columnsDave Min, seen from the shoulders up in a blue suit jacket, looking up to his left against a backdrop of dark-wood columns

Dave Min will face Baugh in November’s runoff for the 47th District seat, which Katie Porter is vacating. Min’s bruising primary battle for the crucial seat has already cost Democrats millions. (Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press)

Gottlieb was bullish on his party’s chances, citing the high turnout expected for the presidential election, along with strong Democratic candidates and “a bunch of dysfunctional and out-of-touch Republicans enabling the worst of their party’s chaos and dysfunction and extremism.”

But Gottlieb’s GOP counterpart was equally roseate in his outlook, with National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Ben Petersen reveling in the ugly and expensive primary fights that consumed Democrats in several of the state’s most crucial swing districts.

In the O.C. district where GOP volunteers fanned out for Baugh on primary morning, Democrats had sunk millions into a bruising primary battle between state Sen. Dave Min and fellow Democrat Joanna Weiss. Min ultimately emerged victorious, but only after surviving a barrage of negative advertising centered on his 2023 arrest for driving while intoxicated — arguably a gift to Republicans ahead of his fall battle with Baugh.

Read more:Two Democrats battle to keep Katie Porter’s Orange County U.S. House seat blue

“Extreme Democrats are stumbling out of their vicious primary fights broke and bested by Republicans, who saw a groundswell of support for a commonsense safety and affordability agenda,” Petersen said, adding that the primary results made clear the GOP was “playing offense in California” in a way that would set the stage for victories in November.

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Baugh, though, is not expected to go unscathed. In 2022, Porter’s ad campaign ripped the Republican for his antiabortion stance, as well as his work as a lobbyist and criminal charges he faced over campaign violations, for which he ultimately paid $47,000 in fines.

In the San Joaquin Valley, there were last-minute fears that a bruising primary battle would lock Democrats out of one of the races where they have the best chance of flipping a seat, but those concerns proved overblown.

Rudy Salas, backed by the Democratic establishment, vanquished fellow Democrat Melissa Hurtado to secure a spot in the fall against incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) in the 22nd Congressional District, but that race also put a dent in Democratic coffers.

The November race will be a rematch of the pair’s 2022 runoff, when Salas lost to Valadao by several thousand votes. And Salas and Valadao won’t be the only rematch on the November ticket.

In a heavily agricultural San Joaquin Valley district that includes all of Merced County and parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties, incumbent GOP Rep. John Duarte will once again face off against Democratic challenger Adam Gray. Duarte won the 13th Congressional District in the midterm election by fewer than 600 votes, one of the closest races in the nation.

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Several hundred miles southeast, in Southern California, Democratic challenger Will Rollins will again take on GOP incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving member of the California delegation. The recently redrawn 41st Congressional District stretches from the suburban Inland Empire, where Calvert has long lived, to Palm Springs, where Rollins and his partner make their home.

Read more:LGBTQ+ culture wars surface in heated Riverside County congressional race

The district’s new boundaries — which now include one of the largest concentrations of LGBTQ+ voters in the nation and liberal pockets of Californians in the desert — are far more friendly to Democrats. They also set up Rollins, who is gay, as a potent challenger to Calvert, who voted against LGBTQ+ rights in the past, but who says his views have since evolved.

One race that will have some new blood this year, after the same pair of candidates dueled in three previous elections, is California’s 27th Congressional District in northern Los Angeles County.

Once solidly Republican, the district has been reconfigured by redistricting, and has undergone a political transition driven by younger, more diverse transplants from L.A. seeking affordable housing in Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley. The district briefly switched from red to blue with former Rep. Katie Hill’s victory in 2018, but the young Democrat’s very public scandals and ultimate resignation helped hand the seat back to the GOP.

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Now-incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Garcia beat Democrat Christy Smith in a 2019 special election to fill the seat, then twice more for full terms in 2020 and 2022. He will face off against George Whitesides, a fresh Democratic challenger, in November.

Ludovic Blain, executive director of the California Donor Table, a progressive group that pools donor funds, said his organization hopes to invest about $10million in California House races in the fall, working with local nonprofits in key areas to turn out voters of color.

They’ll be focusing on seven key races: the three aforementioned rematches, Porter’s open seat and two other Orange County races, and the Garcia-Whitesides matchup.

One point of concern Blain raised is that Republican Steve Garvey’s place near the top of the ticket, facing off against Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank) in the Senate race, might affect Democrats in House races.

Schiff engaged in a controversial strategy in the primary, boosting Garvey to lock out Porter and his other major Democratic challenger, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), whom Blain’s organization supported.

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It was a gambit that some in the Democratic establishment said would actually help Democrats in other tight races, since a less-competitive Senate race would siphon away far less money from the party’s coffers.

Read more:Steve Garvey touts ‘family values’ in his Senate bid. Some of his kids tell another story

But others, like Blain, argue that Garvey’s presence could hurt down-ballot Democrats. Plus, having him on the ballot may draw in moderate Republican and independent voters who remain sour on Trump.

“Having Garvey, I think, does spike or further encourage Republican voters to turn out, and more importantly, to vote down the ticket,” Blain said.

Patterson agreed. Unlike Trump, Garvey will likely campaign across the state, providing a lift for other Republicans while he’s at it.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.



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California

How California’s high-speed rail line will advance in 2025

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How California’s high-speed rail line will advance in 2025


California’s high-speed rail project, which aims to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles with a 494-mile route capable of speeds up to 220 mph, aims to continue construction in 2025.

Phase 1 of the project focuses on linking San Francisco in the north to Anaheim via Los Angeles in the south, with plans to extend the line north to Sacramento and south to San Diego in Phase 2.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority, which is overseeing the project says it has already generated significant economic benefits, including creating over 14,000 construction jobs and involving 875 small businesses.

But despite its transformative goals, the project remains politically contentious, with critics questioning its costs and viability. It has been in development since voters approved funding in 2008 and has faced delays, cost increases, and shifting timelines.

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Composite image of trains and the California state flag. The state’s high-speed rail project will continue construction in 2025, despite Republican critics questioning its costs and viability.

Photo Illustration by Newsweek

Work Planned for 2025

In a statement to Newsweek, the California High-Speed Rail Authority outlined its planned work for 2025, which focuses on continuing construction in the Central Valley between Merced and Bakersfield.

The 171-mile segment between Merced and Bakersfield will be the first part of the line to be operational, with services expected to start between 2030 and 2033. Of that section, 119 miles are currently under construction.

Of the planned structures in the Central Valley section, 85 are underway or completed out a total of 93 on the segment. Work will continue on these structures as well as on the tracks capable of handling high-speed trains.

By the end of 2025, civil construction on the 119-mile segment currently underway is expected to be completed and construction will begin on the next stretches to Merced and Bakersfield.

In 2025, the authority also plans to advance design and begin construction on its stations in the Central Valley. It also expects to select a manufacturer for the trains.

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Although the initial operating segment will only run 171 miles from Merced to Bakersfield, environmental clearances have been obtained for 463 miles of the 494-mile Phase 1 route, completing the stretch between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Only the Los Angeles-to-Anaheim section is still awaiting approval.

California High Speed Rail Map
A map showing California’s proposed high-speed rail network from February 2021. The initial operating segment, between Merced and Bakersfield, is expected to begin services between 2030 and 2033.

California High Speed Rail Authority

The Authority said it plans to publish its draft environmental impact report for the Los Angeles-to-Anaheim section in 2025, a key milestone for the eventual full-approval of Phase 1.

More than $11 billion has been invested to date, with funding sources including state bonds, federal grants, and proceeds from California’s carbon emission trading auctions.

The authority has not yet received funding to construct the segments westwards from the Central Valley to the Bay Area or southwards to Los Angeles.

Despite this, the authority said it was committed to pushing on.

“California is the first in the nation to build a true high-speed rail system with speeds capable of reaching 220 mph,” the Authority told Newsweek. “The Authority remains committed and aggressive in moving this historic project forward while actively pursuing additional funding.”

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Political Opposition to the Project

Despite ongoing progress, the high-speed rail project continues to face political opposition, particularly from Republican leaders.

While President Joe Biden’s administration has invested billions in it since 2021, the incoming Republican administration, which will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the presidency, is unlikely to continue funding it at the same level.

Representative Sam Graves of Missouri, who chairs the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, has criticized the project’s costs and funding strategies.

In a statement to Newsweek, Graves described the rail line as a “highly troubled project” and raised concerns about its reliance on government subsidies.

California High Speed Rail Rendering
A rendering of one of the trains for California’s proposed high-speed rail project, which is currently under construction.

California High Speed Rail Authority

He pointed out that the current funding supports only a limited segment between Merced and Bakersfield, which he estimated will cost $35 billion.

“Full cost estimates [for Phase 1, between San Francisco and Anaheim] now exceed $100 billion and growing,” Graves said, calling for a comprehensive review of the project before any additional funding is allocated.

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“California high-speed rail must have a plan and prove that it can wisely and responsibly spend government money—something it’s failed to do so far.”

The congressman stated that over the next four years, he would oppose any further federal funding for the California high-speed rail project.

Instead, Graves advocated for efforts to redirect unspent funds and focus on improving existing transportation infrastructure, such as Amtrak.

Graves also emphasized the need for private-sector involvement in future rail projects, citing Brightline’s operations in Florida and Las Vegas as a successful example of private investment.

While Graves acknowledged the potential of high-speed rail, he argued that the California project has failed to meet the necessary criteria for viability and local demand.

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The authority told Newsweek it would engage with the federal government to seek other funding sources.

“We continue to explore strategies aimed at stabilizing funding, potentially allowing the program to draw private financing and/or government loans,” it said.



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Hawaii resident flies to California to clear name from identity theft

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Hawaii resident flies to California to clear name from identity theft


HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – A Honolulu man who had his identity stolen had to fly to California to clear his name. He acted quickly to stop his bank account from being completely drained.

Jamie Dahl said he’s speaking out because identity theft can happen to anyone and he’s not sure how his personal information was stolen.

“I’m still mystified how he pulled it off,” Dahl said.

In late November, Dahl found some fraudulent charges on his credit card so he ordered a replacement card.

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Two weeks later, he says went to his online bank account with Bank of America and discovered his identity had been stolen. The hacker had account access for instant money transfers.

“My phone number is missing, my email is missing, my mailing address. I live in Honolulu. It’s Mililani,” Dahl said.

He knew he was in trouble.

Dahl said two days after his discovered his identity had been stolen, he had to fly to California to clear his name because there are no Bank of America branches in Hawaii.

He brought several forms of ID to re-authenticate himself.

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“It was just an incredible ordeal,” he said.

“The bad guys are shopping just like everybody else for Christmas,” said former HPD Deputy Chief John McCarthy, who investigated cybercrime.

McCarthy says check your bank account daily and having a local bank is helpful.

“If you don’t have a local bank, you are that much father away. I’ve had problems with banks that are on the East Coast,” he said.

“It takes a day to communicate with them, a day to get a response. That’s a lot of damage you can do in 24, 48, 72 hours,” McCarthy added.

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McCarthy says most banks have streamlined their re-authentification process so you don’t have to see them in person.

Hawaii News Now contacted Bank of America to find out their process and are waiting to hear back.



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California high surf and flood warnings continue after pier collapse

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California high surf and flood warnings continue after pier collapse


What’s New

California’s coastal residents are facing dangerous conditions this Christmas Eve as high surf and flood warnings continue after heavy waves caused a pier to collapse on Monday.

Why It Matters

Portions of the Pacific coast are currently under hazardous seas warnings, high surf warnings and coastal flood warnings as it is shaping up to deliver some of the most severe surf conditions of the winter season, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Portland.

The NWS issued a high surf warning, with waves reaching up to 35 feet, which can pose significant risks to both property and lives.

“Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches,” the agency warned in a Christmas Eve bulletin.

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The alert remains in effect until Tuesday evening, prompting evacuations and heightened vigilance in several coastal communities.

What To Know

The NWS warnings come after a municipal wharf in Santa Cruz that was under renovation succumbed to a storm’s force. Around 150 feet of the structure collapsed into the Pacific, pulling three engineers inspecting the site into the water. All three individuals survived with two rescued by lifeguards and one swimming to safety.

A building floats in the ocean after a wharf partially on December 23, 2024, in Santa Cruz, California. This Christmas Eve, California’s coastal residents are facing dangerous conditions as high surf and flood warnings continue.

Shmuel Thaler/The Santa Cruz Sentinel/ AP

Santa Cruz Mayor Fred Keeley said that section of the pier had been damaged over time, and the structure was in the middle of a $4 million renovation following destructive storms last winter.

Tony Elliot, Santa Cruz Parks & Recreation Department head, confirmed that the severed portion of the wharf, which included restrooms and a closed restaurant, drifted nearly half a mile before settling in the San Lorenzo River.

In response, coastal towns including Santa Cruz have evacuated vulnerable homes and hotels as the state braces for more damage.

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What People Are Saying

Keeley said Monday: “We are anticipating that what is coming toward us is more serious than what was there this morning.”

The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office said in a post on X (formerly Twitter): “You are risking your life, and those of the people that would need to try and save you by getting in or too close to the water.”

The NWS office in Portland, Oregon, said in a post on X:“It will likely go down as some of the highest surf this winter.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s press office posted to X on Monday afternoon, saying that he is aware of the situation with the pier.

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“@CAGovernorNewsom has been briefed on a previously damaged section of the Santa Cruz pier that broke off due to heavy surf. @Cal_OES is coordinating with local officials and is ready to provide support,” Newsom’s press office wrote. “Residents and visitors should avoid the area and follow local guidance.”

What Happens Next

As California residents grapple with these dangerous conditions, meteorologists warn that the storm’s high surf may be the most intense of the season.

With more severe weather expected, officials are urging the public to heed warnings and avoid risky coastal areas.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.

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