How Trump has an edge in California GOP primary after state rule change

The California GOP altered its rules for allocating delegates in the state’s presidential primary, a move that could give former President Donald Trump a significant edge over his opponents in the 2024 election.

Trump is the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination. RealClearPolitics puts the former president at an average of 52.4%, an almost 40-point margin ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Trump is close to 50% ahead of candidates like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), among others.

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In California, a predominately Democratic state, the Republican Party has looked to secure a tighter red stronghold, aiming to flip Congressional seats and elect a viable GOP candidate for the presidency.

Now, with the GOP changing its delegate rules, California Republicans could be opening the door for Trump and potentially discouraging other GOP primary candidates from campaigning in the state.

What is the new GOP delegate rule?

On Saturday, the California Republican Party’s 100-member executive committee changed the way delegates are allocated in a 52-16 vote.

Now, if a Republican candidate wins over 50% of the vote in the primary on March 5, they will receive all 169 delegates from the state — more delegates than any state in the nation.

If no one reaches this threshold, then the delegates will be split up among candidates proportional to the statewide vote.

State GOP leaders argue this will attract candidates to compete in California.

“Today’s vote … was a massive victory for California Republicans who are eager to have a say in deciding who our Party’s 2024 presidential nominee will be,” state party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement via Los Angeles Times. “Republican presidential candidates will not only be encouraged to spend real time campaigning in our state and making their case to voters, but Republican voters will equally be encouraged to turn out to support their chosen candidate to help them win delegates.”

If the GOP did not change the rules, the party would have lost half of its delegates to the Republican National Convention for not meeting delegate criteria.

Many state Republican parties had made similar changes to their primary rules ahead of the 2020 election, adding more winner-take-all contests and requiring a higher percentage of the vote to win delegates.

Why are some Republicans against this rule change?

The original system, which has been in place for two decades, allocated three delegates for each congressional district won. The system allowed a candidate to strategically campaign in a handful of areas in California instead of targeting the entire state.

Former state GOP executive director Jon Fleischman, who served in 2000 when the original system was adopted, said in an interview with the LA Times that the new rule would prevent this type of competition among candidates.

Fleischman said no GOP presidential candidate would be incentivized to come to California and campaign.

“The cost to advertise statewide is too great, and the impact of trying to motivate volunteers is too small,” Fleischman said. “So they will go to other states and ignore California in the primary, as they ignore California in the general election.”

Some Republican protesters have argued the decision should have been discussed with the over 1,400 party members at the fall convention, not just the executive committee. State GOP officials said that they were on a deadline to submit their new rules to the RNC to maintain the allotment of delegates.

Where do the top candidates stand on this rule change?

Trump’s team is in full support of the California GOP’s rule change while DeSantis’s team has blasted the state’s Republicans for ignoring voters who want a different GOP candidate in the 2024 general election.

An executive committee member told the Los Angeles Times that they spoke to Trump’s campaign and they supported the rule change, saying polling shows he can win more than 50% of primary voters in California.

Ken Cuccinelli, founder of the pro-DeSantis Never Back Down super PAC, blasted the state GOP’s decision to ignore a different proposal that could have favored the Florida governor.

Under that proposal, three delegates would have been awarded by congressional district, with two going to the winner in each district and the third going to the second-place finisher. With DeSantis maintaining a steady runner-up status in most polls, this method would have likely benefited him come primary time in March.

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“Smoke-filled back rooms do not reflect the will of or benefit voters in any state. Yet across the country, games are afoot to enhance the potential outcome of primary elections for one former president who half of the Republican electorate no longer wants as the party leader,” Cuccinelli said in a statement.

But “even with these asinine primary rules changes,” Cuccinelli added, “we remain confident Governor DeSantis will become the Republican nominee and 47th president of the United States.”