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Garnet Blows Up, and Making California Forestry More Wildfire Resilient. – The Lookout

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Garnet Blows Up, and Making California Forestry More Wildfire Resilient. – The Lookout


The Garnet Fire has gobbled about 20 square miles in the past 12 hours. We’ll catch you up on where this new growth is happening.

Also, a meandering conversation about the complicated world of California forestry, and the many economic obstacles of pivoting the industry to more wildfire resilient practices.

Lookout Livestream

AI Summary, edited by Zeke.

The Garnet fire in Fresno expanded by 20 square miles, crossing Dinkey Creek and threatening McKinley Grove. The fire is being driven by extreme fuel loading, inaccessible terrain, and long-range spotting. The fire’s intensity is attributed to the lack of recent fire history, and heavy drought-induced tree mortality, which has left extremely loading of dead and down fuels. The fire’s progression was monitored via Delilah and Fence Meadow cameras, and by IR mapping of the fire from the night of 9/6, an IR satelliteimage taken at noon on 9/7, and IR flights at 13:30 and 16:30 on 9/7.

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The discussion also covered the broader implications of fire management, including the role of private timberland owners, the impact of climate change, and the challenges of prescribed fire implementation. The conversation highlighted the need for comprehensive forest management strategies that are focused on what the fuels look like after the logging is complete. Zeke Lunder discusses the complexities of forestry and biomass energy, highlighting the economic challenges of financing new power plants, and the need for long-term sources of fuels to keep the plants running over the life of the investment in the plant. He notes that biomass power plants don’t pencil out without subsidies being paid to the operators. Lunder emphasizes the need for sustainable logging practices to manage fuel loads and reduce fire hazards. He mentions the historical role of logging in creating today’s overstocked forests, and how the removal of the largest trees has created more fire-prone forest structures. Lunder also highlights the need for community involvement in forest management and advocates for better education on sustainable practices. He promotes his website for more in-depth discussions on forest management and ecology.

Garnet Fire Overview and Initial Discussion

  • Zeke Lunder introduces the Lookout Sunday edition, focusing on the Garnet Fire in Fresno.
  • The Garnet fire has significantly increased in size, adding about 20 square miles today.
  • Zeke discusses the geography of the central and southern Sierra, including the Kings River and Dinkey Creek.
  • The fire has been active near Dinky Creek, with significant burning observed from the Delilah camera.

Fire Operations and Geographic Context

  • Zeke explains the firing operations along the road and the north end of the fire.
  • The current fire spread is aided by long-range spotting. The biggest obstacle to containment of the fire is the lack of access.
  • The fire has made a significant run into the area below McKinley Grove.

Fire Behavior and Contingency Lines

  • The fire crossed Dinkey Creek and a large area has burned burn up the slope towards and around Oak Flat campground.
  • The fire has been dramatic to watch on the Fence Meadow camera, with significant burning observed.
  • A contingency line has been built to try to hold the fire, with infrared flights showing the fire hasn’t crossed it in a big way.
  • The fire is likely to burn all the way to Camp Fresno, with no significant structures in the immediate area.

Private Industry and Fire Management

  • Zeke discusses the role of private industry in managing forests and the challenges they face.
  • The timber industry has been doing significant work in salvage logging and replanting after large fires in the past 15 years.
  • The industry is facing challenges in managing forests due to the impact of climate change and their inability to use fire as a management tool.
  • The industry is receiving more grant money to do fuel breaks and replanting in recently burned areas.

Historical Context and Legal Challenges

  • The Moonlight Fire in 2007 led to significant legal wrangling between Sierra Pacific Industries and Federal government.
  • The fire started on private land and burned federal land, leading to a $100 million fine for Sierra Pacific Industries.
  • The legal precedent has made private timber companies hesitant to burn on their land.
  • The industry has been largely-focused on cutting dead trees killed by the fires of the past decade, leaving limited capacity to actively manage unburned lands, especially on smaller landholdings.

Prioritizing Suppression over Land Management

Zeke argues that firefighting receives far more resources, flexibility, and funding compared to hazard mitigation. Specifically, he points out:

  1. Suppression Budget
  • Firefighting never has to justify its budget during an active incident
  • Agencies spend massive amounts (like $5 million in retardant in a single day on a large fire)
  • No environmental documentation required for emergency actions – bulldozers can do whatever they want.
  1. Regulatory Constraints on Mitigation
  • Prescribed fire and forest thinning require:- Years of studies and environmental surveys – Extensive rare plant reviews – Strict regulatory hurdles
  1. Resource Allocation
  • During wildfires, agencies get:- Unlimited resources – Flexible regulations – Catering – Full contractor support
  1. Mitigation Challenges
  • Prescribed fire and thinning face significant bureaucratic obstacles
  • Limited funding and regulatory support
  • Difficult to implement large-scale projects

His key argument is: “Until we give prescribed fire and fuels management the same leeway, environmentally, budget-wise, and resources as suppression, we’re just talking.” Zeke suggests agencies should “take off the gloves” and apply the same aggressive, well-resourced approach to forest management that they use during firefighting.

Future of Fire Management and Prescribed Fire

  • Zeke discusses the need for prescribed fire and thinning to manage forests, he posits that one of the only good reasons to do large fuel breaks in remote areas is to be able to burn the lands adjacent to them.

On ‘Environmentalism’

Zeke strongly criticizes national environmental groups like Sierra Club and Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) for their simplistic approach to forest policy. He argues they:

  1. Pander to donors with oversimplified messaging like “logging is bad”
  2. Lack understanding of regional forest management nuances
  3. Want sound-bite management strategies
  4. Aim to stop commercial timber sales without considering local complexities
  5. Equate logging with tropical deforestation, and little else
  6. Are not interested in nuanced forest management solutions

He specifically advises people to stop donating to these national groups and instead support local organizations like prescribed burn associations that understand local forest management needs.

Biomass Power Plants and Carbon Emissions

According to Zeke, national environmental groups like NRDC oppose biomass thinning primarily because they argue it’s not carbon neutral, and contributes to global warming. Zeke disagrees with this stance, suggesting that biomass harvesting can actually help preserve healthy forests by creating economic incentives for thinning and removing sub-merchantable wood that could fuel wildfires.
He criticizes these groups for taking a blanket position against biomass without considering the potential forest management benefits, especially in areas which are exposed to extreme fire hazards that still have green forests.

  • Zeke Lunder discusses the survival of certain plants post-Dixie and the need for a comprehensive plan.
  • He mentions the environmental impact of biomass power plants, which emit carbon dioxide.
  • Zeke highlights the economic challenges of building and maintaining biomass power plants.
  • The discussion includes the reliance on sub-merchantable wood and the impact of natural disasters like the Dixie fire on biomass plant operations.

Economic Feasibility of Biomass Plants

  • Zeke explains that large biomass-energy plants in California were initially subsidized by utilities to make them economically viable.
  • He emphasizes the high costs of moving and processing wood for biomass plants.
  • The conversation touches on the need for subsidies to support biomass energy production.
  • Zeke mentions the role of local plants in creating local power and reducing the need for high-voltage transmission lines.

Zeke highlights several key economic constraints for building biomass power plants:

  1. High Initial Cost
  • Costs $50-200 million to build a biomass plant
  • Requires long-term investment (40-50 years)
  1. Fuel Supply Challenges
  • Requires consistent supply of sub-merchantable wood
  • Fires or forest destruction can disrupt local wood supply
  • May require expensive wood transportation from distant areas
  1. Lack of Economic Viability
  • Without government subsidies, plants are not financially sustainable
  • Cost of moving, chipping, and hauling wood is prohibitively expensive
  • Utilities need financial incentives to purchase biomass-generated energy
  1. Market Uncertainty
  • Climate change and mega fires create unpredictability in wood supply
  • Investors are hesitant to commit to long-term infrastructure with uncertain future forest conditions
  1. Operational Risks
  • A major fire destroying local forests can quickly make a biomass plant’s wood supply unsustainable
  • High operational costs compared to traditional energy generation

Zeke suggests that without consistent government subsidies and a stable wood supply, biomass power plants are economically challenging to develop and maintain.

Logging and Fire Management

  • Zeke Lunder discusses the historical role of logging in reducing fire hazards.
  • He explains the impact of climate change and fire suppression on modern fire risks on lands which were heavily logged in the 20th century.
  • The conversation includes the need for sustainable logging practices to manage fuel loads.
  • Zeke highlights the high costs of cleaning up slash and the reluctance of timber companies to invest in this process.

Community Involvement in Forest Management

  • Zeke suggests encouraging public participation in forest management through activities like cutting small trees around campgrounds.
  • He discusses the potential for community members to manage small-scale forest thinning.
  • The conversation includes the need for basic knowledge and guidelines for public forest management.
  • Zeke emphasizes the importance of active forest management to prevent fire hazards.
  • Zeke suggests bringing back the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) or similar programs for forest management.

Promoting Forest Management Knowledge

  • Zeke encourages people to visit the Lookout website for more information on forest management.
  • He highlights the various topics covered on the website, including forest ecology and management history.
  • The conversation includes a call for subscribers to support the Lookout’s work.
  • Zeke mentions upcoming interviews and projects focused on forest management and ecology.

 



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California

California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues

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California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues


California’s crowded, protracted gubernatorial primary is going to take a little more time to settle.

The race remained too early to call Wednesday morning with 50% of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News’ Decision Desk. Three main candidates — former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, and two Democrats, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire activist Tom Steyer — are competing for two spots in the general election, with the candidate in fourth place, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, running well behind.

Hilton had 27% support in the all-party primary with about half of votes still left to count, while Becerra had 26% and Steyer had 20%. Bianco was the only other candidate in double digits, at 11%.

In California, all candidates run on the same primary ballot in the primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election.

It’s difficult to say when it will be clear which two candidates advance to the November general election, however, due to the state’s protracted vote counting.

And with millions of ballots left to count, other key races in California remain uncalled as well, including the second runoff spot to face Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass one on one in November, several House races that could help determine the majority next year, and more.

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In the governor’s race, all three candidates rallied supporters around the state as the evening drew on.

“We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good,” Hilton told allies. “It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction, a fresh start for our state, which is long overdue.”

But while Hilton was narrowly in first place when he spoke, Democratic candidates were capturing the majority of the votes.

Becerra looked back at his own “underdog story,” from his immigrant relatives to his bid for governor, which took some time to catch fire.

“Almost immediately, he’s counted out, an afterthought, overlooked by many, outspent by a ton, even called along the way to drop out and save us the trouble,” Becerra recounted to his supporters. “Well, guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up.”

Steyer struck a hopeful note in his election night speech despite a deficit in the vote count.

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“It might take some time to figure out where this is going, we’re going to wait till every ballot is counted, we’re going to give democracy a time to work, and we know we finished really strong,” Steyer said.

Major battleground districts

GOP Rep. David Valadao’s district has been one of Democrats’ top targets for years, but two Democrats are locked in a close race for the second spot in the November general election against the incumbent.

School board member Randy Villegas, who won support from national progressives, has a slight lead over state legislator Jasmeet Bains, 30% to 26%, with less than half of the expected vote tallied in the 22nd District. Valadao is comfortably in first place.

And in Northern California’s 6th District, Rep. Kevin Kiley — who was elected as a Republican and switched to become an independent this election cycle, as he runs in another newly redrawn district — is bunched up in a tight race that includes Democrat Richard Pan, a former state legislator, and Republican Michael Stansfield. Currently, Stansfield is running ahead of Pan; they spent much of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning trading the lead, which could have significant general election implications.

Meanwhile, outside California, Democrats think they might be able to challenge for one of Montana’s red-tinted congressional districts this fall, after Rep. Ryan Zinke decided to retire. But less than 2 percentage points separate Democrats Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse with more than 85% of the expected vote tallied in their primary in Montana’s 1st District.

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Read more about Tuesday’s House primaries here.

A safe seat battle to watch

Plenty of other House districts in California — and a few elsewhere — still have unsettled primaries, but one attracted particular attention due to how nasty the campaign got.

In Southern California, where two Republican incumbents are facing off in one district due to redistricting, Rep. Ken Calvert has advanced to the general election, but Rep. Young Kim is still battling for the second spot. She leads Democrat Esther Kim-Varet in the race for second, 22% to 16%, with about half of the vote in.

Who will face Bass in Los Angeles?

While Bass is projected to advance to a November runoff in Los Angeles, it’s not yet clear whether she’ll face Republican Spencer Pratt or Democrat Nithya Raman.

Bass has about 37% of the vote to 29% for Pratt and 21% for Raman so far, with approximately half of the expected vote tallied.

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Speaking to supporters on election night, Raman, a member of the Los Angeles City Council, said that “tonight may not give us a final answer on this race.”

“Many thousands of votes will be counted in the days ahead, and we may not get an answer we like, but regardless of what happens next, nobody, nobody can take away what all of us have built together,” she continued.

Pratt, meanwhile, was looking ahead to a potential matchup with Bass when he spoke to reporters.

“Now I have five months to get deep into every community that hasn’t heard my message to make them safe,” said Pratt, a former reality TV star. “So I’m actually very excited, because I felt very rushed. It’s a big city, and I was not able to talk to as many people as I look forward to talking to.”

Bass also projected optimism, telling her backers, “We got a lot more to go, but so far it’s looking good.”

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Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots

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Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots


Lucy Campbell

Millions of voters across the country are heading to the polls today in crucial primaries in a slew of key gubernatorial, Senate and House races.

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Here’s a quick rundown of what we’re watching:

California
Voters are casting ballots on who should lead the nation’s most populous state (and the world’s fourth largest economy), where there is no clear leader among candidates vying to advance in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic governor Gavin Newsom. The race for Los Angeles mayor is also on the ballot, along with a series of high-stakes US House contests in the state’s newly redrawn congressional districts – which are set to play an outsized and potentially decisive role in the battle for power in Washington in November’s midterm elections. My colleague Lauren Gambino has more:

Iowa
Per my colleague Chris Stein, with Trump’s approval ratings deep underwater, gas prices high and historical political trends favoring the party out of power, Democrats this year are considering a comeback in Iowa, putting the state at the center of their campaigns to win back control of both the US House and the Senate. That effort for a “once-in-a-generation” breakthrough in the GOP-dominated state is being led by pro-hunting Democrat Rob Sand, who is running for governor. Chris wrote about him below. Democrats also believe they have a shot at winning three of the state’s US House seats and a competitive chance at securing a US Senate seat, where the GOP frontrunner recently called Trump’s war on Iran a “political liability”.

New Jersey
One of this year’s most closely watched House midterms will take place in the battleground district currently represented by now-infamous Republican Tom Kean Jr, who has drawn public scrutiny and concern after missing more than 100 House votes due to an undisclosed illness. Voters are deciding which Democrat will run against him in November – and the seat is a must-win for the party. The frontrunner, veteran army trauma surgeon and political newcomer Adam Hamawy, has secured endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. My colleague Joseph Gedeon has more:

New Mexico
Contests in the state include primaries for congressional seats, a US Senate seat and a long list of statewide offices, but the governor’s race is the main event. Deb Haaland, who was Joe Biden’s interior secretary, is running for the Democratic nomination, which could put her on a historic path for Native American leaders.

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Montana
In Montana, a five-way Democratic fight is under way for the retiring Republican senator’s seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former president of the University of Montana, is outraising them all at the moment but they’re refusing to step aside, Politico reports this morning.

South Dakota
The race is on for state governor, Sioux Falls mayor, a US Senate and House seat, a Republican primary for local lawmakers. The incumbent GOP governor Larry Rhoden faces three primary challengers in his first run for a full term. He stepped up into the role from the lieutenant governorship when the former governor, the since-ousted Kristi Noem, left to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

The Associated Press contributed reporting

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Key events

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Joseph Gedeon

On the day Donald Trump endorsed him as a tireless advocate for New Jersey’s seventh district, the representative Tom Kean Jr was, as he has been since early March, nowhere to be found.

Kean, a New Jersey Republican, was last seen when he cast a House floor vote on 5 March, and he is running unopposed in Tuesday’s Republican primary. The Democratic race in his district, meanwhile, has attracted multiple candidates and ample fundraising.

In late April, his office said he was dealing with a “personal medical issue” and would be back “very soon”. He told the New Jersey Globe last month he expected to return within “the next couple of weeks”. In the meantime, Kean’s social media accounts have continued posting regularly, with staff attending ribbon-cuttings and graduation ceremonies on his behalf.

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California Democratic gubernatorial candidate criticized over meeting with trans athlete | Fox News Video

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California Democratic gubernatorial candidate criticized over meeting with trans athlete | Fox News Video


Roxanne Hoge and Stella Escobedo delve into the latest Berkeley IGS poll, revealing the frontrunners in California’s heated gubernatorial race. The discussion extends to the Los Angeles mayoral race, where candidates Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt are locked in a tight contest. Panelists weigh in on candidate endorsements and the broader political landscape ahead of the upcoming elections.



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