Two Republican candidates are leading the latest poll in California’s gubernatorial race amid concerns that Democrats could be locked out of the general election in the solidly blue state.

Newsweek reached out to the California Democratic and Republican parties for comment via email.

Why It Matters

California is a solidly Democratic state that rarely elects Republicans to statewide office. However, Democrats are facing a potential challenge in next year’s gubernatorial race. The Golden State uses a unique “jungle primary” system where all candidates, regardless of their party, appear on the same ballot and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election. This means there is a possible, even if unlikely, scenario where two Republicans could advance to the general election and lock Democrats out of the race.

A string of recent polls suggests that could be a possibility in the race next year to replace retiring Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who cannot run for a third term due to term limits.

What To Know

California’s gubernatorial race has drawn the interest of several well-known Democrats in the state including Representative Eric Swalwell, former Representative Katie Porter, former Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Xavier Becerra, businessman Tom Steyer, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Controller Betty Yee.

By contrast, two well-known Republicans—Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and commentator Steve Hilton—are in the race.

The math problem for Democrats would be if the high number of Democrats split the vote in a way that allows Bianco and Hilton to narrowly advance to the general election. Early polls show that as a possibility, though there is still time for Democratic voters to coalesce around specific candidates before June’s primary.

On Thursday, pollster Civic Lens Research released a survey showing Bianco and Hilton advancing to the general election. Hilton led with just under 18 percent of the vote, while Bianco followed with about 14 percent.

Swalwell placed third with about 12 percent support, while Porter and Steyer followed with 9 and 7 percent support, respectively. Still, many voters are still unsure of who they are going to support—and could be decisive in the race. Thirty-one percent said they were undecided in the poll.

The poll surveyed 400 likely California primary voters via a web questionnaire sent by text message between December 14 and 16.

Other polls have also showed a Democratic lockout as a possibility. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from December 1-2, showed Bianco leading with 13 percent, while Hilton and Swalwell were tied at 12 percent. An FM3 poll showed Hilton lead with 18 percent, followed by Bianco and Swalwell at 17 percent. It surveyed 821 likely voters from November 30 to December 7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Zev Yaroslavsky, a former member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors and director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Newsweek polls are “largely reflecting name identification and party identification.”

“Voters are not focused on the June primary yet,” he said. “With only two Republicans in the mix along with half a dozen or more well-known Democrats, it is not surprising that most of the candidates are bunched up.”

Democratic and undecided voters are likely to “consolidate behind one or two prominent candidates” by the spring, Yaroslavsky said, noting that other candidates will either drop out or “just be relegated to electoral irrelevancy.”

“The top Democrat will assuredly receive far more than 13% in June. Republicans have a ceiling of what they can hope to get in California, and when Democratic and independent voters coalesce around on or two candidates, at least one of the leading Democratic candidates will come in first or second and advance to the general election. At that point, it’s the Democrats’ to lose,” he said.

What People Are Saying

Corrin Rankin, chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Newsweek in November: “Poll after poll shows Californians are tired of the decades of failure and corruption by Democrats, and they are turning to Republicans for real solutions and leadership on issues like affordability, public safety, and homelessness.”

Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, told Newsweek in November: “We look forward to electing another Democrat as California’s next Governor in 2026.”

What Happens Next?

The primary is set for June 2, 2026, so candidates will spend the first half of next year making their case to voters to convince them they are the best option to lead the nation’s most populous state.

The California Department of Education is requiring the Tahoe Truckee Unified School District to follow state law in another clash over transgender athletes in youth sports in the state. 

Currently, student-athletes in Tahoe Truckee Unified play sports in Nevada because of how close they are. But Nevada now bans transgender athletes in girls’ sports, which is against California state law. 

So after decades of playing in Nevada, California’s Department of Education is requiring the Tahoe Truckee Unified School District to compete in California to comply with state laws that allow student athletes to compete based on their gender identity.

David Mack is the co-founder of Tahoe Pride and describes the new youth sports divide in the Tahoe region.

“So no one’s happy, it’s really sad, it’s quite tragic in that way,” Mack said. “People feel really upset that the school moved so fast on this. They feel blindsided, they feel not listened to, and then other people, like the trans kids, are getting steamrolled over like they’re not recognized in this argument.”

Nevada state lawmakers passed a law in April requiring a mandatory physical signed by a doctor to deem the athlete male or female based on their birth sex. 

“This is a politically manufactured issue to try to divide people,” Mack said. 

The Tahoe Truckee Unified School District is responding to the California Department of Education with a solution that the district legally join the California Interscholastic Federation in 2026, but continue to play in the Nevada Interscholastic Activities Association through 2028.

When asked if transgender athletes would be able to compete while operating in the NIAA, the district said it’s “still in the early stages of this transition, and many details are still being developed.”

In an October letter addressed to the California Department of Education, the school district’s attorney, Matthew Juhl-Darlington, said the Tahoe Truckee Unified is “not aware of any transgender youth who have expressed interest in participating in its 2025-2026 athletic programs.”

“While the NIAA recently updated its polices to define ‘male’ and ‘female’ based on sex assigned at birth and not as reflected in an individual’s gender identity, as required under California law, the District is interpreting and implementing this policy in a manner consistent with California’s legal requirements,” Juhl-Darlington said in the letter. 

California Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley is opposed to the state order, arguing the weather conditions in Tahoe need to be considered.

“So in order to compete in a California league, you have to deal with this snowy weather and the travel dangers and so forth,” Kiley said.

The school board was expected to explain its solution to both join California’s CIF while playing in the NIAA through 2028 to parents and students Wednesday night at a board meeting.

So far, the California Department of Education has not said if it will accept this as a solution.