West
Balance of Power: Messy GOP primaries could boost Democrats in swing state races
Republicans are looking to take advantage of a difficult Senate election map for Democrats in November, but crowded primary races in top swing states could hurt the party’s attempts to capture key Senate seats, according to some experts.
“Campaign lore would suggest that any ‘divisive primary’ is going to advantage the other party at the polls in the general,” said Jacob Neiheisel, an associate professor of political science at the State University of New York at Buffalo.
In Nevada, which will have its Senate primaries June 11, and Michigan, which won’t see its primary elections until August, the Republican fields ended up being relatively large despite having clear frontrunners.
The Senate seats are both occupied by Democrats, with Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., running for re-election. However, Michigan became more competitive by Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., deciding to retire at the end of her term.
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Divisive primaries in Nevada and Michigan could make general elections more difficult for frontrunners Sam Brown and Mike Rogers, should they receive their states’ nominations. (Getty Images)
Nevada’s Senate race is one of the few contests considered a “toss-up,” according to non-partisan political handicapper the Cook Political Report. The Michigan election is labeled “Lean Democratic.”
“Trump’s expected endorsement is causing the Senate GOP to hold its breath,” Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, former top spokesman to Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and former chief of staff of the Senate Republican Conference, said of the primary in Nevada.
“If he endorses [Jeff] Gunter over Brown and his popularity, it could very well give Sen. Rosen and Democrats the upper hand at winning here,” he explained, referencing the former Trump ambassador to Iceland who is financing his own run against frontrunner Ret. Army Capt. Sam Brown in the GOP primary.
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Brown previously lost the Senate nod to Adam Laxalt. (Brandon Gillespie/Fox News)
There are several contenders vying for the Republican Senate nomination in Nevada, the most prominent being Brown, Gunter and former Nevada State Rep. Jim Marchant.
Rosen campaign spokesperson Johanna Warshaw told Fox News Digital in a statement, “While her extreme MAGA opponents like Sam Brown have been forced to spend the past year fighting to prove who is most loyal to Donald Trump and embracing a far-right agenda, Jacky Rosen is focused on winning the general election and sharing her record as one of the most bipartisan and effective senators who delivers for Nevadans.
“The messy MAGA Republican primary has been a stark contrast with Jacky’s record of working across party lines to lower costs for hardworking families and being an independent voice for Nevada.”
Fox News Digital reached out to Brown’s campaign for comment.
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While some suggested the drama of the primary season could bleed into the general election, others pushed back. According to Nevada Republican strategist Jeremy Hughes, “Crowded primaries are commonplace in today’s politics. In fact, Gov. Lombardo had a primary in 2022 and was ultimately successful in the general.
“Republican voters will be united come November. Joe Biden, Alvin Bragg and the Democrats are making sure of that.”
“I think that whether or not the GOP primaries in these states redound to the benefit of the Democrats is going to depend on several factors, including whether the Republican Party’s internal battles give the Democrats fodder that they can use against the nominee in the general election,” Neiheisel claimed.
Rogers was endorsed by Trump. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
As for Michigan, former President Trump has already weighed in, endorsing former Rep. Mike Rogers for the Republican nomination. However, this hasn’t stopped wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler, who is endorsed by former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, from continuing his bid. Former Rep. Justin Amash is also running for the nomination. Another former representative, Peter Meijer, recently suspended his primary campaign.
“The Trump endorsement of Rogers emerging as a consensus candidate after a complicated path to becoming the frontrunner is getting mixed reviews from both hardliners and establishment Republicans in the state,” Bonjean said.
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While Rogers is favored to remain the frontrunner and secure the nomination come August, Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe pointed out that “it only gives him three months to ramp up the general election campaign.”
“And if he has to continue to wage an actual primary battle against Amash and Pensler, he’s probably going to finish the primary with no money in the bank and have to replenish it,” he added.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., is favored to take the Democratic nomination, while also facing a primary challenger in actor Hill Harper. But Slotkin has notably spent little time campaigning against him, mounting a general election-focused bid.
Roe pointed to Slotkin’s fundraising prowess, predicting she will be “sitting on many millions of dollars” by the time the primary is over.
Slotkin is favored to win the Democratic nomination. (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)
“That becomes a much more expensive race for Rogers and for the [National Republican Senatorial Committee] and the Senate Leadership Fund,” he added.
As it stands, the Republican strategist thinks Pensler and Amash “are sand in Rogers’ gears in trying to build a campaign that can compete with someone like Slotkin.”
In a statement to Fox News Digital, the NRSC expressed confidence in both Rogers and Brown in the November election.
“Mike Rogers and Sam Brown are both leading their primaries by large margins because their opponents are never Trumpers and former Democrats. We’re confident that they will win their respective primaries and make Michigan and Nevada extremely competitive in November,” said NRSC spokesperson Maggie Abboud.
In his own statement, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) spokesperson Tommy Garcia said, “Senate Republicans’ roster of recruits is reeling from a series of reports uncovering their lies about their biographies, vulnerabilities tied to their finances and a lifetime of toxic statements and policy positions.
“Meanwhile, their primaries in states like Nevada and Michigan are erupting in chaos. The NRSC’s big bet to back a bunch of unvetted carpetbaggers is looking worse by the day.”
According to Neiheisel, the general election in both states is ultimately going to be determined by the candidates.
“The particular candidates that emerge from these contests are likely going to stand out as the largest determinant of the eventual outcome,” he said. “Candidate quality still matters even in a polarized era of politics.”
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NORTON, Kan. (WIBW) – A man was transported to a Denver-area hospital after he was seriously injured in a truck-motorcycle collision Monday morning in Norton County in northwest Kansas, officials said.
The crash was reported at 10:25 a.m. Monday on US-36 highway at Timber Ridge Lane, on the west side of the city of Norton.
According to the Kansas Highway Patrol, a 2010 Ford F-150 pickup truck that was westbound on US-36 attempted to turn south onto Timber Ridge Lane when it collided with a 1997 Harley-Davidson motorcycle that was traveling east on US-36.
The motorcycle collided with the passenger side of the Ford truck, which had turned in front of the bike, the patrol said.
The motorcycle rider, Frank J. Daniels, 73, of Boise, Idaho, was transported to Swedish Medical Center in Englewood, Colorado, for treatment of serious injuries. The patrol said Daniels wasn’t wearing a helmet.
The driver of the Ford truck, Ronald B. Zwickle, 77, of Norton, was reported uninjured. The patrol said Zwickle was wearing his seat belt.
Copyright 2026 WIBW. All rights reserved.
WASHINGTON ― Montana Republican Senate nominee Kurt Alme, who previously served as his state’s U.S. attorney, cut a plea deal in 2020 that allowed a tribal police officer who sexually abused a 6-year-old girl to serve less than a year in prison and avoid being registered as a sex offender.
Alme, who has President Donald Trump’s backing in his bid for Senate, served as Montana’s U.S. attorney in two stints. Trump appointed him both times; Alme served in the role from September 2017 through December 2020, and then again from March 2025 through March 2026.
Alme oversaw the case of Mychal Thomas Damon, who was indicted in June 2019 by a grand jury on one count of abusive sexual contact with an individual under 12, which carries a maximum punishment of a lifetime in prison, a $250,000 fine and no less than five years to a lifetime of supervised release. The average sentence for this crime is less severe, but still significant: 62 months in prison, no fine and 143 months of supervised release, based on an analysis of 2025 data provided by the U.S. Sentencing Commission.
Damon, 28, had admitted he touched the 6-year-old’s genitals. But in February 2020, Alme’s office filed a plea deal in his case that reduced his charge to felony child abuse.
The changes in the plea deal raised the alleged age of the victim from below 12 to below 14, stripped out the language of sexual intent and moved the offense out of the federal sex crime framework, meaning Damon would no longer be required to register as a sex offender. It jointly recommended Damon be sentenced to the time he’d already served of 324 days, and required only a sex offender evaluation. Alme’s name appears on the bottom of the document, along with a signature by his assistant U.S. attorney, Cassady Adams.
In June, Alme filed a sentencing memorandum that described Damon’s conduct, which included details of him touching the child’s vagina with skin-to-skin contact, and the adverse effect it had on her mental health. Local reporting at the time said the victim had told a therapist “Mychal touched me” and hurt her by putting his fingers in her “hoo hoo.”
Ten days later, Alme announced Damon was being sentenced to time served of 324 days and two years of supervised release. As of June 2026, Damon is not listed in the national sex offender registry or in Montana’s Sexual or Violent Offender Registry.
It’s not clear why Alme reduced the charges against Damon as significantly as he did. During part of his tenure as U.S. attorney, his office declined 64% of sexual assault cases. He conceded in a 2019 interview that this “is something that has to be worked on,” and noted that a lot of these cases are declined due to “weak or insufficient evidence.”
Asked what happened in Damon’s case, an Alme campaign spokesman on Thursday lashed out at unnamed Democrats for trying to make him look bad.
“Kurt’s liberal opponents are twisting the facts to manufacture a fake narrative that exploits crimes against women and children,” said Alme’s spokesperson. “Department of Justice policy required defendants to plead to the most serious charge readily provable from the evidence. Kurt strongly supported the Multi-Disciplinary Teams on our Native American reservations, led by his office, to support investigations of crimes against children and to support victims.”
His spokesperson also pushed back on the idea that Alme unreasonably declined a large number of sexual assault cases during his tenure as U.S. attorney.
“Kurt’s office prosecuted every viable sexual abuse felony referred to it and pursued the most serious charge readily provable from the evidence,” the spokesperson said. “Many ‘declined’ cases were to allow more appropriate tribal prosecutions ― they were not dropped. Kurt will bring his years of experience prosecuting criminals and working with the Sexual Assault Response Teams on our Native American reservations to the U.S. Senate to strengthen investigations, support victims, and better protect women and children.”
The campaign pointed HuffPost to a 2010 report by the Government Accountability Office that found the most common reason for U.S. attorney’s offices to decline sexual abuse cases referred in from Indian country was “weak or insufficient admissible evidence.” It also highlighted statements of support for Alme in an October 2025 press release by Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), when he celebrated Alme being confirmed as U.S. attorney.
Alme is currently running for Daines’ Senate seat, and Daines went out of his way to clear the path for him. In a stunning and orchestrated maneuver, the two-term senator in March abruptly withdrew from reelection as Alme filed to run for his seat, minutes before the state’s filing period closed. Daines’ last-minute change-up was an effort to block potential Democrats or any major Republican challenger from jumping into an open Senate race.
Alme is taking on Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent candidate Seth Bodnar in the November election. Bankhead and Bodner have been duking it out for weeks, with each appealing to different factions of the Democratic party and calling on the other to drop out.
Bankhead, a retired Air Force officer, unexpectedly won the Democratic primary earlier this month, boosted by grassroots supporters and more than $2.5 million in outside money from a progressive veterans’ PAC. But Bodnar, a former University of Montana president who did not appear on the primary ballot, has bipartisan endorsements from prominent establishment figures, including former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and former Republican Gov. Marc Racicot. He’s also significantly outraised Bankhead and Alme.
This Senate seat is rated “solid Republican” by the nonpartisan Cook’s Political Report, meaning Alme is well-positioned to win the general election. But this race would be more competitive if Bodner and Alme were going head to head, without Bankhead in the running.
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