Winter is coming, Arizona. Here’s what NOAA, AccuWeather, almanac are predicting

• NOAA predicts a warm and dry winter for Arizona during the 2025-2026 season.
• AccuWeather forecasts historically higher temperatures and a dry season, with potential for late-season rainfall in January.
• The Old Farmer’s Almanac anticipates a warm winter but with rain and above-average mountain snow in some areas.

Winter starts Dec. 21, and as those colder months creep closer, Arizonans want to know what they should anticipate.

Before you start breaking out your sweaters and making your northern Arizona ski trip plans, you need to know what this winter has in store.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have released their predictions for what the following winter months should bring, including snowfall, rain and temperatures.

To best understand what Arizona weather should bring for this winter season, 2025 to 2026, here’s everything to know about the Old Farmer’s Almanac, AccuWeather and the NOAA predictions.

When is the first day of winter 2025?

Winter starts on Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025.

When will it snow in Flagstaff? Here’s what weather experts predict for snow in Flagstaff and northern Arizona

NOAA predicts winter will be dry and warm

NOAA predicts that most of Arizona will be 60-70% above normal temperatures for the months of November, and December. Although the southwest corner of Arizona shows it will be 40-50% above normal temperatures.

For the months of January, February and March, central and southern Arizona shows the temperature would be 40-50% above normal, while northern parts of Arizona would be 33-40% above normal temperatures.

For the months of November and December, precipitation for the western half of the state was expected to be 33-40% lower than usual according to NOAA. While the eastern part of Arizona similarly shows a 40-50% lower than normal precipitation prediction.

January, February, and March precipitation predictions remain similar, with the central and southern parts of Arizona having 40-50% lower-than-normal precipitation and the northern part predicted to have 33-40% lower-than-normal precipitation, according to NOAA.

This will make for a dry winter with little snow due to the lack of moisture in the air and warm temperatures.

AccuWeather predicts a warmer winter with late season rainfall

The Southwest’s temperatures should run historically higher than usual due to warmth in the Pacific Ocean. According to AccuWeather’s map, central and southern Arizona’s temperatures will run at about three degrees or more above average based on historical temperatures in this region.

The warmth from the Southwest will also create a drier-than-usual season with precipitation expected to be 50-74% lower than usual, making out-of-season wildfires possible, according to AccuWeather.

Yet, January will most likely bring rainfall for the Southwest. However, come February, Arizona will return to being warm and dry, potentially bringing near-record temperature highs for February.

Lower than average snow was also expected in northern Arizona, according to AccuWeather. However, an early burst of winter storms was expected, with a lull of snow in the mid-winter season, then a resurgence in the late months of winter.

Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts warm winter with rain, snow in mountains

Phoenix and Tucson should expect warmer winter weather. The coldest temperatures were expected mid-November to early January, according to the almanac, with rain and mountain snow hitting various areas.

High elevation areas should prepare for snow in early December and January.

Snowfall was predicted to be above average in eastern parts of the desert Southwest region such as Show Low, with the snowiest periods being early December to mid-January, according to the almanac.

Flagstaff also should expect above normal snowfall and temperatures, and slightly-above-normal precipitation. According to the almanac the snowiest periods were set for late January to late March.