The Philadelphia Phillies (34-34) and Arizona Diamondbacks (41-27) meet Thursday in the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch at Chase Field is slated for 3:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 3-3
The Phillies rallied for back-to-back wins Wednesday (4-3, 10 innings) and Tuesday (15-3) after they dropped Monday’s series opener 9-8. After going 2-10 over a dozen road games from May 12-June 2, the Phils have gone 4-1 in their last 5 away from home.
Arizona had won 6 straight games while slashing a .316/.388/.517 (.905 OPS) prior to Tuesday’s loss. The Snakes have homered in 10 straight games; they own an .840 OPS over that span.
Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Ryne Nelson
Nola (5-5, 4.60 ERA) is making his 15th start. He has registered a 1.10 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 88 IP.
- Has struggled away from home, posting a 5.14 ERA with a 7.3 K/9 in 49 IP on the road
- Allowed 6 runs in his last start and owns a 5.33 ERA over his last 4 turns
- Current Arizona batters own an aggregate .976 OPS against him
Nelson (3-3, 4.95 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has notched a 1.46 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 through 67 1/3 IP.
- Pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his last outing and has authored a 3.04 ERA over his last 5 starts
- Has not fared well at home where he has 6.62 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 35 1/3 IP
Phillies at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -126 (bet $126 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +108 (bet $100 to win $108)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+126) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -104 | U: -118)
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Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
Arizona has overplayed its scoring profile and benefited from an easier-than-average schedule. The result is a club too far out over its skis in its record.
Philadelphia’s overall numbers swing a bit the other way, and we should expect better days for the Phils. Mix in a pitching match-up that likely has Nola undervalued as he’s been hurt by a low left-on-base rate (62.5%) and a high percentage of fly balls leaving the yard (13.6%).
BACK PHILADELPHIA (-126).
Run line/Against the spread
Four of 6 meetings between these clubs this season have been decided by 1 run. PASS on sneaking the visitors by with a cushion.
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Over/Under
The Under has a lean but also has an expensive price tag. AVOID.
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