California exodus and Latino voters altering Arizona’s politics

A once solidly red state has turned purple in recent elections because of an increase in moderate to liberal voters leaving California, and an increase in voters of color that tend to lean Democrat, experts have claimed.

Arizona has become one of the fastest-growing states in the country but was predominantly conservative before then-Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) thin victory in 2018. Voters went on to elect a Democratic governor, flip a long-held Republican senate seat, and help President Joe Biden secure the White House in subsequent elections.

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“A lot of that growth is Californians,” Arizona-based Republican consultant Stan Barnes told Fox News. “Even though they’re leaving the People’s Republic of California over its tax and regulatory restrictions, they still carry some of their progressive politics with them, and it shows in the election results.”

Even though the state has leaned further to the left since 2018, Republicans hope to return the state to its red roots in 2024. The Republican Party is hoping to flip Sinema’s seat, especially as the senator has not revealed her own reelection plans so far. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is the biggest challenger to the senator so far.

Barnes claimed candidate quality has contributed to Democrats’ success in recent years, with Democratic candidates largely running a centrist campaign. Republicans, he noted, have put forward candidates that were too far right.

“When Democrats run statewide in Arizona, they run as center-right as they possibly can,” Barnes said. “If you heard them campaigning, you’d think they’re Republicans. They have had good candidates the past two cycles, and we’ve put up some folks that were easily marginalized.”

Another Arizona strategist blamed conservative shortcomings in the state on the candidates’ failure to appeal to their own base, claiming that conservative voters are voting Democrat because of fringe candidates from the GOP.

“These vitriolic, tin foil hat-wearing, election-denying Republican maniacs are not succeeding in Arizona, and that’s not a result of increased power among Democrats,” Democratic strategist Stacy Pearson said. “It’s that they’re not appealing to their own base; they’re not appealing to the Republicans in Arizona.”

Barnes said he sees hope in Hispanic voters, who were largely expected to vote Democrat. Latino and Hispanic voters still vote more liberal, but support for Democrats has dwindled.

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“It turns out the Latino voter did not get that memo. And they don’t necessarily perform that way or register that way,” Barnes said.

Both strategists noted that the state is still conservative at its core but warned Democrats that centrists have fared well in recent elections while liberal candidates have not. Pearson claimed that anyone who believes the state has gotten more progressive “do so at their own peril.”