ASU football expert previews the Territorial Cup against Arizona, makes a score prediction

It’s the only game that really counts. No matter how good or bad—in this case, pretty terrible—the season has been, beating ASU is always No. 1 on the list of goals for Arizona.

And now comes that time, with an added bonus: No. 14 ASU (9-2, 7-2 Big 12) comes to Tucson on Saturday needing a win (and some help) to make the conference title game after being picked to finish last in the league back in July. The Sun Devils have more than doubled their win total from a year ago, while Arizona (4-7, 2-6) can do no better than half its 2023 win tally.

To better understand the Sun Devils, we reached out to Hod Rabino, publisher of DevilsDigest, for some insight, as well as a score prediction. Below are his feisty answers to our apathetic questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: ASU was picked to finish last in the Big 12 but enters the Territorial Cup alive to make the conference title game. What were the biggest keys to this unexpected turnaround?

Hod Rabino: “I know that establishing a team culture might sound like a bad football cliche, but that’s exactly what has helped Kenny Dillingham turn this program around so quickly. Even people outside of ASU know how badly this program was run before Dillingham arrived, and just changing the whole mindset of the team was a necessity, not a luxury. I would also say that because this coaching staff does an outstanding job in talent evaluation, having them rebuild the team in a transfer portal era was an absolute godsend, especially when there were no limitations on how many players could be added in a given year. When you have a massive roster turnover, this is an element that helped the Sun Devils quite a bit. You can objectively say that in the last two years, there have been many more bullseyes than misses when it comes to the addition of newcomers. Ultimately, no matter how good of a coach you are, you’re only as good as the caliber of players at your disposal, and Arizona State has done very well in that regard.”

Sam Leavitt has only thrown five interceptions in 265 attempts, a year after four ASU quarterbacks (and a running back and a tight end) combined to throw 14 picks. What has enabled Leavitt to avoid mistakes?

“It goes without saying that ball security is an aspect that’s important to every team, but I also feel that some teams might emphasize this more than others, and ASU definitely falls into that category. Then you also have the angle that because he’s a young quarterback, the coaches are careful not to put too much on his plate, and really, with an outstanding ground attack, there really is no reason to overextend any quarterback playing on this year’s team.

“There’s also something to be said about Leavitt being mature beyond his years for a redshirt freshman. Even though he has a very fiery personality, he is still humble enough to be a true student of the game and do all the so-called work when nobody’s watching work in order to better himself. Lastly, the fact that not only Dillingham but also offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo has a proven track record of developing quarterbacks has only helped Leavitt with his overall play. When we talk about hitting the bullseye ASU recorded in the transfer portal, he is probably the biggest example of that.”

Cam Skattebo has been a beast for the Sun Devils with 14 rushing TDs and two receiving scores. What are his best attributes, and is there anything he can’t do?

“Somebody put it best that Skattebo is the type of running back that would do well decades ago when players were leather helmets and no face masks. In other words, he is as old school as old school comes, runs violently with a punishing style, always looking for contact. And that’s a style of running that is becoming less common in college football. In 2023, when this ASU offense was struggling quite a bit, he still was the brightest spot on that unit. And for someone who came last year out of the FCS ranks I think that was greatly important for his confidence because he came in with even a better mindset into the season, reshapped his body and was driven even more to succeed knowing that the coaching staff was going to put even more responsibilities on the shoulders.

“He’s definitely a very well-rounded player who does a great job in blitz pickups and is an exceptional receiver out of the backfield. It’s hard to say what his weaknesses are, but if there are any shortcomings to his game, the coaching staff is savvy enough to mask those and not ask him to try and execute assignments where he may have difficulties in doing so. Even in very average seasons or worse, ASU has had a great track record of running backs for the last six years, with all of them on NFL rosters this season, and he still may be the best one of them all.”

Jordyn Tyson has had a breakout season at receiver, with 67 catches for 958 yards and nine TDs. What has made him the No. 1 option in the passing game, and who else could have a big day in Tucson?

“Tyson is a type of wide receiver who is just very versatile; he can line up in all the wide receiver roles and still excel no matter what assignment is given to him. He’s very sure-handed and may not have blazing speed, but he is still quick and agile enough to separate himself from defenders. He is very savvy, which allows him to make plays in tight quarters. The chemistry that he and Leavitt have is truly special, and those two have been dialed in for the last few weeks, producing big plays with regularity.

“Tight end Chamon Metayer and Xavier Guillory have been the other aerial targets for Arizona State, although not putting up the numbers that Tyson has registered. At running back, Kyson Brown has been number two in the pecking order. Much has been said that aside from Skattebo and Tyson, not many other skilled players on offense have been able to make their mark. I’ll be curious to see if that may take place this Saturday because it would make the offense that much more potent.”

Who are the defensive players that Arizona has to be most concerned with?

“Arizona State has put up modest numbers when it comes to pass rush, but its best player in that department is defensive end Clayton Smith. CJ Fite, on the interior of the defensive line, has been one of the primary run stoppers. At linebacker, Keyshaun Elliott has been the leader, especially against the run, while fellow linebacker Jordan Crook is a shiftier player who does a great job in coverage and disrupting the opponent’s passing game.

“At nickel back, Shamari Simmons, who was slated to start at safety but, because of injuries and departures, was moved over to this new role, has played exceptionally well and is a more physical presence in a position where you normally would see a smaller defensive back. Both cornerbacks Javan Robinson and Keith Abney II have really been coming into their own the last few weeks, and needless to say, they will have to play very well against a dangerous Arizona passing offense.”

Kenny Dillingham has managed to turn around ASU in just two seasons, a year quicker than Jedd Fisch did at Arizona, but that may also make him a hot commodity when the coaching carousel starts up. What are the chances Dillingham might look to leave for a bigger job, and how much would ASU be willing to pay to keep him?

“I know that in college football, you never say never, but I just can’t see Dillingham leaving his alma mater anytime soon. This is his dream job, he grew up here in the Valley, and he did not come to take this job and use it as a stepping stone. He worked hard and succeeded in getting both of his coordinators significant pay raises and longer contracts, and that’s not something that you bother to do if you know that you’re not going to be here next year. I don’t know if anybody can etch in stone whether he’s going to retire here, especially when he’s only 34 years old, but for more than the foreseeable future, I would totally expect him to stay in Tempe.”

Prediction time. Does Arizona play spoiler, while retaining the Cup for a third straight year, or does ASU continue its magical season and get its first rivalry win since 2021? Give us a score prediction.

“It goes without saying that this is a tough game to predict, and even though all Arizona has to play for is being the spoiler to ASU’s path to the Big 12 title game, that is more than enough motivation for the Wildcats. At the same time, it’s not only the fact that the Sun Devils want to keep this magical season going and play in Dallas a week from Saturday, but they obviously have revenge on their mind after being trounced in Tempe last year.

“This is a very different ASU team on many levels from the squad that Arizona beat the last two years, and this is also a Sun Devil team that has rose to the occasion when they had to as demonstrated in their wins over Kansas State and BYU. It will be anything but an easy affair for Arizona State and anybody who watched their games or even just looked at the box score knows that the vast majority of their wins have been dramatic and take you on a roller coaster ride. And on Saturday, it won’t be any different. I am picking Arizona State to win 31-26.”