The Sunday Minefield – October 30, 2022

It’s laborious to consider however the November normal election is simply 9 days away! Greater than 28,000 Alaskans have already voted. As anticipated, there have been a couple of October surprises this week. One of many strangest being Republican Charlie Pierce’s operating mate, Edie Grunwald, introduced she’s executed with outdated Charlie. A lawsuit was filed that challenges West Anchorage Democratic Home candidate Jennie Armstrong’s residency claims. And the lightsabers from the pro-Kelly Tshibaka PAC lastly arrived!

Don’t neglect to tune into our dwell election protection on November 8! I might be joined by Mark Begich, Charisse Millett, and Ivan Moore. We may have outcomes, evaluation, and candidate interviews. Take a look at this nice promo video made by Cale Inexperienced.

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Edie is Out

Inevitably there are at all times one or two October surprises earlier than a normal election. One this week gained’t have a lot materials impression on the election however is nonetheless fascinating. Edie Grunwald, the operating mate of Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Pierce, introduced she is bailing on Charlie. Nevertheless, it’s simply symbolic because the withdrawal deadline was in early September. Her choice got here after a lawsuit alleging sexual harassment in opposition to Pierce was filed by his former assistant when he was Kenai Peninsula Borough mayor. Grunwald ran for lieutenant governor in 2018, ending second in a six-way Republican major. Her previous with the Nationwide Guard scandal was a marketing campaign challenge. Possibly the third time would be the attraction for Edie.

Pierce has by no means been a critical candidate. He and Grunwald acquired simply over 6% of the vote within the major. But it surely was sufficient to get them within the top-four for the final. With Edie bailing and endorsing Republicans Mike Dunleavy and his operating mate Nancy Dahlstrom, the little help they’d is now even smaller. Pierce and Grunwald have been at all times going to get the fewest votes within the normal. And because the solely different Republican ticket, most of their second place votes have been going to Dunleavy/Dahlstrom. The questions now are:

1. What share does Pierce/Grunwald get on the primary spherical? I’m guessing round 5%.
2. What share does Dunleavy/Dahlstrom get on the primary spherical? I’m guessing round 45%.
3. What number of Pierce/Grunwald votes recycle to Dunleavy/Dahlstrom? Most of them will however some individuals will bullet vote or rank one of many different two tickers second.

If the second votes of Pierce/Grunwald don’t get Dunleavy/Dahlstrom over the 50% threshold, then it can get fascinating. The query will then be who will get third place, Gara/Prepare dinner or Walker/Drygas? After which how will their votes get reallocated? Sadly, we are going to all have to attend for 2 weeks after the election to search out out.

Jennie Not From the Block 

A lawsuit has been filed in opposition to the Division of Elections that challenges the candidacy of West Anchorage Democratic Home candidate Jennie Armstrong. This lawsuit comes after a Landmine article was revealed that factors out that Armstrong, based on her personal phrases and actions, moved right here in June of 2019. She claimed she moved right here on Might 20, 2019 on her declaration of candidacy, which was filed on June 1.

The Alaska Structure requires that legislative candidates should be Alaska residents for 3 years once they file for workplace. Armstrong got here to Alaska on Might 10, 2019 an a pre-planned journey to go to her now-husband. She stayed in Alaska for round ten days, then left to proceed her trip across the decrease 48. She got here again to Alaska in June 2019. However two non-resident fishing licenses she obtained in June 2019 listed a Louisiana handle as her residence, not the Anchorage handle she now claims she was dwelling at. And there’s one other fascinating truth within the lawsuit. Alaska Statute Sec. 01.10.055 Residency states:

(a) An individual establishes residency within the state by being bodily current within the state with the intent to stay within the state indefinitely and to make a house within the state.

(b) An individual demonstrates the intent required below (a) of this part

(1) by sustaining a principal place of dwelling within the state for a minimum of 30 days or for an extended interval if an extended interval is required by legislation or regulation; and

The final half says you must maintain a principal place within the state for “a minimum of 30 days” to determine residency. Armstrong confirmed up in Alaska on Might 10 by her personal admission. Which, based on the statute, would imply the soonest she may set up residency can be June 10. This implies her candidacy is ineligible. However the Division of Elections licensed her candidacy after she filed as a result of they take individuals at their phrases once they file for workplace. They solely examine if somebody recordsdata a criticism, which nobody did for Armstrong. Her residency challenge solely turned obvious to me after I lately noticed her official candidate assertion. In that assertion, she says she has been a resident since 2019.

A decide ought to be assigned to the case tomorrow. The lawsuit references the continuing case in opposition to Consultant David Eastman (R – Wasilla). In that case, a decide ordered the Division of Elections to not certify his race till after the trial. It might be ironic if the case in opposition to Eastman, a Republican, is used to delay the certification within the case in opposition to Armstrong, a Democrat. The one different candidate on the poll in opposition to Armstrong is Republican Liz Vazquez. Armstrong will simply win the election. However what if the court docket finds her ineligible after she wins? Issues may get very free in West Anchorage and the State Home.

Different Happenings 

After a number of delays, the Kelly Tshibaka lightsabers lastly arrived! The PAC who ordered the 20,000 lightsabers put out this video after they handed them out. It’s undoubtedly one of many weirder moments of this entire marketing campaign cycle. The funniest half is the lightsabers have been made in China.

The Debate for the State for the U.S. Home and U.S. Senate races have been this week. Just like the gubernatorial debate, candidates have been restricted to brief solutions so there was not a lot substance. There have been a couple of noteworthy moments. Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D – Alaska) wore the late Don Younger’s iconic bolo tie. Libertarian Chris Bye gave some traditional libertarian solutions. And Senator Lisa Murkowski (R – Alaska) went after Kelly Tshibaka’s Alaska bona fides for under transferring again to Alaska in 2019.

This Week’s Unfastened Unit 

This week’s designee is a primary timer and somebody I by no means thought would attain Unfastened Unit standing. However as everyone knows, everybody in Alaska politics has the capability to get free, particularly throughout marketing campaign season. This week’s Unfastened Unit is Republican State Home candidate Stanley Wright. On Tuesday, Wright’s marketing campaign had a legislation agency ship a stop and desist letter to Ted Eischeid, Wright’s Democratic opponent. The letter references a lit piece from Eischeid that criticizes Wright’s function in Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson’s to date failed try and cope with homelessness.

Sending a stop and desist letter to a political opponent by itself is free. However this one is one other degree of free. The letter says Wright “has no engagement with homelessness in his function as an worker on the Municipality of Anchorage.” Anticipate it.

A Might 10 press launch from the Municipality of Anchorage particularly about Stanley Wright talks about his function in serving to remedy homelessness. The press launch quotes Joe Gerace, so there’s that. Wright can also be listed as attending a minimum of two Municipality of Anchorage Housing, Homelessness, and Neighborhood Improvement conferences. You actually can’t make this shit up. Traditional Unfastened Unit conduct by Stanley Wright.

You probably have a nomination for this week’s Unfastened Unit, or when you’ve got any political information, tales or gossip (or any outdated pics of politicians or public officers) please electronic mail me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.