ANALYSIS: Alaska’s post-election review – what does it mean?

Two weeks ago, I published my predictions for the 2024 general election. You can find them here. It is time to review the actual election results and see where I was right and where I got it wrong.

1 – I predicted Donald Trump would win Alaska’s three electoral college votes and it wouldn’t be close. I was right. Based on the most recent unofficial results with 401 of 403 precincts reporting, Trump won by 55.5% to 40.43%. This prediction really wasn’t much of a stretch. Trump won Alaska the last two times he ran for president.

2 – I predicted Nick Begich would defeat Mary Peltola, but it would be a close election and, in a reverse RCV twist, Peltola could lose in an RCV runoff because of the campaign of a Democrat carpetbagger who lives outside the state, by the name of Eric Hafner.

My prediction was remarkably accurate. Begich beat Peltola by 49.45% to 45.45%. Although Begich is leading by a 4% margin, he failed to get the 50% +1 vote required by the crazy RCV system we use in this state. So, this race will go to an RCV automatic runoff.

Democrat Erich Hafner received almost 1% of the votes, which would have been enough to give Begich the race outright. Begich should easily win this contest, but whenever RCV comes into the picture, weird things can happen. Yet another reason to hate RCV, more on that later.

3 – I predicted Sarah Vance would win the State House District 6 race, but it would go to an RCV runoff because RCV permitted the continued participation of Republican Dawson Slaughter from Anchor Point. I was right on both accounts

Sarah Vance did win, but not with enough votes to win outright. This race will also go to an automatic RCV runoff. Vance should prevail in the runoff as she leads Brent Johnson by 47.69% to 42.85%, almost 5%. Dawson Slaughter received 9.26% of the votes. Most of his votes should go to Vance.

The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.

Slaughter’s continued participation in this race denied Sarah Vance an outright victory. Somebody in the GOP ought to pull Slaughter aside and explain to him how politics works. Slaughter just torpedoed his political career in the GOP. Republicans have long memories and many of them will hold a grudge against Slaughter if he runs in any future election. Vance should prevail in the RCV runoff, but the biggest loser in this race is not Brent Johnson, it is Dawson Slaughter’s political future.

4 – I predicted Ballot measure 1, which raises the minimum wage would pass, and voters would come to regret it. This issue was passed by a wide margin by voters believing they are voting for their own pay raise. They don’t realize that as employees become more expensive, employers find ways to work without them, like using more automation.

I was right on the first part of this prediction, and only time will tell if higher minimum wages results in fewer minimum wage workers in Alaska, like it has in California after they passed a similar measure.

5 – I predicted Ballot Measure 2, repealing RCV would also pass. Alaskans hate this voting system that was foisted off on us by outside interest groups and dark money. The issue of RCV caught our state unaware in 2020 when it originally and only barely passed, supported by large amounts of money from groups outside of our state. When Mary Peltola’s first election victory in 2022 occurred, it woke all Alaskans up to the flaws in the RCV system. Fortunately, because Ballot Measure 2 has passed repealing RCV, we will not have this fraudulent voting system in future elections. This should be a lesson for other states considering similar measures.

So, if I was right on these issues, where did I get it wrong? The only thing I missed was my prediction of high voter turnout. I predicted a high turnout in a presidential election year that would be in the high 60% range, approaching 70%. The actual turnout in House District 6 was only 50.12%.

In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, voter turnout in District 6 was 66.47% and 69.19%, respectively. How could we underperform by this wide of a margin in a very polarizing election year that should have meant more interest in the election? I believe that many voters were intimidated by the RCV process and didn’t vote. They chose not to participate because they were confused by how to vote and didn’t want to get it wrong. If this is correct, it is a big indictment of the confusing RCV process and future elections should see a big increase in participation.

I went 5 out of 6 in my predictions, but what does it all mean? There were decisive Republican victories both statewide and nationally. This election was a repudiation of Democrats and Democrat policies. Everyday Americans turned out in record numbers and rejected the woke ideology that the Democrats have based their governance on for the past four years.

Americans don’t want the weird policies that Democrats are trying to force on the country. They don’t want to be forced to take experimental injections in order to keep their jobs. They don’t want boys playing girls sports. They don’t want runaway inflation just because politicians in Washington and Juneau want to reward their political allies with never ending deficit spending.

This election was a massive repudiation of the Democrats, and they need to wake up to the fact that their policies and their party are not wanted by the vast majority of Americans. The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.

The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.

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