Alaska's U.S. House race shifts to 'toss up'

Cook Political Report, which analyzes races across the country, has shifted the Alaska U.S. House race from the “Lean Democrat” category to “Toss Up,” in the latest ranking.

The change explains why Democrats, who have their own polling, are now suing the state Division of Elections to save the Rep. Mary Peltola, who is facing Republican Nick Begich in the general election, in her reelection bid.

Along with Peltola now being at risk in the general election, Cook Political Report says that Peltola’s “rural Antifa” colleagues in the House Blue Dog Democrats — Rep. Jared Golden of Maine and Rep. Marie Glusenkamp-Perez of Washington — are also facing tough elections. The new toss-up list for Democrats, per Cook Political Report, is here:

• AK-AL Peltola
• CO-08 Caraveo
• ME-02 Golden
• MI-07 OPEN (Slotkin)
• MI-08 OPEN (Kildee)
• NC-01 Davis
• NM-02 Vasquez
• OH-13 Sykes
• PA-07 Wild
• PA-08 Cartwright
• WA-03 Perez

Cook Political Report has seemed reluctant to move Alaska into the toss-up category due to Alaska’s weird open primary and ranked-choice general election scheme. But a recent poll by Cygnal shows that Begich is now even with Peltola. Alaska’s is the most Republican seat in the House that has a Democrat in it and is seen as a strong likelihood to flip back to Republican in November.

Working against Peltola is her own party, which has decided to sue to keep another Democrat, Eric Hafner, off of the November ballot. The Alaska Democrats have hired the nation’s top Democrat election lawyer, Marc Elias, known for sowing chaos in elections.

The lawsuit drains enthusiasm from the party and embarrasses its Alaska voting membership, since it makes Peltola look desperate and conniving. Peltola would have most certainly approved the party going forward with the lawsuit that is intended to be her life ring.

Also working against Peltola is that the National Republican Congressional Committee is now showing Alaskans Peltola’s actual record in Congress, which has her in the same radical category as Rep. Nancy Pelosi, voting against the interests of Alaskans time and again. Peltola has never had to run against her own immediate voting record and political judgment in the past, but has been able to rely on her personality, personal story, and looks.