Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes

A month without basketball is over. Well, WNBA basketball that is.

After a thrilling end to the Paris Olympic basketball tournament, the gold-medal winning Americans have again dispersed across the country to their respective WNBA teams. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league’s best record (21-4) and are looking to claim the franchise’s first title. After a bit of a slow start, the Las Vegas Aces are looming in fifth at 16-8 but could very well complete the WNBA’s first three-peat since the Houston Comets from 1997-2000. A number of other title contenders (the Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are between the two 2023 finals participants with significant aspirations, and those on the bottom half of the standings are seeking to throw their hats in the mix.

Ahead of games resuming on Thursday, here are five predictions for the rest of the season.

Which team will make a second-half surge?

Sabreena Merchant: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier back, and they’ve been plus-11.4 per 100 possessions with her on the floor. Cheryl Reeve no longer has the weight of the world on her shoulders after Team USA won gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s best defense all season, despite slumping in July in Collier’s absence. Now fully healthy, the Lynx can take advantage of the league’s easiest remaining schedule — a .441 opposing win percentage awaits, per Tankathon.

Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream finish in the top six of the standings? Probably not. But if you’re circling a franchise in the 7-12 range as a team that might look drastically different in the second half of the season, then keep a close eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The big reason to anticipate some positive change is that the time off gave the Dream’s best players time to heal. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle injury, and during Howard’s absence Atlanta won just a single game. She returned for the final game before the Olympic break, before helping the U.S. 3×3 team win bronze. Perhaps just as important, significant offseason acquisition Jordin Canada played only four games in the first half of the season due to two injuries. Her return could be an important jolt to Atlanta’s offense, which was 11th in offensive rating through the date of Howard’s injury on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Gray all playing together, Atlanta becomes a dangerous group to slow.

What is your biggest question?

Pickman: Will any Olympic stars who are not currently signed lift a franchise during the stretch run?

Perhaps this is a bit of recency bias, but I’m watching to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) sign with a WNBA franchise to help during the second half. Despite the prioritization rule coming into effect this May, all three are still eligible to join the W if they so choose because of a bit of a CBA loophole. Of course, not all of the WNBA’s contenders have the roster space to sign one of those players, but all three could be difference-makers. Johannes has proven to make an impact in bursts when she came off the New York Liberty bench. Williams showed fearlessness and high-level playmaking during the Olympics, and she has produced in the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t played in the WNBA since 2022, but she has won the EuroLeague MVP in each of the past two seasons and was the best player not named A’ja Wilson during the Paris Olympics.

Merchant: Do the Aces have enough in the tank to three-peat?

A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum each rank in the top 15 in minutes per game, plus they played 163, 115 and 90 minutes, respectively, during the Olympics (not counting the All-Star Game or other exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied for the most games remaining in the league at 16 and has the third-most difficult schedule. The Aces currently sit in fifth, so they have to leapfrog at least one team to get home-court advantage in the first round, and potentially two more for home-court in the WNBA semifinals. They already get every opponent’s best shot as the defending champions, and now they have to make up ground with a group that has been heavily worked during the first part of the season. It seems foolish to bet against Wilson and Co. after the successes of the past two years, but 2024 has been an extra challenge from the jump. On a neutral site with rest, I’d pick Las Vegas against any other team, but the conditions won’t be that favorable for the Aces going forward. Being able to come from behind after setting the pace last year will be a new task for this squad.

Who will win Rookie of the Year?

Merchant: Caitlin Clark.

Perhaps no rookie has ever come into the league with such high expectations. Not only was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever into a contender, but she carried the weight of the entire league on her shoulders. She has delivered in so many ways, helping the WNBA’s popularity rocket while steadily improving on the court. She leads the league in assists while pacing rookies in points per game. Clark also leads first-years in usage (24.8 percent) while posting the highest effective field-goal percentage (50.9 percent) among rookies who average at least 25 minutes in at least 18 appearances this season.

Clark’s individual numbers are hard to argue, but this isn’t a cut-and-dry case because Angel Reese has been more impactful for team success. Reese has a plus-3.4 net rating while Clark lags behind at minus-6.8. Furthermore, the Sky are 24.9 points per 100 possessions better when Reese plays, and the Fever are essentially neutral whether Clark is on or off the court. However, the team context isn’t enough to overcome what Clark has accomplished at the toughest position and while at the top of the scouting report.

Pickman: Caitlin Clark.

It feels like forever ago that Clark last played in a WNBA game. But lest anyone forget that in her final game before the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a new single-game WNBA record with 19 assists. Having to play 11 games in 20 days, Clark and the Fever got off to a slower start than many on the outside expected entering this season. But since Indiana’s early-season sprint, which ended June 2, Indiana is sixth in net rating and Clark’s net rating is nearly 16 points better per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers and seventh in total points, all while playing the second-most minutes of anyone across the WNBA. More than any single counting stat, if she is able to continue to improve on her first half the way she did through the months of June and July, then Indiana could also become the kind of opponent no other franchise wants to face in the playoffs.

Who will win MVP?

Pickman: A’ja Wilson.

She should win MVP and she will win MVP. The biggest question through the first half of the season was whether it will be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have come very close in recent years, but with a second half to the season as strong as Wilson’s first, that could be another aspect she adds to her legacy this summer.

Merchant: A’ja Wilson.

Exactly what Ben said. The WNBA can start creating this trophy for Wilson right now as she joins the three-timers club of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.

Who will win the WNBA championship?

Merchant: I was burned by picking New York at the start of the 2023 regular season and at the start of the 2023 finals, yet here I am, tempted by the Liberty again. They’ve had a superlative first half of the season and have the depth to stay fresh over the final month heading into the playoffs. Las Vegas retains the head coaching advantage, and the Aces have the best player in the world, but New York might just have the better team this time around.

Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s best team thus far, with Sabrina Ionescu’s continued ascension, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable reserve options all helping New York jump to a fast start. But the Aces haven’t done enough to sway me from my preseason title pick. Sure, the eight losses are the most they’ve had since 2022, but with Chelsea Gray in the starting lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 net rating, a mark slightly ahead of the Liberty. Wilson is better and so is Jackie Young. The Aces might not have home-court throughout this postseason, but I’m not convinced that will matter either.

(Photo of A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)